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In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces is offering a $25,000 guaranteed tournament at the $27.50 price point with maximum entrants of 1,010. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $55 price point with a maximum of 200 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $2,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
Once again Roethlisberger and Brown lead the way in our top stacks of the week. The Steelers are projected to score the most points this week with a projected total of 28.5 points. Ben Roethlisberger has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL, as he has thrown for 350+ yards in four of his last five games while also having 3+ touchdown passes in each of these games. Over the last six games, Antonio Brown has had 10+ targets in each of those games including a 23 target game against Oakland. This Ravens team is statistically better than what they truly are as they often get down early in the game and teams just run the ball against them. Pittsburgh is a team that does not stop scoring and their defense is not good enough to completely shut down the Ravens offense so the Steelers have plenty of upside this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Blake Bortles ($6,450) and WR Allen Robinson ($5,250)
It seems as if Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson continue to be underrated and underpriced week in and week out. This week they are in the highest total game of the week at 51.5, and facing a Saints defense who has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL. This is an ideal situation for Robinson and Bortles to easily pay off their underpriced salaries. What is great about Bortles, is that he can beat you through the air and on the ground as he is averaging 22 yards per game rushing this season and has scored a rushing touchdown in each of his last two games.
Allen Robinson has struggled a little bit over the past two weeks, but this was largely due to the matchups being poor as he faced Vonta Davis two weeks ago, and an Atlanta Falcons defense that has done a great job shutting down top wide receivers. His targets should increase this week, and he should get back to the production that we have become accustomed to this season.
If the Green Bay Packers have struggled with one position this year, it is stopping big physical wide receivers, which bodes well for the 6’2’’ 220 pound Michael Floyd this week. Over the last three weeks, Floyd has seen 29 targets and has gone over 100 yards in two of these games. This is the second highest total on the slate, and should turn into a shootout type game where both offenses are putting up big passing numbers. With how cheap Floyd is, he still seems to be under-owned for GPP’s due to Fitzgerald and John Brown’s production this season.
HIGH RISK STACK
Russell Wilson has played at a completely different level over the past few weeks. This week Doug Baldwin is dealing with a hamstring injury which even if he plays should open up even more opportunities for Tyler Lockett this week. Over the last three games, the rookie is benefitting from Wilson’s improvement in play as he has seen seven targets in each of those three games having scored three touchdowns in each of those games. Doug Baldwin’s price is a little bit too high for us to recommend this week, but Lockett provides a nice value and should be under-owned compared to Baldwin this week.
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 15.
Quarterback – Cam Newton Carolina Panthers ($7,250)
It is hard to ever recommend fading Cam Newton, but if there was ever a week to do it this would be the week. The Panthers are facing a Falcons team on the road and are 7 point favorites and might start thinking about resting players if they get up big. With Cam Newton getting banged up last week he is unlikely to run as much as he has in the past, and with a few great options this week at quarterback there are too many other factors that limit Newton’s upside which is why we recommend going in a different direction.
Running Back – Lamar Miller Miami Dolphins ($4,900)
Lamar Miller’s ownership percentage continues to be high week in and week out as people are still hoping that he is going to get back to the upside that he had when Dan Campbell first took over as head coach. However, over the last five games he has been extremely inconsistent and is not getting enough volume even in great matchups to warrant owning as his carries have been 7, 5, 20, 12, 9. He is dealing with both a quad and an ankle injury which is limiting his upside. The matchup is a great one as he is facing a Colts team that has allowed 124 yards per game rushing, but this is the third straight week where Miller is facing a bottom 10 rush defense. He has only gone over 50 yards twice in his last eight games, and there are better running back plays at a similar price.
Wide Receiver – Martavis Bryant Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,900)
Martavis Bryant is going to be the highest owned player on this slate as his price is too low compared to the production and upside that he possesses. As a cash game play at $4,900 he is a terrific play, but in the GPP when his ownership is going to be as high as it is, he still does have the boom/bust potential and is reliant upon big plays. People often try to be contrarian by going with the under-owned player, but you can also be contrarian by fading one of the highest owned players on the slate and if that player has a poor game you immediately get a significant edge over a large portion of the field.
Baltimore’s defense has improved recently against the pass, and most of this is due to their offense being so bad that teams no longer feel like they have to throw at the same volume as they did early in the season. They are now 15th in the NFL allowing only 242 yards per game against the pass.
Tight End – Delanie Walker Tennessee Titans ($4,900)
The Mariota to Walker connection has been one of the best connections on the season, and has been great for daily fantasy on a weekly basis. With Zach Mettenberger, it is a completely different scenario for Walker. In the three games Mettenberger has played, Walker has not topped 64 yards and only had five total targets last week against the Patriots. Thankfully he was able to turn those five targets into two receptions for two touchdowns, but we do not expect that he will have a 100% touchdown to reception ratio again this week. The Texans have been great this year against tight ends as they’re only allowing 6.2 points per game to opposing tight ends which is 11th best in the NFL. With other options such as Greg Olsen, Gary Barnidge, and even Zack Miller there are better options this week.
Defense and Special Teams – Every team except for the Seahawks or the Chiefs
For the third week in a row, we are recommending the Seahawks or the Chiefs, as they continue to have an easy schedule. This week the Seahawks get the St. Louis Rams who have really struggled against teams that have been able to shut down the run. The Rams are only projected to score 13 points in this game which is the lowest total of the day. The one thing the Seahawks have not done well this year is turn the ball over as they have only forced 19 turnovers which is 18th in the league. The Chiefs are projected to allow more points to the Browns as the Browns total is at 16, but the Chiefs are 4th in the NFL with forcing 27 turnovers on the season.
Defense and Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks ($3,300)
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,150)
Detroit Lions ($2,850)
LOW OWNERSHIP/CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Defense and Special Team
Tennessee Titans ($2,500)
Miami Dolphins ($2,600)
Carolina Panthers ($3,100)