Photo: USA Today Sports

Before I present value probabilities for the Divisional round, let me make a general comment about the slate that permeates through all of the position discussions you'll read below: Because of (a) FantasyScore's pricing algorithm, and (b) the fact that the best players/defenses have advanced to the Round of 8, this week is severly lacking in good value opportunities. As you'll see, few options at each position have a probability exceeding 33 percent in cash games or 25 percent in tournaments (i.e., the threshold probabilities for 3x and 4x value, respectively). Most of the bad values are players with high projected point totals, while most of the good values are players with low projected point totals. At a certain point, value-seeking produces diminishing returns because a player scoring, say, 6 points hurts your chances of winning a cash game even if that may represent 3x value.

With that out of the way, let's get to it.

quarterbacks

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

According to math, Newton is the best value in both formats, but his actual probabilities (and his matchup) don't inspire confidence. As for the other quarterbacks, it's simply the case that high salaries make achieving value unlikely regardless of what you think about their matchups. For instance, Carson Palmer and Alex Smith are going against the worst two defenses of the week (per DVOA), but they need 27.6 points and 25.2 points to even achieve cash game value, respectively. In how many of Palmer's 16 games has he scored that many points? Four. In how many of 17 has Smith? Two. And in how many games have either quarterback scored what's required for tournament value this week? Zero.

running backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

If you've read or heard anything else DFS-related this week, you don't need me to tell you that David Johnson is a no-brainer, especially in cash games. Part of the reason he's a no-brainer has nothing to do with value: He's the only healthy, superstar running back playing this week; everyone else is either coming off an injury (Stewart and Lynch) or splits time as part of a committee (Steelers, Patriots, Broncos, Chiefs, and Packers backs). The other part is that Arizona's a favorite against the worst run defense remaining in the playoffs (per DVOA).

Among non-Johnsons, Ronnie Hillman is the next-best value, especially in tournaments. Again, the allocation of Denver running back touches is a crap shoot, but at least Hillman's price is right for such a gamble.

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

With Antonio Brown ruled out for Sunday's game, the Steelers' other receivers represent the best values among wide receivers with viable point projections. That said, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Bryant, Wheaton, and Heyward-Bey have two of the worst individual matchups of the week. And besides, whichever of Ben Roethlisberger with a bum right shoulder or Landry Jones throws the bulk of Pittsburgh's passes, more than usual are likely to be of the short variety, which thereby limits what their non-Brown trio can do from a fantasy scoring perspective.

Ignoring Steelers receivers, then, the best value among viable wide receivers is James Jones. Now that Davante Adams has been ruled out against the Cardinals, it's likely that Patrick Peterson will be shadowing Cobb (per PFF), which means that Jones will be running most of his routes against the lesser of Arizona's outside cornerbacks in a game that figures to see Green Bay in passing situations more often than usual. The combination of Adams' absence and the Cardinals' cornerback hierarchy also suggests that Abbrederis represents a high-value flier option in tournaments.

tight ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Further to what I just wrote about the probability of shorter throws by Pittsburgh's quarterback, Miller is the clear choice at value tight end. That's especially the case in tournaments, where his value probability exceeds the 25 percent threshold I mentioned earlier. Otherwise, with the relative dearth of good tight ends still around this late in the season, there's something to be said for going with either Gronkowski or Olsen in cash games. My preference is Olsen, primarily because Seattle's otherwise-stellar pass defense ranked 26th in efficiency against opposing tight ends (per DVOA).

defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Pittsburgh's M*A*S*H unit on offense makes it more likely that they'll try to adopt more of a running-and-defense game plan than they usually do. That's made especially likely given that they're facing the 2016 version of Peyton Manning. Like what has been the case this entire season, most every defense this week offers good cash game value, so this recommendation, as well as its contrarian-sounding rationale, is primarily in the context of tournaments.

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