Christmas Day football brings the same joy, chaos, and opportunity that Thanksgiving does, and if this introduction feels familiar, that is intentional. The lessons from the Thanksgiving three-game slate still apply here almost word for word. This article will cover both Showdown and Classic DFS formats, because holiday slates demand a broader and more flexible approach to roster construction. Whether you are building single game lineups, multi game rosters, or both, the goal is the same: understand how this slate behaves and where the field is most likely to get it wrong.
With only three games on the board, this is one of the most unique DFS environments of the season. Ownership condenses aggressively, duplication risk rises, and edges come less from identifying the best plays and more from identifying fragile assumptions. The purpose of this guide is to help you navigate both formats with that lens, so you can enjoy the games while still putting yourself in position to compete at the top of tournaments.
Short-Slate Game Strategy
Three-game slates play by their own rules. DFS tournaments become less about raw projections and more about leverage, as multiple players can push toward 40 to 50 percent ownership. At that level, chalk becomes fragile. Fading even one or two of those pieces can meaningfully separate your lineup, even if your alternatives are not particularly low rostered.
These slates also reward embracing outcomes that feel uncomfortable. Winning lineups often capitalize on games not unfolding cleanly. Blowouts, stalled offenses, and unexpected comeback scripts concentrate usage in ways projections struggle to capture. When teams trail, volume often narrows, and on slates this small, concentrated volume consistently beats efficiency.
That is why building around game scripts instead of isolated player takes is critical. Ask how a game could break differently than expected and who benefits if it does. Losing teams can still produce tournament winning performances, and the field tends to underestimate how often bad real life outcomes still generate usable fantasy value.
This is also one of the few DFS environments where anti correlation can be viable. Pairing a quarterback with the opposing defense is rarely optimal on large slates, but on a three-game slate, one defensive touchdown can swing an entire tournament. Uncomfortable builds win here. Quarterbacks against opposing defenses, heavy stacks from teams projected to lose, and leverage plays that benefit directly from chalk failing all deserve consideration.
You do not need to be contrarian everywhere. You just need to be intentional, willing to tell a story the field is not telling, and comfortable leaning into outcomes others would rather avoid.
Early Game: Dallas @ Washington
Injury Considerations: Dallas enters Christmas with notable injuries on both sides of the ball, though none materially alter the DFS landscape. Left tackle Tyler Guyton was placed on injured reserve Wednesday and will miss his fourth straight game, while linebacker DeMarvion Overshown was unable to clear concussion protocol in time for Thursday. Both absences are worth noting, but neither meaningfully shifts how this game should be approached for fantasy purposes.
One additional situation to monitor is Ryan Flournoy, who has delivered several solid fantasy lines in recent weeks and is listed as a game time decision after suffering an injury against the Chargers last Sunday. If Flournoy is unable to go, KaVontae Turpin and Jonathan Mingo should see increased playing time.
Washington’s injury situation is more impactful. The Commanders will be without tackle Laremy Tunsil due to an oblique injury, but the headline absence is Marcus Mariota, who will miss the game with hand and quadriceps injuries. Josh Johnson is expected to start at quarterback against the league’s most quarterback-friendly defense. On the defensive side, linebacker Nick Bellore remains in concussion protocol and will also miss the game.
Gamescript & Analysis:
These teams met back in mid-October, when Dallas took full advantage of an injury-riddled Washington roster. The Commanders were without Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Noah Brown, their top three receivers at the time, and Jayden Daniels was forced out early in the second half with a hamstring injury. Even with those limitations, Washington still managed to score three touchdowns against Dallas’ struggling defense. The problem was that Dallas doubled them up, cruising to a 44–22 win.
For classic DFS contests that span all three games, this is the most attractive matchup on the slate. Dallas’ combination of a potent offense and a porous defense has consistently produced fantasy-friendly environments for both sides, and oddsmakers agree. The game carries a 50.5-point total, easily the highest on the Christmas Day slate.
Josh Johnson is far from an inspiring quarterback option and has a well-established history of turnovers, throwing 13 touchdowns against 17 interceptions over his career. Still, his $4.4K salary keeps him in play on a slate with only six quarterbacks available, several of whom are equally unappealing. With both teams playing for little more than pride, I expect a high-scoring, back-and-forth contest in which Dallas ultimately prevails, but not by a wide margin. Prediction: Dallas 31, Washington 28
GPP Plays: While he is not cheap, Dak Prescott is the highest floor and upside quarterback on the Christmas Day slate. His arsenal of weapons, including CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson, are all firmly in play for DFS contests. Lamb is my preferred option after being held scoreless throughout December, and he is a strong bet to bounce back and find the endzone on Christmas. Many will stack Prescott with both Lamb and Pickens, but the sharper move may be to separate those two given their combined popularity. A sneaky construction is Lamb with KaVontae Turpin or Jonathan Mingo, hoping the cheaper piece finds paydirt at low roster rates, especially if Ryan Flournoy is inactive. We would also be remiss not to discuss attacking the Commanders run defense, which remains the league’s friendliest. Javonte Williams is fairly priced at $6.3K, but I am not excited about his prospects with Dallas recently giving Malik Davis additional work out of the backfield.
As for Washington, you can make an argument for almost every player on offense given their generally low salaries and Dallas’ defensive ineptitude. Both Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jacory Croskey-Merritt are priced reasonably, and I prefer Rodriguez because he should see more carries and has scored in five of his last eight games. The passing game is arguably more attractive, as both Deebo Samuel Sr. and Terry McLaurin create matchup problems for Dallas’ secondary. Josh Johnson’s ability to find them in space is the wildcard, but any exposure here is driven more by the strength of Washington’s receivers than confidence in Johnson. I like both in double stacks, but if choosing only one, I lean toward Deebo because he has big play ability without needing to get behind a defense the way McLaurin often does. At tight end, John Bates and Ben Sinnott are splitting looks now that Zach Ertz is on injured reserve, and both are thin plays with capped ceilings.
Showdown Captain Picks: For the Captain slot, my top options are Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Deebo Samuel Sr., with the latter offering some salary relief for the remainder of your Showdown lineups. Prescott stands out as the premium option and sits in a tier of his own if the opportunity cost is not prohibitive.
Kickers and Defense: The Washington defense is an easy fade across the entire slate. There is no reasonable explanation for how or why they would outperform the other defensive options available. Dallas’ defense is not much more appealing, having posted a combined minus one fantasy points over the past three weeks, which hardly inspires confidence. That said, if salary relief is needed relative to the Broncos or Lions, I can stomach rostering Dallas at low ownership and hoping for a Josh Johnson mistake that turns into a defensive score.
At kicker, this matchup features Brandon Aubrey and Jake Moody. Aubrey is the league’s best real life and fantasy kicker and deserves consideration every week due to his range beyond 50 yards. Prior to last week, he posted three consecutive double digit fantasy performances and brings similar upside every week. Moody, on the other hand, faces several headwinds, including a likely negative game script and the fact that he has not converted a 50 yard attempt all season. That combination makes him an easy pass for Thursday.
