Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Updated Saturday 12/30 @ 6 PM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | NY Jets | -15 | 43 | 29 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay | -6 | 49 | 27.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Minnesota | Chicago | -12 | 38 | 25 | ++ | + | +++ |
| Detroit | Green Bay | -7 | 43 | 25 | + | + | + |
| Baltimore | Cincinnati | -9.5 | 40 | 24.75 | ++ | + | ++ |
| LA Chargers | Oakland | -7 | 42 | 24.5 | ++ | + | + |
| Atlanta | Carolina | -3.5 | 45 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | -4 | 43.5 | 23.75 | |||
| Seattle | Arizona | -9 | 38 | 23.5 | ++ | ||
| Indianapolis | Houston | -5.5 | 41 | 23.25 | + | ||
| Buffalo | Miami | -2.5 | 42.5 | 22.5 | |||
| Tennessee | Jacksonville | -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | |||
| Washington | NY Giants | -3.5 | 39.5 | 21.5 | + | ||
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 6 | 49 | 21.5 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | -6 | 36.5 | 21.25 | ++ | ||
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 39 | 21.25 | + | ||
| Denver | Kansas City | -4 | 38 | 21 | + | ||
| Carolina | Atlanta | 3.5 | 45 | 20.75 | |||
| Miami | Buffalo | 2.5 | 42.5 | 20 | |||
| LA Rams | San Francisco | 4 | 43.5 | 19.75 | |||
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | |||
| Green Bay | Detroit | 7 | 43 | 18 | |||
| NY Giants | Washington | 3.5 | 39.5 | 18 | |||
| Philadelphia | Dallas | 3.5 | 39 | 17.75 | |||
| Houston | Indianapolis | 5.5 | 41 | 17.75 | |||
| Oakland | LA Chargers | 7 | 42 | 17.5 | |||
| Kansas City | Denver | 4 | 38 | 17 | |||
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | 9.5 | 40 | 15.25 | |||
| Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 6 | 36.5 | 15.25 | |||
| Arizona | Seattle | 9 | 38 | 14.5 | |||
| NY Jets | New England | 15 | 43 | 14 | |||
| Chicago | Minnesota | 12 | 38 | 13 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Dion Lewis/Mike Gillislee (Patriots),
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Steelers, Vikings
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Latavius Murray/Jerick McKinnon (Vikings), Alex Collins (Ravens), Melvin Gordon/Branden Oliver (Chargers)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Josh Hill (Saints)
- Defense: Seahawks, Steelers, Ravens
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Case Keenum (Vikings), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Ameer Abdullah/Theo Riddick (Lions), Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons)
- Receivers: Stefon Diggs/Adam Thielen/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Marvin Jones/Golden Tate/Eric Ebron (Lions), Mike Wallace/Breshad Perriman/Ben Watson (Ravens), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons)
- Defense: Broncos, Chargers, Colts, Cowboys, Redskins, Lions