There's something eerily familiar about this situation.
Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos entered Kansas City last week with many questining the competenec of the Broncos signal-caller. Unlike Tom Brady and the New England Patriots 12 months ago, the Broncos didn't get blown out in a loss. They won the game on a late comeback. A comeback led by Manning and sealed with a Jamaal Charles turnover.
Despite the victory and the late drive, this game did little to ease the concerns surrounding Peyton Manning's ability to be a quality starting quarterback.
On 45 pass attempts, Manning completed 26 passes for 256 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. It was a rare game when his completion percentage was below 60 percent, Manning is a 65.4 percent career passer but through two games this year he is at 58.8 for the season. Manning's numbers were unspectacular but they still flattered his performance.
Throughout the game, even during his final drive of the game where he threw for 80 yards and the game-tying touchdown, Manning's passes were fluttering downfield without defined trajectories or timing. His ball placement was consistently erratic, repeatedly giving Chiefs defenders opportunities to make interceptions that they couldn't take advantage of.
Everything Manning was doing was a struggle because his arm strength has declined to the point that he can't throw with velocity to shorter routes or precision to deeper routes. Whether by a result of his lack of trust in his arm strength or simply a byproduct of his age and years of being hit, Manning has also become tentative in the pocket. He is giving up on throws to protect himself on sacks quicker than before and he can't make the same throws against pressure.
Writing Manning off based on how his play has been over the first two weeks of the season wouldn't be foolish. The fear to do so only exists because of what happened 12 months ago.
A year ago, Tom Brady was teetering on the edge of the end in Kansas City. Brady eventually went on to win the Super Bowl with the New England Patriots despite many calling for the Patriots to move on. Although Brady had struggled and hit the peak of those struggles in Kansas City, he hadn't suffered in the same way as Manning is now. Brady's body hadn't betrayed him in the way Manning's appears to have at this point. His arm strength wasn't what it once was, but he could still more comfortably push the ball downfield and throw with velocity to underneath routes.
Brady's play improved not for any other reason than he showed better consistency relying on his strengths to cover his weaknesses. Unfortunately for Manning, that's unlikely to be an option for him. Manning has been compensating for a lack of arm strength for three years now. He's done it in spectacular fashion. The problem is, his arm strength has continued to dwindle over that time.
Now, he's at the point where he can still be somewhat effective, but the warts are beginning to spread to the point that his limitations overshadow his strengths.
On this play, Manning completes his pass to tight end Virgil Green. While his pass i caught, his extremely poor arm strength can be seen. This is a relatively short throw. While Manning was never one to rocket his throws to his receivers, he could have flighted this pass with much greater velocty and a lower trajectory as recently as the first half of last season. Instead of getting the ball to his intended target early on this play, the tight end has to wait on an extremely slow ball that must climb up high before dropping back down.
Manning is at the left hashmark and throwing to the right sideline, but the receiver is just three yards downfield.
Throwing to receivers outside isn't really an option for Manning anymore. He can still do it, but it comes with huge risk because of his lost velocity and erratic accuracy. Manning may eventually figure out how to better control his touch passes with this new level of arm strength, but even if he does he will still be putting significant pressure on his teammates to make plays on the ball.
This play shows off similar issues as the first play. Manning does everything perfectly from a technical point of view, as he has done throughout his career. He releases the ball on time, locates the matchup that will give him a first down and is accurate in terms of his horizontal placement. What lets Manning down is his vertical placement and velocity. His pass should be arriving at chest level for Demaryius Thomas, arriving so quickly that cornerback Marcus Peters doesn't have any time to break on the ball.
Peters had a chance at intercepting the ball after Thomas tipped it into the air, but Manning's pass would have gone straight to the cornerback if Thomas hadn't made an athletic move to tip it. Manning couldn't blame this interceptable pass on his receiver, his pass floated.
Through the four quarters of this game, Manning should have been intercepted four times. He was only intercepted once and that play came when the defense squeezed down in coverage, understanding that the quarterback couldn't beat them deep, behind a blitz. When Manning tried to hurry his process in the pocket and get rid of the ball quickly, his pass floated off target and directly into the hands of the rookie Peters.
Arm strength is a threshold attribute. You need to have a certain amount of it to be an effective NFL quarterback, but having excess arm strength can often be overrated. Because of how many extremely strong armed passers are bad players, it's easy to say that arm strength doesn't really matter at all. That's not the case.
Deep passes are blunter than shorter throws in how they highlight arm strength deficiencies.
Since January, Manning has completed one of 17 pass attempts where the ball covers at least 20 yards. He is playing behind an offensive line that makes it difficult for him to complete passes downfield, but his receivers have been getting open. Manning has simply been missing him. He is getting the ball downfield, but his declining arm strength has disrupted his accuracy as he is now consistently overthrowing his receivers by significant margins.
Both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas should continue to get open downfield, but plays such as those in the above images have become too common as of late. This is more easily correctable than the lack of short-throw velocity and precision. It may simply require more repetition through practicies and games to get better timing down. Doing this would dramatically help Manning's production, but the chances of him becoming a consistent deep passer over just a below-average one are low.
Right now he is an awful deep thrower so that kind of improvement would require a huge jump.
One of the obvious improvements Manning and the Broncos as a whole can make is to alter their approach on offense. Head Coach Gary Kubiak wants to have his quarterback throw on the move, relying on heavy play fakes from under center. Even during his prime, this kind of philosophy didn't play to Manning's strengths. At 39 years of age with legs and an arm that has declined for almost a decade now, it's simply not a viable approach.
Manning must be put in his traditional offense, a shotgun-heavy approach that lets him read the defense and adjust routes before the snap to more easily find open receivers after the snap. A clear adjustment was made during the Week 2 matchup with the Chiefs to move to a more Manning-friendly system after the first half.
What remains unclear is if the Broncos want to make their offense better in the short term or pigeonhole their available personnel into a scheme that doesn't benefit them. Kubiak was brought in to make the running game better, but that running game has produced 130 rushing yards and averaged 2.8 yards per carry through two games. With Evan Mathis looking like he is as physically challenged as Manning and the rest of the offensive line outside of Louis Vasquez devoid of starting caliber talent, that is another area where it's unlikely that the team will improve.
The Broncos are a defensively-reliant team at this point. Manning can still produce fantasy points, like he did in Kansas City with three touchdown passes, but his week-to-week consistency won't be anywhere near what it has been previously and he shouldn't be considered anything more than a low-end starter at this point.
Other Thoughts from the Tape
Both Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson rebounded from their disappointing displays in Week 1. Peterson's fumbles were a major concern, but he has a track record of correcting ball security issues to fall back on. Bridgewater was never likely to be a highly productive starting quarterback. He is predisposed to taking care of the football and the Vikings are putting a clear emphasis on running the ball. He should still be a consistent performer and decent producer, but his Week 2 production is likely to be his typical output this season.
Amari Cooper's second game of the season was likely telling. The receiver wasn't really featured on intermediate routes, instead relying on a large number of screen plays and that one long touchdown reception for his production. He also had multiple drops in the game. Cooper is going to have big weeks, but his consistency can't be relied upon in this offense at this stage of his career.
Across from Cooper, wide receiver Michael Crabtree appears to have re-established the skill set he boasted during his prime. His quickness and precise route running has returned, making him a more viable threat to defensive backs on short and intermediate routes. He's not in an offense that will allow him to be hugely productive, but could be a strong matchup starter on occasion.
Tyrod Taylor had three interceptions in Week 2, but one came on what was essentially a hail mary and the other hit Charles Clay's hands. Taylor played well overall. He had his issues, but there should be no concerns over him losing his starting job to EJ Manuel now that Matt Cassel has been traded to the Dallas Cowboys. Taylor's value as a rusher isn't going anywhere while his passing ability is better than his reputation suggests.
Percy Harvin has been a problem for opposing secondaries through two weeks. The receiver isn't being asked to play as a gadget option as much anymore, giving him chances to run routes downfield and make receptions downfield. Harvin has nine receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown with one long pass interference penalty that could have easily been a 40+ yard touchdown.
Ben Roethlisberger's deep ball appears to be back. Roethlisberger has struggled pushing the ball downfield over recent times, but against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2 he was repeatedly connecting with his receivers on 20+ yard throws. With Martavis Bryant set to return soon and Antonio Brown beginning the season in his usual dominant form, this passing game should only get better.
No defense is going to be able to stop the Patriots in the red zone this year. Their tight end heavy formation that shifts into a wide receiver alignment based on the personnel of the defense is impossible to match up to because of Rob Gronkowski and Scott Chandler. Gronkowski scored one touchdown against Stephon Gilmore from that formation, while Chandler saved the Bills' blushes by dropping two touchdown receptions, one on a slant and one on a fade.
It's unlikely that Ryan Mallett holds onto the Houston Texans starting job for the full season. He is a one-speed passer with bad accuracy and no consistent decision-making process. Brian Hoyer lacks consistency as a decision-maker also and his accuracy is an issue too, but chances are the coaching staff will get frustrated enough with Mallett to move back to him at some point. O'Brien's inability to find a quarterback has already and will continue to hurt the output of DeAndre Hopkins and the rest of the team's receivers.
Jay Gruden assured everyone that Kirk Cousins will continue to start for Washington this year when he pointed out how much the quarterback is benefiting from having an offense built around his strengths. There is great irony there considering how Robert Griffin III was handled and criticized as the starter. Cousins' stats were better than his performance in Week 2. He missed a long touchdown and should have been intercepted on an awful overthrow that went straight to Trumaine Johnson.
Rookie running back Matt Jones isn't going to go anywhere, but neither should Alfred Morris. Morris is a proven commodity while Jones did have a fumble that took some of the shine off of his big display in Week 2. Jones was able to be so effective because the Washington offensive linemen were able to completely dominate the Rams linebackers. That gave him more space to take advantage of. It will be interesting to see Jones against a front that is better at closing off space.
Travis Benjamin's receptions against the Tennessee Titans were impressive plays, but plays that likely won't be indicative of what is to come. For one, the Browns are going back to the weak-armed, tentative decision-maker in McCown. More importantly, Benjamin was playing against a Titans defense that was missing Jason McCourty and not asking Perrish Cox to follow the young receiver on every snap. The Titans other cornerbacks are major liabilities.
