11 Running Back Situations You Must Get Right in 2025
We’ve had full offensive projections live since February, making us one of the first, if not the first, fantasy football sites in the industry to publish detailed statistical outlooks. But when you release projections just weeks after the Super Bowl, you're forced to make a slew of assumptions. At that point, free agency and the NFL draft hadn’t happened yet, and we didn’t have much information about what the new offensive play-callers intended to do.
Since then, the landscape has become much clearer. We've also seen an onslaught of other analysts publish their expectations. The influx of opinions helps solidify a consensus, and that consensus heavily influences the average draft position (ADP) data we’ll see as draft season approaches.
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Even with the benefit of hindsight, unanswered questions remain. Many won’t be resolved until deep into training camp or the preseason. These gray areas are where the widest range of viewpoints emerge, and they are the very situations that can swing your fantasy draft. These are the spots where taking a stand matters most, and our goal is to help you gain an edge before you're on the clock.
Let’s take a look at the key running back situations and where we stand versus consensus:
- D'Andre Swift (CHI) will be one of the best values at the position
- Quinshon Judkins (CLE) will be an instant fantasy starter
- The Cowboys (DAL) committee will be effective collectively, but provide little reliable fantasy help
- RJ Harvey (DEN) will emerge from Denver’s committee
- Travis Etienne Jr.’s (JAX) best days are behind him in Jacksonville
- Omarion Hampton (LAC) is a star, but Najee Harris will be viable, too
- TreVeyon Henderson (NE) and Rhamondre Stevenson will split touches
- Cam Skattebo (NYG) isn’t a threat to Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s lead role
- Kaleb Johnson (PIT) and Jaylen Warren will be 1A and 1B
- Ken Walker III (SEA) remains the lead back, but Zach Charbonnet will commoditize his upside
- Christian McCaffrey (SF) will be a must-start fantasy RB1 again this season
D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
| Projections | Games | Rushes | RuYds | RuTDs | Recs | ReYds | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 15.0 | 225.0 | 937 | 6.5 | 39.0 | 300 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Bob Henry | 15.0 | 230.0 | 960 | 6.0 | 40.0 | 295 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Jason Wood | 15.0 | 220.0 | 913 | 7.0 | 38.0 | 304 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Assumption: Swift is a massive bargain unless Chicago adds a legitimate alternative
D’Andre Swift’s current ADP (RB28) belies the situation he’s stepping into as head coach Ben Johnson installs his offensive system. Swift has been an up-and-down player and isn’t without flaws, but the Bears did nothing to create real competition for him atop the depth chart. We know Coach Johnson wants a balanced offense; it was the hallmark of Detroit’s success and allowed Jared Goff to thrive despite not being an elite talent in his own right. Caleb Williams is going to lean on play-action, and Swift should be in line for a career workload, barring a late-summer addition of a veteran like J.K. Dobbins. If the Bears do add Dobbins or another proven back, we’ll have to revisit our enthusiasm for Swift.
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns
| Projections | Games | Rushes | RuYds | RuTDs | Recs | ReYds | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 15.0 | 216.5 | 943 | 7.3 | 31.5 | 235 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Bob Henry | 15.0 | 218.0 | 960 | 8.5 | 27.0 | 200 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Jason Wood | 15.0 | 215.0 | 925 | 6.0 | 36.0 | 270 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Assumption: Judkins will be an instant fantasy starter
Draft capital matters. While first-round rookie running backs are among the safest bets in fantasy, second-rounders also carry an enticing hit rate, especially when we can confidently project them to open the season with major roles. Although the Browns are a potential mess, particularly at quarterback, the offensive line is top-notch, and Coach Stefanski knows his offense needs to return to the balanced approach that defined Nick Chubb’s prime years. Judkins should be part of one of the best rookie running back classes in recent memory. We’re slightly higher than consensus (RB23 vs. RB25) but would make Judkins a priority.
Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and Jaydon Blue, Dallas Cowboys
Bob Henry's Projections
| Player | Games | Rushes | RuTDs | RuYds | Recs | RecTDs | RecYds | FanPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15.0 | 145.0 | 3.5 | 530 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 195 | 128.5 |
| Jaydon Blue | 15.0 | 113.0 | 3.0 | 495 | 22.0 | 2.0 | 190 | 119.5 |
| Miles Sanders | 14.0 | 80.0 | 1.5 | 295 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 80 | 61.0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 16.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 30 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 85 | 33.5 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 14.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 20 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 25 | 8.5 |
| Phil Mafah | 15.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2.5 |
Jason Wood's Projections
| Player | Games | Rushes | RuTDs | RuYds | Recs | RecTDs | RecYds | FanPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15.0 | 150.0 | 4.0 | 570 | 43.0 | 2.0 | 284 | 164.4 |
| Miles Sanders | 15.0 | 125.0 | 3.0 | 525 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 119 | 105.4 |
| Jaydon Blue | 15.0 | 75.0 | 2.0 | 338 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 12 | 49.0 |
| Phil Mafah | 15.0 | 50.0 | 1.0 | 185 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 30 | 32.5 |
| Hunter Luepke | 15.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 18 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 40 | 10.8 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 15.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 20 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 26 | 6.6 |
Assumption: Williams will be the first RB drafted, but none of the options will help you win your league
New head coach Brian Schottenheimer wants to turn the Cowboys into a power-running team, but like Mick Jagger said, you can’t always get what you want. The offensive line projects as one of the league’s worst, and the front office inexplicably passed on premium options in favor of two veteran castoffs and a few late-round rookies. Only 2% of Day 3 rookie running backs finish as top-24 fantasy assets. Betting on Jaydon Blue to buck that trend ignores history. If you’re taking a flier on this backfield, target Miles Sanders (ADP: RB75) or Phil Mafah (ADP: RB84) in the last round of your draft.