It is hard to believe we are already in week thirteen. The fantasy playoff officially start next week for most of us but many find themselves in a must win situation this week just to get in. If you are in that situation and feel your team really does not have much of a shot even if you eek in, remember that six seeds have won the Super Bowl twice.
Arizona Cardinals
Patrick Peterson is among the league's best cover corners. Unfortunately that does not always show up in the box scores. This week however, I would suggest getting him into your lineup if possible. In three of the Eagles last four games, both opposing corners have totaled at least 5 solo tackles. Not to mention that Nick Foles is way overdue to throw an interception.
Largely due to the sheer volume of offensive plays they run, the Eagles are actually an above average matchup for nearly all positions. Peterson is the guy I wanted to point out because he is not necessarily an every week play for most owners, but Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington, Calais Campbell, Tyrann Mathieu and Yeremiah Bell are also solid starts this week.
Atlanta Falcons
With 5 tackles and 4 assists against the Saints last week, Paul Worrilow came back to earth a little. Do not let this put any doubt in your mind about starting him this week against Buffalo. The NFL landscape is always changing but one thing that remains constant is that the Bills are a quality matchup for linebackers. So far this season thirteen linebackers have hit double digits in fantasy points against Buffalo with a number of others falling just short. Both Worrilow and Sean Weatherspoon are likely to add to those totals.
If you are looking for a sneaky sleeper start at corner, consider Desmond Trufant against Buffalo. In the past three week we have seen William Gay go 9-2 with a pass defended, Brandon Flowers 6-0 with a pass defended and Dee Milliner 8-0 with a PD against the Bills.
Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers running game has improved over the past month or so but they still throw the ball a lot, and they still have trouble keeping Ben Roethlisberger upright. In the first meeting of these two teams (week seven) Terrell Suggs finished at 6-1-1 and Daryl Smith had a modest 4-5 with a forced fumble. I like both players to have a big game on Thanksgiving night.
Buffalo Bills
We need to think twice about starting any of our Buffalo defenders this week against the Falcons. Over their last seven games only four defenders have been able to muster more than 5 solo tackles against the Falcons. They are still doing a good job of protecting Matt Ryan so even the Buffalo pass rushers are unlikely to have a big game. It is tough to bench Kiko Alonso even with a poor matchup, but I would look for other options with everyone else.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are dealing with a litany of injuries this week. Thomas Davis suffered a compound dislocation of a finger in week twelve. The finger was put back in place and the wound stitched up so that he could continue in the game. The fact that he did not miss time in week twelve would suggest that he will be a go this week. Keep in mind however, that the adrenalin has worn off and the pain of such an injury is much worse in the days that follow. Keep a eye on the late week injury reports just in case.
Charles Johnson missed week twelve with a knee injury. He is expected to practice this week but is far from a lock to play against Tampa Bay. Even if he does go, Johnson is all but certain to be less than 100%. This is particularly painful for fantasy owners when we consider that the Buccaneers have allowed 9.5 sacks to defensive linemen over their past five games, including 2 to Johnson and 1 to Greg Hardy back in week eight. Hardy was also banged up in week twelve when he suffered a thumb injury. He too finished the game and later told reporters that he played over half of the game with his thumb "torn open". This would suggest that there was no structural damage so hopefully he will not be bothered by the injury this week.
One more injury that could be significant is the so called "lower body" (thought to be a leg) injury suffered by safety Michael Mitchell. After a hot start Mitchell has faded in recent weeks. To me the main significance of this injury is that if Mitchell sits, Quintin Mikell would regain an every down role. Over the past few weeks he has been splitting time with Robert Lester. This could be significant since the Bucs have been an above average matchup for safeties. Keep an eye on the practice reports and injury news late this week and act accordingly with all of these guys.
Chicago Bears
Sometime the best sign of what to expect in a late season divisional game is to look back at the numbers from a previous meeting. When the Vikings came to Chicago in week two, James Anderson and Lance Briggs each put up 8 solo tackles while the middle linebacker position (D.J. Williams) totaled 2. The names have changed since that time but the defensive scheme remains the same. Anderson is deserving of strong consideration this week with Jon Bostic being no more than a desperation start. The sleeper here is Khaseem Greene who has played fairly well in place of Briggs. Greene has been leaving the field on passing downs against most opponents. With the Vikings weak passing attack, Chicago could go with their base defense in a lot of third down situations.
Major Wright also had a big game in week two when he was 7-2 with a pass defended. The Bears struggles against the run and the ability of Adrian Peterson to get to the third level should mean a lot of opportunity for Wright again this week.
Cincinnati Bengals
First of all let me point out that the Bengals have a long history of stinking up the west coast with their play. If the trend continues the Cincinnati defense will be on the field a lot. Even if they play well, the Chargers have proven to be an excellent matchup for tackle producing defenders. That makes Vontaze Burfict a candidate for IDP of the week. What we do not know as of Wednesday, is is we can count on Vincent Rey in week thirteen. The Bengals were quiet during their bye week but it has been widely speculated that Rey Maualuga would be back on the field when they return. The outstanding play of Rey will make it easy for the team to hole Maualuga out another game if he is not 100%. A healthy Maualuga would also make a worthy play as a third linebacker. While it would be a shame for owners of either Maualuga or Rey to miss this matchup, unless the team give us some clarification, starting either of them would be a risky move.
Cleveland Browns
Tank Carder replaced Craig Roberts at inside linebacker in week twelve. Carder was off to a strong start with 4 tackles on 29 snaps before going down with a shoulder injury. Next up for the Brown at the position is Daruis Eubanks. The undersized rookie out of Georgia went 2-2 on 30 plays against the Steelers, giving us nothing to get excited about. A matchup with the Jaguars is just another reason to look elsewhere. I mention this only because some of our subscribers are in exceptionally deep leagues where just getting a player who will see the field could make a difference.
As the matchup goes, Jacksonville has been playing better football of late and the Browns seem to be heading in the opposite direction. At this point the two teams are a fairly even match up. That said, even with some good matchups D'Qwell Jackson has exceeded 4 solo tackles just once in his last 7 games. Start him if you must but only if you have no other quality options.
Dallas Cowboys
Owner Jerry Jones was blowing smoke this week about Sean Lee possibly returning to the lineup on Thursday. While that not realistic, Lee may well be back for the week fourteen contest. That may be a week too late for some of us, but those who are looking to the playoffs will want to check and see if he was cut after the injury.
For this week we can expect more of what the Cowboys showed in week twelve. That means Ernie Sims at middle linebacker with Bruce Carter on the weak side. Both players should be productive against a strong Raiders run game. What we have learned from this season however, is that Carter is not the player/fit we thought he would be in Monte Kiffin's scheme. So much for all the "next Derrick Brooks" hype from the preseason.
The good news for Dallas is that they should have DeMarcus Ware and J.J. Wilcox back in action on Thursday. That will be a big plus for the defense as a unit but may not mean much for fantasy owners. Wilcox was nothing special before his injury and the Raiders have allowed just 2 sacks with Matt McGloin under center for the past two weeks.
Denver Broncos
With production from interior linemen being so hard to come by, the injury to Kevin Vickerson is worth talking about. Not so much for the fact that he is out, but for the opportunity his injury will provide for rookie first round pick Sylvester Williams. Williams was one of the top tackle prospects in this year's draft. He is an athletic big man with the potential to get after the passer as well as the ability to hold up at the point of attack. It is hard to say if Williams will be able to make the most of the opportunity, but anytime a player with his potential finally gets a shot, it is worth giving it some attention.
Detroit Lions
As of Wednesday afternoon it seems unlikely that corner Chris Houston will be able to go for the Lions. That makes rookie Darius Slay the projected starter. Slay struggled with his earlier opportunities and would almost certainly be a target for the Packers passing game. Without Aaron Rodgers it is hard to say if Green Bay will be able to take advantage of the rookie, but Matt Flynn's performance last week lends reason for optimism.
When these two teams met in week five, both Stephen Tulloch (7-4) and DeAndre Levy (11-3) put up strong numbers. The Green Bay offense stepped up in the second half of last week's game and at least looked like themselves for the first time since Rodgers went down. That bodes well for the prospect of a repeat performance by the Lions linebacker duo.
After the comments coming from the Packers offensive line this week about how dirty the Lions defensive linemen are and how they are coached to be nothing but "dirt bags", it is safe to say that Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley will be fired up on Thursday. Statistically the Packers have been an average matchup for interior linemen but the extra motivation could be a factor. I would be starting those guys in tackle required leagues if it were me.
Green Bay Packers
Brad Jones put up big numbers for a second straight game in week twelve but it might be wise to consider sitting him this week. Jones saw action on only 54 of 79 defensive snaps against Minnesota and continued to sit out most of the passing down sub packages. Against the Lions three receiver based offense, Green Bay will likely be using the nickel as their base defense on Thursday. That could spell limited opportunity for Jones. In the first meeting Jones owners were saved by a sack as he finished at 3-0-1. On the other side of that coin, A.J. Hawk was 7-2 in that game and remains the Packers lone three down inside backer.
Indianapolis Colts
I sometimes wonder if NFL coaches read my column then make decisions just to make me look bad. Last week I talked about how Pat Angerer had settled into an every down role in four consecutive games, was looking like the centerpiece of the team's defense and was performing like their best inside backer. All true at that point. In week twelve however, Angerer was back in a time share with Kelvin Sheppard. Angerer played 36 of 77 snaps and finished at 4-1 while Sheppard saw action on 31 plays and finished at 2-3. I have not yet had an opportunity to watch the replay of the game to see if it would shed any light on the situation. There has been no report of an injury and the game book shows that it was not a case of one guy simply replacing the other at a given point. The whole situation leaves me scratching my head but the bottom line is simple, unless there is some new development that comes to light, keep Angerer on your bench this week.
Kansas City Chiefs
There is not much that needs to be said about the injuries to Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Hali says he will play this week while Houston is likely to miss some time. Even when healthy both were non-factors two weeks ago against Denver. The only real point of interest this week is to watch Hali and see how he look so we can factor that into our lineup decisions for week fourteen.
As is usually the case when I decide to give up on a player, Eric Berry posted what was by far his best numbers of the season in week twelve. He managed a solid 6-1 in the first meeting with Denver. Based on his two game mini streak of quality numbers and a strong matchup, Berry is worthy of strong starting consideration this week.
Miami Dolphins
Owners in tackle required leagues will want to take a long look at Randy Starks and Jared Odrick this week. The Jets have faced only four opponents that run a 4-3 base defense this year. In those games they have allowed 7 sacks to interior linemen.
Minnesota Vikings
Erin Henderson missed week twelve for "personal reasons". There was nothing more reported about the situation until Wednesday when we learned that he had been arrested for a DUI on November 19th. Audie Cole got the start in week twelve. His 11-2-1 performance made it really easy for the coaching staff to take a "hard line" approach to the arrest. Henderson may be active in week thirteen but is not expected to start. Reading between the lines here I am going to speculate that this may have as much to do with the organization wanting to get another look at Cole as it does them trying to make an example of Henderson. Henderson is basically a place holder for the Vikings anyway. He ended up with the starting job simply because the team had more pressing needs at other positions and because their effort to upgrade with Desmond Bishop did not work out.
As a seventh round pick in 2012 Cole was a developmental prospect. He caught my eye that preseason when he seemed to be everywhere, and has been on my radar ever since. Cole is not the most graceful of players to watch. He seems a little stiff and jerky but the guy always manages to be around the play. He was a three down middle backer against the Packers and it looks as if he will get a chance against the Bears to show that his play was more than a fluke. Clearly nothing is certain here. what I can tell you is that I am grabbing this guy everywhere I can get him in both redraft and dynasty leagues. He is certainly worth getting onto your roster just in case.
Owners looking to improve their roster for a playoff run may want to pick up safety Harrison Smith. Reports have him close to making his return from the toe injury and he could be available as early as week fourteen. If Harrison gets back in the lineup we will no longer have to guess which Minnesota safety to start.
New Orleans Saints
For the first time in several weeks the Saints had all three of their safeties back in week twelve. As a result the defensive scheme went back to looking much like it did early in the season when Rob Ryan used all three guys at the same time often. Kenny Vaccaro and Roman Harper each saw significant time near the line of scrimmage while Malcolm Jenkins handled more of a traditional free safety role. Harper was on the sideline for a handful of plays, finishing with a mark of 3-6. Not really bad numbers when you consider how poor a matchup the Falcons have been. Vaccaro ended up at 4-5 with a pass defended. I like the chances that both will be productive this week against the Seahawks.
With all the safeties back in action inside linebacker David Hawthorne saw a reduced workload. He was on the field for 41 of 68 defensive snaps against Atlanta. Ryan likes to use Harper and/or Vaccaro at that inside linebacker position in a lot of situations. This is a trend that is going to continue. Hawthorne had a nice run for a few weeks but the time has come to move on.
Oakland Raiders
Miles Burris was activated and cleared to return last week. He has been practicing and could be available against Dallas on Thursday. With both Kevin Burnett (quad) and Sio Moore (shoulder) being limited and questionable this week, Burris has a shot at getting on the field. He is a good player that likely figures into the Raiders long term plan. There is no reason to go get him just yet but we certainly want to keep an eye on him when/if he gets a shot. Dynasty owners in particular should take a look and keep in mind that Burnett is working on a one year deal.
Philadelphia Eagles
Good news for Mychal Kendricks owners this week. He was able to get back on the practice field as a full participant and is in line to play against Arizona. The Cardinals are an average matchup for linebackers but even so both Kendricks and DeMeco Ryans should make solid third starters with some upside in this game.
Looking for a sleeper start at corner? Check out Rashad Carmichael. The 2011 4th round pick of the Texans has quietly slipped past Brandon Boykin into the Eagles starting lineup. In the past two weeks he has totaled 9 solo tackles and a pair of passes defended. Arizona has been a well above average matchup for corners in general. It is a safe bet that their game plan has Carson Palmer looking to take advantage of the youngster making his third NFL start.
Pittsburgh Steelers
This is yet another rematch between divisional rivals. A look back at the first matchup between the Steelers and Ravens tells us that Lawrence Timmons needs to be in our lineups this week. In the first meeting of these teams he was a whopping 12-5.
Seattle Seahawks
Brandon Browner is injured and suspended for a full year pending his appeal, and his replacement Walter Thurmond is getting a four game vacation without pay complements of the commissioners office. That leaves Seattle really thin at the position heading into this week's matchup with the Saints multiple receiver offense. 2011 sixth round pick Byron Maxwell and 2012 sixth round selection Jeremy Lane will be moving up the depth chart. Neither player has any starting experience at the NFL level. Maxwell was the nickel corner last week and is the most likely candidate to start opposite Richard Sherman. He could be a sneaky good start this week.
St. Louis Rams
T.J. McDonald returned to his starting role at strong safety in week twelve. He managed a solid 5-1 in his return and has a quality matchup this week with San Francisco. The problem is, he missed practice Wednesday with a shin injury. If he is able to go, McDonald should be a quality DB3 for us this week.
Tennessee Titans
It was expected that Moise Foukou would get back on the field in some capacity in week twelve. It was not anticipated that he would start or especially that Colin McCarthy would not see the field at all. Fokou was his normal average self posting 4 solo stops against the Raiders and looking very ordinary in the process. This coaching decision ranks right up there with the biggest head scratchers of the season, but there is no reason at this point to expect anything different in week twelve. Dynasty owners can shelve McCarthy for now. Redraft owners may as well look for help elsewhere.
Washington Redskins
After well over a decade of outstanding fantasy production, London Fletcher is clearly in decline. He has been inconsistent at best, reaching double digit fantasy points in just about half of this year's games. Fletcher may not be the player he once was, but it is hard to overlook this week's matchup. Over the past five games, three linebackers have reached double digits in solo tackles while five others have put up at least 6. There has been no better matchup for linebackers over that span. Fletcher has enough left in the tank to take advantage of this matchup.
That is going to do it for the fantasy regular season. Hopefully everyone will survive and be back with us next week. Either way, keep in mind that it is never too late to start working on next year's team. Check back in week seventeen when the column will be dedicted to future prospects. In the meantime, Just Win Baby!
