
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
Seattle | Miami | -10.5 | 44 | 27.25 | ++ | +++ | +++ |
Indianapolis | Detroit | -3.5 | 51 | 27.25 | ++ | ++ | |
Arizona | New England | -6 | 47.5 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
Pittsburgh | Washington | -3.5 | 50 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
Green Bay | Jacksonville | -5 | 48 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
New Orleans | Oakland | -1.5 | 51 | 26.25 | + | + | |
Kansas City | San Diego | -7 | 44.5 | 25.75 | + | ++ | ++ |
Atlanta | Tampa Bay | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | + | + | |
Oakland | New Orleans | 1.5 | 51 | 24.75 | + | + | |
Houston | Chicago | -5.5 | 43.5 | 24.5 | + | ++ | + |
Baltimore | Buffalo | -3.5 | 44.5 | 24 | |||
Detroit | Indianapolis | 3.5 | 51 | 23.75 | |||
Washington | Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 50 | 23.25 | |||
Dallas | NY Giants | -1 | 45.5 | 23.25 | |||
Los Angeles | San Francisco | -3 | 43.5 | 23.25 | |||
Carolina | Denver | -3.5 | 41.5 | 22.5 | + | ||
Philadelphia | Cleveland | -4 | 41 | 22.5 | ++ | ||
NY Giants | Dallas | 1 | 45.5 | 22.25 | |||
Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | |||
Cincinnati | NY Jets | -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | + | ||
Minnesota | Tennessee | -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | + | ||
Jacksonville | Green Bay | 5 | 48 | 21.5 | |||
New England | Arizona | 6 | 47.5 | 20.75 | + | ||
Buffalo | Baltimore | 3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 | |||
San Francisco | Los Angeles | 3 | 43.5 | 20.25 | |||
NY Jets | Cincinnati | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | |||
Tennessee | Minnesota | 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | |||
Chicago | Houston | 5.5 | 43.5 | 19 | + | ||
Denver | Carolina | 3.5 | 41.5 | 19 | |||
San Diego | Kansas City | 7 | 44.5 | 18.75 | + | ||
Cleveland | Philadelphia | 4 | 41 | 18.5 | |||
Miami | Seattle | 10.5 | 44 | 16.75 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: Christine Michael/Thomas Rawls (Seahawks)
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Seattle
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Andrew Luck (Colts), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Frank Gore (Colts), David Johnson (Cardinals), DeAngelo Williams (Steelers), Eddie Lacy (Packers), Spencer Ware (Chiefs), Lamar Miller (Texans)
- Receivers: Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Tyler Lockett (Seahawks), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief/Phillip Dorsett (Colts), Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd (Cardinals), Antonio Brown/Markus Wheaton/Eli Rogers (Steelers), Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Jared Cook (Packers)
- Defense: Kansas City, Philadelphia
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Derek Carr (Raiders), Brock Osweiler (Texans), Jimmy Garappolo (Patriots), Jay Cutler (Bears), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram (Saints), Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Latavius Murray (Raiders)
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Michael Thomas/Coby Fleener (Saints), Jeremy Maclin/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu (Falcons), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Clive Walford (Raiders), DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller (Texans), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski/Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Alshon Jeffery/Kevin White/Zach Miller (Bears), Keenan Allen/Travis Benjamin/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Jarvis Landry/Kenny Stills/Jordan Cameron (Dolphins)
- Defense: Houston, Carolina, Cincinnati, Minnesota