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🏆 This TE Could Break Fantasy in 2025
9 MONTHS AGO • 10 MIN READ

🏆 This TE Could Break Fantasy in 2025

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03/12/26

Howdy Reader,

Welcome in.

We’ve got the goods for you today. The kind of insight that keeps you ahead while everyone else is still hitting snooze on the offseason.

We’re taking a closer look at young star, Brock Bowers and if you think his story’s already been told, think again. He may just be getting started.

We’re also tracking Underdog ADP movement, spotlighting the risers, fallers, and hidden values that sharp drafters are already reacting to.

And as always, Bob Harris has your News and Notes. It's the pulse of everything happening right now in the fantasy world.

Let’s lock in and make today count.

J

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📊 POLL RESULTS: In our last issue of the Daily Update, we asked you Footballguys:

Which rookie RB takes control of his backfield first?

And the Footballguy says: I trust TreVeyon Henderson more than the Patriots do.

TODAY: Clayton Gray’s deep dive into how player values are shifting in high-stakes NFFC drafts reveals one clear trend — quarterbacks are climbing.

Among the biggest movers this week: Lamar Jackson surged 6 spots, Jayden Daniels climbed 4, and Bo Nix jumped 8. But which of these rising QBs most deserves the boost?

So today, we ask you Footballguys:

🗳️ POLL: Which rising QB most deserves their recent NFFC ADP surge?

When you vote in the Poll below, you'll see the current standings, and we'll post the final results in the next edition of the Daily Update.

1. HOU: Nick Chubb Signs One-Year Deal With Houston

Source: NFL Network – Ian Rapoport

RB Nick Chubb has now passed his physical and officially signed a one-year contract with the Houston Texans. The deal includes a $3 million base salary and incentives that could push the total value to $5 million.

Our view: As previously noted, Chubb will join a Texans backfield expected to lean on him for early-down work. He’s a strong what-the-heck flex if healthy.

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2. BAL: Isaiah Likely Surprising Rookie Safety

Source: BaltimoreRavens.com – Ryan Mink

Baltimore Ravens TE Isaiah Likely has been 'the toughest cover' at minicamp according to rookie safety Beau Brade. Likely made several contested catches and found holes in coverage during red zone drills.

Our view: Last season, the Ravens had two tight ends the defense had to account for. If this holds, Likely could be more than just Mark Andrews’ backup again.

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Brock Bowers: Ready for his Encore

By Ryan Weisse - Exclusive to Footballguys

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Ready for His Encore

Brock Bowers was one of last season's best values—falling in fantasy drafts due to concerns about the Raiders' offense, only to deliver top-tier production right out of the gate. Now? The secret's out. Bowers is being drafted as the overall TE1, often in the first or second round, and expectations are sky-high for an encore.

RELATED: See all of our 2025 Player Spotlights here.

While Travis Kelce has ruled the tight end landscape for most of the past decade, it's been five seasons since any tight end finished as the TE1 in back-to-back years. So the question becomes: can Bowers break that trend?

With a new quarterback and a fresh offensive scheme in Las Vegas, fantasy managers are betting big on him being the outlier. Let's dig into whether that wager is justified.

An Amazing Rookie Year

Before we look ahead, let's take a moment to appreciate the greatness of Bowers' rookie season. He led all tight ends with 153 targets and caught 73% of those passes. Bowers ended his rookie campaign with 112 receptions, 1,194 yards, and five touchdowns. It was the best statistical rookie season for a tight end in NFL history. His 112 receptions were also the third-most by any tight end in any season. In 2024, he beat the second-best tight end by 13 fantasy points and the tenth-best by nearly 100.

These results shouldn't be surprising from someone many regard as the best tight end in college football history. The term “generational” gets thrown around too often, but Bowers lived up to the moniker. Still, drafters were wary of the Las Vegas offense in general, and Bowers fell in 2024 fantasy drafts, often coming off the board as the 10th tight end or worse. It's safe to say the managers who took him were thrilled with the return on investment.

The Challenge of a Repeat

Bowers' average draft position reflects just how high expectations are heading into Year 2. After the rookie season he delivered, why should anyone be worried? For starters, that kind of season-to-season dominance just hasn't existed at the position recently. No tight end has repeated as fantasy's top scorer since Kelce did it five years ago. They usually don't fall far, but they fall.

While we could dissect the entire list, Sam LaPorta is the natural comparison. The parallels are striking, especially since both finished as the TE1 in their rookie seasons. LaPorta's first year wasn't as spectacular as Bowers', but it was impressive. Then, in Year 2, he took a step back.

Sam LaPorta Career Stats

In 2024, LaPorta regressed in every major statistical category and scored just 73% of his rookie-year fantasy points. That kind of drop would push Bowers outside the top 5 and leave fantasy managers disappointed at his current ADP.

However, it's also worth noting how differently the two tight ends produced in their rookie years. LaPorta's breakout leaned heavily on touchdowns—a notoriously unstable stat that tends to regress after a big year. Bowers, by contrast, thrived on volume. He was, and still is, the best receiver on his team. A new offense in 2025 could even help him improve on his modest five touchdowns, which means there may still be room to grow rather than regress.

A New Offense in Las Vegas

As we head into Bowers' second season, Las Vegas will feature a dramatically different offense. The team brought in Pete Carroll as head coach and tapped Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator. Kelly had been out of the NFL since 2016 but recently led Ohio State's 2024 National Championship team as OC.

CONTINUED...

Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide

The NFL Draft is in the books, and our Rookie Draft Guide is ready. Version 3.0 includes new team fits, depth chart projections, refined scouting intel, and — for the first time — the Post-Draft Bloom 100. It’s your complete blueprint for dominating dynasty rookie drafts.

You’re on the clock. Make the right call.

3. NE: Vrabel Likes Stefon Diggs' Energy At Minicamp

Source: ProFootballTalk – Myles Simmons

After receiver Stefon Diggs got himself into a bit of a rut during OTAs, new head coach Mike Vrabel said he likes Diggs’ energy and approach now that minicamp has begun. “He’s locked in,” Vrabel said.

Our view: As Profootballtalk.com suggests, that's about as close as you'll get to a Bill Belichick impersonation from Vrabel. We’re cautiously optimistic Diggs will stay bought in.

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4. BUF: Teammate Talks Up Elijah Moore

Source: Bills Digest – Alex Brasky

Buffalo Bills WR Elijah Moore is 'going to be special,' according to teammate Keon Coleman. Moore has impressed during OTAs and is expected to have a significant role in the offense after signing a one-year deal this offseason.

Our view: Moore, who signed a one-year deal with Buffalo, has impressed his teammates early. If he locks in a slot role, he could be a sneaky PPR value.

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5. ATL: Kirk Cousins Expected To Be At Minicamp On Tuesday

Source: The Athletic – Dianna Russini

Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins is expected to attend the team's mandatory minicamp this week, with his return scheduled for Tuesday. Cousins is still recovering from an Achilles tear but has progressed through rehab.

Our view: Cousins signed a four-year deal with Atlanta less than nine months removed from Achilles surgery. His availability for camp is a great sign for the Falcons’ new-look offense.

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6. PIT: Aaron Rodgers Wasn't Pittsburgh's First Choice At QB

Source: ProFootballTalk – Mike Florio

When it became obvious that a divorce was looming between the Jets and Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh emerged as a potential landing spot. However, the team reportedly first pursued Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins before eventually trading for Rodgers.

Our view: First, they targeted Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. Then they took a run at Kirk Cousins. Rodgers was third in line — but still ends up a Steeler. Fantasy chaos ensues.

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7. NE: Mike Vrabel Singing DeMario Douglas' Praises

Source: Patriots.com

New England Patriots WR DeMario Douglas has 'gotten better every day,' according to head coach Mike Vrabel. Douglas has seen time with the first‑team offense and appears to be one of the team’s top playmakers entering camp.

Our view: The Patriots drafted Douglas in the sixth round last year and he’s flashing growth in camp — might be the sneaky WR3/no‑respect deep play this fall.

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8. GB: Jaire Alexander Released

Source: NFL Network – Ian Rapoport

Green Bay Packers CB Jaire Alexander was released on Monday, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. The team will save nearly $16 million against the cap as a post‑June 1 designation.

Our view: Alexander was a stellar rookie and All‑Pro when healthy. But chronic injuries and contract inflexibility put the Packers in a corner. He’ll land somewhere — likely on a prove‑it deal.

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That’s it for today, Folks.

Thanks for hanging out with us. And for being part of the Footballguys crew. We love showing up in your inbox, helping you stay sharp (and maybe giving you something to talk about between NBA Finals games).

With Father’s Day around the corner, here’s to the dads, uncles, and commishes who made Sundays special. And taught us that yes, fantasy football does count as quality time.

We’ll see you tomorrow with the update.

Peace, Love and Fantasy Football,

J

Joe Bryant

Guide

Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey

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March 8th • Vol. 28, #7 • 🏆 The Free Agents Bob Harris Is Targeting Right Now
March 5th • Vol. 28, #6 • 🏆 Sigmund Bloom With The News You Need + 2026 Rookie Guide Update
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February 22nd • Vol. 28, #3 • 🏆 The Free-Agent QB We're Watching
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February 15th • Vol. 28, #1 • 🏆 A.J. Brown: "Change is not a bad thing"

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