Alvin Kamara Is More Than the Best of the Rest - Footballguys

5 Reasons Why Alvin Kamara Isn’t just a Consolation Prize

Conventional wisdom has Alvin Kamara as the “best of the rest” among fantasy commodities. Some combination of Todd Gurley, David Johnson, LeVeon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott are perceived as the must-haves, and Kamara is viewed as the next best thing. While those other backs warrant consideration ahead of Kamara, it would be wrong to think the talented second-year tailback doesn’t belong in the same tier.

• Kamara is a focal point of a top-five offense
• No team relied on its running backs more than New Orleans last season
• Mark Ingram is suspended for four games and in the final year of his contract
• Dual-purpose running backs like Kamara tend to maintain their value better than traditional workhorse types
• Kamara performed at an elite level, as both a runner and receiver – his skill set does not suggest last year’s breakout was a fluke

Unexpected Breakout

We look back on last year’s rookie class with awe, but Kamara’s performance was the most surprising of the bunch. Fantasy owners discounted Kamara in drafts. It’s no surprise Mark Ingram was more of a priority, he was the incumbent and finished as a top-10 fantasy back in 2016. But did you remember Kamara wasn’t even the second Saints running back off the board, on average? That honor went to Adrian Peterson. Kamara was nearly an afterthought in drafts:

• 3rd Saints running back drafted
• 59th overall running back drafted
• 10th rookie running back drafted

Fantasy owners know it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. Kamara may have been a deep sleeper in August drafts, but he was an elite, every-week fantasy starter for most of the season.

• 120 carries
• 728 yards rushing
• 6.1 yards per rush
• 8 rushing touchdowns
• 81 receptions
• 826 yards receiving
• 10.2 yards per reception
• 5 receiving touchdowns
• RB4 in standard scoring
• RB3 in points-per-reception (PPR) scoring

A Re-Commitment to the Run(ning Backs)

The Sean Payton era has been synonymous with prolific passing, in no small part because of Drew Brees. Brees has led the NFL in passing yards seven times in 12 seasons with New Orleans and has averaged 624 passing attempts. However, the Saints had not won a single playoff game since their Super Bowl championship in 2009. It was time for a change. Just when the league thought they had Payton’s offense figured out, he flipped the script and re-discovered the value of a powerhouse running game.

Run/Pass Ratio during Sean Payton's Tenure (2007-2017)

In most seasons, Payton’s Saints have thrown the ball more than 60% of the time. Last year was far more balanced, with the team running the ball nearly 46% of team snaps. It’s no coincidence the only other time New Orleans ran the ball this much was their Super Bowl year. Rather than view last season as an outlier, view it as a veteran coach finally going back to what made him successful in the first place.

Looking deeper into last year’s transformation, it wasn’t just the running game that found new importance; it was the running backs themselves. The running backs accounted for a larger part of both the rushing and passing game than ever before.

% of Team Totals for Saints Running Backs (2007-2017)

The Saints running backs accounted for 64.9% of team touches, 51.0% of total yards, 58.7% of touchdowns, and 48.5% of fantasy points scored. The combination of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara were the new stars of the show.

Kamara was more reliant on touchdowns than the average running back, but not alarmingly so. In standard leagues, touchdowns accounted for 33.4% of his points (vs. 27.0%, on average) and in PPR leagues touchdowns amounted to 24.7% of his total (vs. 21.3%, on average). You’ll note there’s a correlation between touchdown reliance, and playing in a top offense. Unless you think the Saints are going to fall out of the league’s upper echelon, there’s no reason to fear Kamara (or Ingram’s) touchdown totals overinflated their 2018 prospects.

Beyond Compare – Literally

Fantasy owners love to use historical comparables to help shape the narrative, but Kamara’s rookie season is (almost) without compare. Over the last 20 years, only 15 rookie running backs gained 1,500 yards from scrimmage – Kamara included.

Rookies with at least 1,500 yards from scrimmage (1998-2017)

A look at the other players on this list should instill confidence in Kamara's outlook. Most of these running backs were dominant fantasy players for many years; it's rarified company. On the other hand, is this the best comparable group for the Saints dynamo? Every other running back on this list ran for at least 1,200 yards while Kamara ran for just 728 yards. For reference, the running backs on this list suffered a 15% decline in their fantasy points per game the following seasons, but the variance was wide. LaDainian Tomlinson's fantasy production increased nearly 40% in his second season, whereas Mike Anderson's per-game value fell 67%.

Is there a better comp group? Let's instead look at rookie running backs with at least 500 rushing and 500 receiving yards; it's a short list.

Rookie Running Backs with 500+ Rushing and 500+ Receiving Yards (1998-2017)

Observations:

• Edgerrin James is an all-time great, but as we've already discussed, he ran for 1,553 yards and had 3x the rushing attempts as Kamara -- he doesn't seem to be a realistic comparison.
• Reggie Bush's rookie season is most comparable to Kamara's, but he wasn't as explosive. He averaged 3.7 yards per rush while Kamara averaged 6.1 yards. Bush averaged 8.4 yards per catch while Kamara averaged more than 10 yards per reception.
• Giovani Bernard, like Bush, had a similar workload to Kamara but wasn't as productive on a per carry, per catch, or touchdown basis.
• All three comparables (James, Bush, and Bernard) raised their per-game fantasy totals in their second seasons.

It's not hyperbole to say Alvin Kamara is a one-of-a-kind player.

What's Changed This Year?

New Orleans underwent very few changes this offseason, which bodes well for Kamara's ability to sustain last year's productivity. Head coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael are back. Drew Brees re-signed for another Super Bowl push. The offensive line's key starters remain the same. Ben Watson returns for an encore performance at tight end, but he's long past his prime. At receiver, Cameron Meredith and rookie TreQuan Smith add depth, but neither are real threats to dislodging Kamara's role.

Does Mark Ingram’s Suspension Change Things?

Veteran Mark Ingram has been suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Ingram happens to be a free agent, so the suspension comes at an inopportune time for the veteran. Some analysts believe Ingram’s suspension means an increased workload for Kamara, but don’t count on it. Sean Payton isn’t going to force Kamara into a role he’s unsuited for, and after last year’s sensational debut, there’s no reason to expect the coaches to force Kamara into becoming a bellcow. Kamara never carried the ball more than 12 times in a game, and his efficiency benefitted by the judicious usage. Expect Kamara to average 10-to-12 carries per game regardless of Ingram’s status. Payton and Carmichael will use the other running backs to fill Ingram’s role during September.

Projections