You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Don't Overthink Ezekiel Elliott because of Dak Prescott
Matt Bitonti's Offensive Line Rankings and Notes is a terrific resource for analysis of the supporting casts that make our fantasy skill players look good. His No.1 match-up to trust is his top-ranked Cowboy's offensive line vs. the Giant's 16th-ranked defensive front. Elliott looked every bit like the top candidate for offensive rookie of the year honors against the Seahawk's first-team unit two weeks ago, executing good cutbacks and earning yards after contact against Kam Chancellor, one of the big hitters in the game. Although Bitonti cautions readers that "inexperienced quarterbacks [like Prescott] could squander a choice match-up by not making the other team respect the pass," he still has Dallas as his top unit.
My View: Bitonti promoted a cautious approach with the 30th-ranked Broncos offensive line facing the top-ranked Panthers front seven. Trevor Siemian was surely an added factor in this equation but Siemian was actually a better fit for Gary Kubiak's offense because a quarterback working from center makes the ground game less predictable and, with Kubiak's play-action scheme, slows the defense's reaction time. Peyton Manning could not work efficiently from center and it forced a massive compromise in Denver's scheme last year.
A well-known bit of research among football coaches involves "explosive plays"—pass completions of at least 16 yards and rushes of at least 12. This was performed by Mike Eayrs, former head of research and development for the Green Bay Packers, who discovered that when an offense had a drive without an explosive play it only scored 9 percent of the time. When it had one explosive play, it scored 29 percent of the time. And when it had two explosive plays during a single drive, it scored 77 percent of the time.
C.J. Anderson totaled 24 touches, 120 yards, and 2 touchdowns last night and a lot of the credit goes to Siemian and the passing game. Despite multiple mistakes resulting from confusion inside the Carolina 30, Siemian generated enough intermediate gains to loosen up the defense so the ground game could thrive.
While Dak Prescott will not have the same command of the offense as Tony Romo, both Cian Fahey and I have documented Prescott's positives within a well-defined offense. He'll have plenty of opportunities to help the Cowboys generate these explosive plays and loosen up the run defense. Expect the same on Sunday—even if Prescott's regular season debut isn't as sterling as his preseason exploits.
Based on my study of rookies, Elliott is in a similar tier of talent as LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Cadillac Williams, and Doug Martin. According to the Game Log Dominator, all eight of these RBs rushed for at least 90 yards during their rookie debut.
Don't overthink Elliott. Start him if you got him.
2. Philadelphia's O-line + Lane Johnson = Good things For Ryan Mathews This Week
Bitonti's most notable offensive line upgrade for Week 1 is Philadelphia's unit, thanks to "intricacies of the league's disciplinary process appear to be working in favor of the Eagles" that will allow right tackle Lane Johnson to start (at least for this week) against Cleveland, Bitonti's worst front-seven defensive unit. The addition of Johnson upgrades the Eagles to No.2 on Bitonti's list.
My View: David Dodds, Sigmund Bloom and Maurile Tremblay all have Matthews as no worse than their 15th runner this week. and I think they're being cautious because of Carson Wentz debuting as a rookie starter.
I'm not telling you to get Mathews, but if you have him I think he'll outperform the expectations of all three projections this week and the Cleveland game will provide Mathews a decent showcase for you to trade him—especially if the NFL figures out this Lane Johnson fiasco by Week 2 and it suspends him until Week 11. According to Bitonti, the Eagles haven't found a suitable replacement.
3. Use your Share of Tyrod Taylor to Sammy Watkins
Ari Ingel drops a compelling stat about the Bills quarterback and primary receiver in The Docket: Week 1. Watkins "accounted for nearly 40% of Taylor's passing yards and 44% of Taylor's touchdown throws [last year]. Ravens CB Jimmy Smith also allowed as many touchdowns in 2015 (six) as he did in his first four seasons prior."
My View: Free agent addition Jerraud Powers has been ruled out due to an ankle injury that has kept him from practicing. It makes Watkins more compelling because he can focus on the weaknesses of one corner and when Smith isn't on him, he'll draw a mismatch.
Although the safety combination of Lardarius Webb and Eric Weddle are a solid unit on paper, Jene Bramel's Reading the Defense says don't be surprised if Weddle spends a lot of time in the box. While I like Webb's range, Watkins and Taylor have the timing to make life miserable for the Ravens secondary—especially with Elvis Dumervill still on the mend and the Bills ground game drawing Weddle's attention.
Although our man Tremblay has Taylor 19th in his QB projections this week, both Bloom and Dodds have Taylor 10th and all three view Watkins as a top-10 receiver this week. I'd feel good about this combo and I'd also take a chance on Charles Clay, a player that the Bills staff spent much of the offseason showing Taylor how often he missed his wide open tight end.
4. start and/or Flex Those mid-round RBBC Question marks With a Clearer Week 1 role
Spencer Ware, Isaiah Crowell, Ameer Abdullah, Christine Michael, and T.J. Yeldon were all mid-round picks in fantasy drafts because none of them have a clearly defined role as a feature back. But as Sigmund Bloom notes this week in Sleepers, all five either have the matchup and/or teammates with injuries that should help them get the volume needed to produce.
My View: Ware is the industry no-brainer sleeper this week and it comes with the nagging thought that we'll all have egg on our faces when we overthink the fact that Andy Reid anointed Charcandrick West this week's starter. Crowell has played well all preseason and has earned a steady dose of Hue Jackson's confidence and support since spring and if Robert Griffin III III has any success this weekend, I believe Crowell will be the catalyst on the ground (see below). Abdullah wants to be the guy, Jim Caldwell doesn't think it's a good idea despite qualifying Abdullah has the ability to do it, and the second-year runner probably sees the Colts defense as a perfect opportunity to make Caldwell think twice (although it will take more than one good week to change a coach's mind).
With the availability of Yeldon and Michael's teammates up in the air for Week 1, both players have the versatility to accumulate fantasy points between the tackles and in the passing game. Yeldon might be even more match-up proof than Michael this week because he's a proven check-down option and if the Packers offense pummels the Jaguars defense, the second-year back could earn 5-7 receptions in this game.
5. Yes, Fuller; No, Pryor
Another prominent trend with Bloom's Sleepers feature this week is the injection of big-play shots at receiver: Kenny Britt, Will Fuller, and Terrelle Pryor.
"Pryor almost effortlessly blew past Desmond Trufant in the preseason to breeze into the end zone for a long score the week after getting free deep for a long reception in limited action," says Bloom. "Hue Jackson’s offense will surely include some deep shots to Pryor by design, and Robert Griffin III III throws one of the best deep balls in the league. The payoff could be huge."
He also notes Britt's 20 yards per catch average under Rams offensive coordinator Rob Boras and 10 PPR points in 3 games with Case Keenum as the starter last year. Considering that Chip Kelly hasn't shown any major changes with his offense that eventually faltered in Philadelphia and left the defense on the field to suffocate from overuse, Britt has desperation upside.
As long as Fuller's hamstring isn't a true concern Bloom sees Fuller's established rapport with Osweiler as a major positive against a Bears defense that won't have its top rusher Pernell McPhee and a "no-name Chicago secondary."
My View: My only point of contention is with Pryor this week. I love what we've seen with Pryor so far but the Eagles defense has the talent to pressure Robert Griffin III III and cast a cloud over those potential deep rainbows. If the Browns have any consistent success in the passing game, it will need Griffin to connect in the intermediate passing game in the middle of the field and I'm not confident that he has a receiver skilled enough to make these plays until Josh Gordon returns and Corey Coleman gains more experience.
If Pryor gets open up the sideline, it's either due to an early haymaker that catches the Eagles napping or the Browns generate some consistent yards from the screen game that then allows them to fake the short pass and find Pyror or Coleman deep.
