Marvin Harrison Jr. and Brian Thomas Jr. Price Checks: The Fantasy Notebook
By Bob Harris - Exclusive to Footballguys
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Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Let's dive in . . .
The Quest
Last year's unexpected outcomes play a significant role in determining this year's draft prices. Analyzing these outcomes helps gauge their impact on player values for the upcoming season.
As we've done over the last three weeks, we'll examine one player who fell short of expectations in 2024 and another who exceeded them, assessing their potential values this year.
It's part of the offseason-long journey to gain an edge on your competition. The goal here is setting baselines to track as circumstances evolve, so let's keep that ball rolling with . . .
An undeniably talented but unproven rookie lands in an ideal situation, rises quickly in preseason rankings, but ultimately falls short of expectations in their first season.
In 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire's Average Draft Position (ADP) went as high as sixth overall. He finished the year as RB22.
In 2024, Cardinals rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. went into the season with a WR9 ADP, which made him the 15th pick overall.
The former Ohio State standout hauled in 62 passes for 885 yards and eight touchdowns. He finished the year as WR30 in PPR formats.
But that finish is misleading, inflated by a pair of outlier performances. Harrison finished as the WR1 overall with a 29-point effort in Week 2 and landed at WR5 in Week 5 when he delivered 23.1 fantasy points.
Including those two games, Harrison yielded fantasy-relevant weeks -- WR36 or better -- just eight times all season. His 11.7 points per game ranked 42nd overall . . .
The Murray Factor
Harrison's lofty draft status stemmed, at least in part, from his landing with Arizona in an offense run by Kyler Murray.
I get that.
Most of you know I try not to let less-than-ideal quarterback situations drive me off talented receiving assets. But that doesn't mean superior quarterback play isn't beneficial.
We saw glimpses of it with Harrison, who rebounded from a poor Week 1 showing to deliver his only WR1 finish of the season in Week 2.
In his debut, Harrison caught one pass for four yards in a loss to the Bills. Despite leading the Cardinals in routes run in Buffalo, the rookie had only three targets -- and one obvious drop.
As rough as his NFL debut was, Week 2 was equally, if not more, impressive.
In the first three-plus minutes of that Week 2 game against the Rams, Harrison exploded for touchdown catches of 23 and 60 yards.
Harrison became the first rookie with four or more catches and two or more touchdowns in a first quarter since -- incredibly -- his father, Marvin Harrison Sr., did it in 1996 with the Indianapolis Colts.
Harrison Jr. put up the resulting positional-high 29 fantasy points despite playing less than 70 percent of Arizona's offensive snaps. Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke noted at the time that Harrison only played four-of-16 snaps in the fourth quarter, as he left the game earlier than most starters.
Still, as Jahnke added, "There is no need to worry about that snap share in this game."
It made sense, especially if you believed Murray would continue to play at a level close to what he did against the Rams. Per the NFL, Murray became only the second player in league history to generate a perfect passer rating while throwing for 250 or more yards and rushing for 50 or more yards.
Murray was 17-of-21 for 266 yards and three touchdowns that day. He added 59 rushing yards on five attempts. The veteran quarterback is clearly a capable playmaker. Like he did in Week 2, Murray can fuel high-end production for his receiving assets.
But again . . .
CONTINUED...
