A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 7 Votes
Chris Carson, Seattle
Drew Davenport: There are plenty of things that can be said about Seattle refusing to let their franchise quarterback throw more passes, but one small benefit of that attitude is that their running backs are going to get lots of opportunities to touch the ball. Everyone knows that in fantasy football opportunities are a huge part of the equation. While Rashad Penny is there to challenge Carson, to date there are no signs that he is going to push Carson for the RB1 touches in this offense. In fact, there are rumblings that Carson may play a bigger role in the passing game. Either way, Carson's modest ADP doesn't reflect the potential he has in this offense. He should easily outperform where he is being selected.
Jeff Haseley: In the last seven weeks of 2018, Chris Carson concluded the season with 654 yards and 7 scores on 136 carries (good enough to be RB5 in that span). In 2018 he was 5th in goal-line carries, 6th in yards created after the first missed tackle, and 3rd in evaded tackles. I find it hard to believe that Seattle won't give him the first chance at the lead running back role and I don't see him relinquishing it once he has it.
Ryan Hester: No team ran the ball more often than Seattle last season, and Carson spearheaded that attack – particularly late in the season. This year, Rashaad Penny should emerge and get a larger piece of the pie. But Mike Davis is no longer with the team, meaning Carson’s role could remain the same or even increase with Penny’s. Carson isn’t a pass-catching back, but he did show the ability to make plays in the passing game with 20 receptions for 163 yards last year. C.J. Prosise and J.D. McKissic are still in the fold to help with the passing game, but neither offers the versatility that Carson does. Carson is the team’s most effective back when it comes to not telegraphing play calls with personnel. If he does earn the lion’s share of Seattle’s work, an RB2 finish is likely, making him a value.
Dan Hindery: Over the second half of the 2018 season, Carson was a top-10 fantasy running back in all scoring formats. That fact shouldn’t be surprising considering the Seahawks were the most run-heavy team in the NFL and Carson was the lead back in the Seahawks three-man rotation at the position. With Mike Davis now in Chicago, the rotation should only include two backs — Carson and Rashaad Penny. By all accounts, Carson will again be the top back. There is no reason he can’t pick up right where he left off and put together a full season of RB1 numbers.
Dwain McFarland: The Seahawks were the most run-heavy team in 2018 under new coordinator Brian Schottenheimer running the ball on 56% of attempts. Whether leading, tied or trailing, it didn’t matter. This team was run-heavy versus the league in every category. In 2019 the goal will again be to lean on the running game and the vertical passing game. With Mike Davis moving on to Chicago the Seahawks backfield likely goes from being a three-way committee down to two. Early this offseason there were rumors of Rashaad Penny eating more into Carson’s opportunities, but so far through camp, Carson has established himself again as the lead back. Both backs are reportedly going to be used more in the passing attack. Carson is likely to see somewhere between 50 and 60% of the rushing attempts, which makes him a value at current ADP.
Matt Waldman: The Rashaad Penny Invasion has lost steam because Penny still has difficulty working between the tackles in Seattle’s run scheme that differs from his years at San Diego State. A good receiver, Penny will earn enough production in the passing game to have fantasy relevance. However, Carson is the back to have in Seattle and the staff likes his development as a receiver to the point that it wants to feed him more often in this phase of the game. Look for Carson to earn the majority of red zone opportunities among the Seahawk running backs and maintain the majority of carries in a high-volume rushing offense that will not be scared into passing even when behind by 10-17 points during the first three-quarters of a game.
Jason Wood: What does Chris Carson have to do to earn respect? He ran for 1,151 yards, caught 20 passes for 163 yards, and scored nine times. He was a workhorse and finished as the No. 14 fantasy back, in spite of missing two games. While some fear Rashaad Penny will vulture touches, his increased role will merely offset Mike Davis’ – who signed with the Bears. Seattle led the league in rushing attempts last year and intends to have the same ball-control, balanced offense again in 2019. Carson was a high-end RB2 a season ago when no one expected it, and now he’s being valued like a middling RB3 when everyone should expect otherwise.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Latavius Murray, New Orleans
Drew Davenport: Sean Payton has turned New Orleans into a team that wants to run the football. They started out the first month of 2018 struggling mightily on defense, but when that turned around the Saints offense morphed into what they'll look like if they have their choice. Murray was signed to replace Mark Ingram and has arguably better chops near the goal line. It's a solid bet that as the back that the Saints want to use to run the ball when they have lead and to put the ball into the end zone, he is an easy pick to outperform his ADP.
Ryan Hester: With Alvin Kamara present, it’s easy to assume that Murray will be relegated to pure backup duties. But New Orleans has committed to using two backs throughout Sean Payton’s tenure. Mark Ingram averaged 185 carries and 44 receptions over the past four seasons, and that includes two 12-game campaigns. Murray has shown the ability to be productive on limited touches – especially where it counts. Over the last four seasons, only Todd Gurley (46) has more rushing touchdowns than Murray (32). Coincidentally, Ingram is fifth on that list (30). Murray has standalone value in any given week as an efficient player with touchdown equity. And if Kamara ever missed time, Murray would project at or near an RB1 in any given week.
Chad Parsons: Alvin Kamara is more likely to stay in his traditional role than elevate to a true workhorse with Murray added and in the Mark Ingram role of the committee. Murray offers flex lineup potential even with Kamara healthy and a top-5 upside any game Kamara misses. Murray is far more than a handcuff as an integral piece of those of the best offenses in the NFL.
Jeff Pasquino: Murray is going to be a steal for those lucky enough to understand his likely role in New Orleans. Murray has a strong history of scoring touchdowns from short yardage, scoring 19 of his 26 touchdowns from 2015-2017 from inside the 5-yard line. Murray had fewer chances last year (only two short-yardage scores) as the Vikings struggled in goal-line situations (Murray had only seven attempts, Dalvin Cook just three). As recently as 2017, the Saints had two Top 8 running backs in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram II, with Ingram scoring eight touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line on 16 carries that season. Murray appears to be poised to step into Ingram’s former role, and not only has feature-back upside if Kamara misses any action but also offers RB2 value on his own with a big role in a high-octane Saints offense.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia
Phil Alexander: Sanders' play in training camp quickly dispelled the notion Jordan Howard will open the year as the Eagles' primary running back. It should have been obvious all along. Howie Roseman is a notoriously shrewd GM. When he selected a running back inside of Round 2 for the first time in seven years on the job, the signal was loud and clear. Sanders provides Roseman and the Eagles with a tactical advantage none of the other one-dimensional backs on the roster can match. The broad route tree he showed at Penn State, combined with his speed, agility, and patience make Sanders an ideal fit in Philadelphia’s scheme. The Eagles have a healthy Carson Wentz, excellent pass-catching depth, and a top-three offensive line. Given 14-16 touches per game in a timeshare with Howard, Sanders will be in the weekly RB2 discussion, and if he gets the backfield to himself, we'll be talking about him as a first-round pick next year.
Ryan Hester: Rookies have a learning curve to overcome, but the only player standing in the way of Sanders and a big role is the one-dimensional Jordan Howard. So far in camp, Sanders is showing the dynamic playmaking that Howard lacks. And he has impressed in pass blocking as well. If he doesn’t work out, ideally another mid-to-late pick does. But if he gets the lion’s share of work in what should be a high-end offense, he’s a steal at his current ADP.
Andy Hicks: Philadelphia has a lot of talented backs on its roster and used a second-round pick on Miles Sanders. His impact may not be immediate, but he should be able to earn his playing time over the more experienced Jordan Howard and Corey Clement. Patience may be needed as the veterans are likely to see the large majority of snaps early in the season, but his performance in training camp and preseason has him not far off the mark already.
Dan Hindery: Philadelphia is a forward-thinking, analytics-heavy front office that hadn’t spent any real draft capital on the running back position in the many years prior to the selection of Miles Sanders in the second round. Clearly, they expect him to be an impact playmaker on offense. It is also worth noting that the Eagles spent approximately 12x the draft capital to acquire Sanders as they did to trade for Jordan Howard (according to the Pro Football Reference draft value chart). Sanders is especially intriguing from a fantasy perspective because of his pass-catching skills and his late-season potential. We should place a much heavier value on fantasy production late in the season — especially during the fantasy playoffs. Even if Sanders shares snaps evenly with Howard early in the season, he has a good chance to emerge as the go-to back by Week 14.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Matt Breida, San Francisco
Ryan Hester: Breida is still being drafted as though a) he’s the clear No. 3 back; or b) Tevin Coleman is going to be a three-down workhorse. But neither of those things are true. First, Jerick McKinnon’s knee is still troublesome. Second, the assumption of rational coaching (shout-out to Sigmund Bloom) says that Breida will get touches every week behind Coleman. And Breida has RB1 potential in any given week that Coleman is hurt. In a weird way, Breida is to Coleman what Coleman was to Devonta Freeman during his Atlanta years. The biggest difference is that 2019 Breida is much cheaper than the 2017 and 2018 version of Coleman were.
Justin Howe: Breida has tumbled way too far down draft boards. He'll come back up a bit with the negative news surrounding Jerick McKinnon's recovery, but not far enough. Kyle Shanahan has long been capable of orchestrating offenses with two usable backs. Tevin Coleman is locked (lightly) into the lead role, but Breida could match or even exceed his output. Last year, fighting through a nagging ankle injury that limited him down the stretch, he managed 1,075 scrimmage yards over 10 full games and just chunks of 4 others. His 6.0 yards per touch landed ninth among qualifying backs, and he wound up as the per-game RB28. Based on last year’s efficiency, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Breida top this backfield in fantasy production.
Royce Freeman, Denver
Daniel Simpkins: Freeman has been impressing the new coaching staff. The blocking scheme should be better for the second-year runner, who also dealt with a dreaded high ankle sprain in his rookie year. In terms of production, it’s easy to tell a story in which Freeman and Lindsey swap their primary and ancillary roles this year.
Matt Waldman: The Broncos returned to a zone-based blocking scheme this year, which is an excellent fit for Freeman. In fact, the Broncos coaching staff compared the running back roles in this scheme to that of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman when the duo was in Atlanta. Royce will play the Devonta Freeman role and Phillip Lindsay and Theo Riddick will split the Coleman role. It makes Freeman the most valuable runner on the depth chart because he’ll earn the majority of touches inside the opponents’ five yard-line as well a high share of carries between the tackles. Despite missing a lot of time with a high ankle sprain last year, Freeman was among the NFL’s leaders in yards after contact despite playing at less than 100 percent. Look for Freeman to approach double-digit touchdowns and 1,000 yards this year.
Sony Michel, New England
Jeff Haseley: Sony Michel had at least two red zone carries in all but two games last year. His 43 red zone touches were 8th best among RBs. I have a feeling his 6 TDs will see a spike in 2019. His goal-line carries per game were 7th most in the league. He's due for a boost in touchdowns.
Andy Hicks: The ever-evolving offense in New England seems to take unexpected twists and turns throughout a season, let alone through the years. It was clear however that once he established himself in the offense Sony Michel ran strong and hard often exceeding 20 carries in a game. Surprisingly he was almost invisible as a receiver with the presence of James White taking away a key part of his game. He is more than adequate in this area and may see more work moving forward. A risky week to week proposition, but over the course of a season should be a solid fantasy starter. The drafting of Damien Harris seems to be a cover bet by the Patriots in case injury hits this side.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Kalen Ballage, Miami
Jason Wood: When Ballage received the first carry of training camp, most disregarded it as happenstance. When he opened the next practice as the first-team running gap, the murmurs began. As each practice went on, it was impossible to discount the reality – Ballage is, at worst, on even footing with Kenyan Drake. At best, Ballage is the new coaching staff’s choice to lead the running attack. The 6-foot-2, 227-pound bruiser is well-suited to handle the interior pounding on first and second downs, leaving Drake (53 catches in 2018) to serve as the complementary third-down specialist. While Ballage’s ascent is hardly assured, he has the lowest ADP of any running back currently getting a legitimate look at a No. 1 role. That’s a roll of the dice worth taking.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland
Will Grant: Duke Johnson Jr moving on give Chubb a bump and clears up the pecking order a bit in Cleveland. People were nervous about this and Chubb fell to the bottom of the second round. He moves to the top of the 2nd now - maybe even into the 1st. I'd feel confident taking him with one of the 2 picks on the turn.
Tevin Coleman, San Francisco
Phil Alexander: The drumbeat for Coleman leading the 49ers backfield committee has been steady since OTAs, but fantasy gamers have been slow to bite due to concerns about the team's stacked running back depth chart. After two weeks of training camp, however, Jerick McKinnon doesn't look likely to contribute this season, leaving oft-injured, 195-pound Matt Breida as Coleman's only competition for touches. Coleman racked up a career-best 421 receiving yards in 13 games under San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan in 2016 while playing second-fiddle to Devonta Freeman. Shanahan’s backfields have ranked 14th, third, first, and seventh in running back receptions over the last four seasons and Coleman has reportedly been lining up at receiver in off-season practices more than he did under Shanahan in Atlanta. Even in a 60/40 timeshare with Breida, Coleman's PPR-friendly role and big-play ability give him top-10 running back upside.
Kenyan Drake, Miami
Jeff Haseley: Drake had 8 total touchdowns last year with 53 recs on 73 targets (12th among RBs). He commanded 61% of the team's snap share (16th among RBs). He is by far the better receiver than Kalen Ballage and Miami's game script should yield a lot of target opportunities. Drake can easily be drafted as an RB3 and he fits in perfectly for a flex option, especially in PPR leagues.
Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers
Phil Alexander: LA made it clear who their primary backup is when they gave Ekeler at least 17 total touches in the three games he played with Melvin Gordon sidelined last year. Justin Jackson will mix in as a backup if Gordon's holdout is prolonged, but Ekeler simply adds more to his touches. Last season, Ekeler averaged more PPR fantasy points per touch than any relevant running back not named Christian McCaffrey. Even if Gordon reports before Week 1, he'll return as an injury-prone back who missed all of training camp. Ekeler, who received double-digit touches in four out of 10 games played with Gordon active last year, will have a steady role in the offense regardless, and there is always a chance (albeit slim) the Chargers decide to trade Gordon rather than pay him.
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta
Dwain McFarland: Freeman should be a strategic part of many draft plans this summer. Yes, he has injury concerns, but given the upside in volume available with Tevin Coleman departing for San Francisco, he is worth a third-round pick. His median projection puts him at a mid to late second draft value. New offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, has a strong history of utilizing running backs in the passing game before his time in Tampa when he didn’t have the talent to do it. Getting Freeman in the mid to late third is probably too high of a discount given his upside to crack RB1 status as the lead rushing and receiving back for a potent offense.
Todd Gurley, LA Rams
Daniel Simpkins: The hate has gone too far. A diminished workload will still leave a runner who will carry and catch the ball over 20 times a game on one of the best offenses in the NFL. At worst, Gurley will finish among the top six at running back, and he’s being drafted well outside that range currently.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee
Drew Davenport: This is a tricky situation because Henry is currently still working his way back from a calf strain early in camp. The good thing is that this has thrown some cold water on his ADP. If it's true that Henry turned the corner with his playing style down the stretch last year, then his current spot makes no sense. Henry's preseason injury and the questions about whether or not he can be the same back as he showed are baked into his draft spot. Take the discount and if he's the Henry from the end of 2018 he'll crush today's ADP.
Jordan Howard, Philadelphia
Matt Waldman: Howard earned RB18 production last year in a committee with Tarik Cohen—including a stretch run where he was the No.11 fantasy runner after Week 12. He’s an excellent inside runner who earns more big-play runs than many realize and he’s one of the league’s best pass protectors at the position. A tough, physical runner who produces even when playing hurt, Howard has a strong track record of ball security. Teammate Miles Sanders has garnered more excitement in the fantasy community but the rookie is less mature of a decision-maker, still developing as a pass protector, and his college career fumble rate is atrocious. Sanders’ current draft value is based on excitement over his athletic ability. Sanders is the flashier player, but Howard is the superior back this year and working in an even stronger offense.
Carlos Hyde, Kansas City
Jeff Pasquino: Confusion abounds as to what the Chiefs will do with no Kareem Hunt entering this season. Damien Williams appears to be the next man up, but Andy Reid has a history of using several backs in a committee approach if it suits his offensive needs. Carlos Hyde offers a very cheap option to get a piece of a high-powered Kansas City offense, and Hyde can easily carve out third- and passing-down roles over Williams. Looking back at his most recent seasons as a feature lead back in San Francisco (2016, 2017), Hyde scored 17 touchdowns total for those two years while breaking 900 yards rushing each season. His 59 catches in 2017 highlight the added dimension Hyde offers for Kansas City’s offense, including lining up on the field with Williams in some formations. Hyde has value even with a split role for the Chiefs, and he certainly offers even more if he wins the top spot in training camp.
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit
Will Grant: Earlier this summer, Johnson was an early third-round selection. But a closer look at his projections should have him much higher. Theo Riddick has moved on, leaving Johnson as the feature back. Unless the Lions add a veteran before the start of the season, Johnson is a lock for a top-10 finish at running back - especially in a PPR league. That moves him squarely into the second round for most drafts - probably the top half. Solid value at his current ADP.
Lamar Miller, Houston
Jason Wood: Lamar Miller is the antithesis of a sexy pick. In an era when every fantasy drafter shoots for upside, Miller is ultimately the running back someone picks because they can’t avoid the value, not because they’re excited at the prospect. Yet, fantasy points count whether they’re surprising or not. With the Texans acquiring Duke Johnson Jr, many will avoid Miller. That would be a mistake because Miller doesn't make his fantasy bones on third down, anyway. Miller ranked RB23 a year ago, in PPR formats, and that should be his floor this year given the Texans commitment to a balanced offensive attack. Even modest positive touchdown regression could push Miller into the Top 20, yet you’re paying a much lower price.
David Montgomery, Chicago
Will Grant: This may be the case of people putting too much stock in early training camp noise and pre-season games but Montgomery's stock is on a rocket right now, and he's now into the territory of overvalued and still climbing. Mike Davis was acquired early this summer and still has the best shot to be considered the 'primary' back in Chicago. If that happens, he and Tarek Cohen will severely limit Montgomery's upside. Unless something drastic happens before the regular season, Montgomery is going two or three rounds higher than he should be right now.
Adrian Peterson, Washington
Andy Hicks: At age 34, it is clear that Adrian Peterson could be finished at any time. That said he still had life last year and with Washington likely to start a rookie quarterback and below-average receivers, they will attempt to run the ball. Derrius Guice is an unproven commodity, coming off an ACL tear, while Peterson is a future Hall of Famer who is just off a 1000 yard year. Both should see plenty of work and the best man will see the majority. There is no reason that Peterson cannot be the dominant back and while his upside doesn’t approach that of Guice, he comes at a bargain draft price.
Ito Smith, Atlanta
Jeff Pasquino: Much is expected of Smith this season, with Tevin Coleman now in San Francisco. Smith inherits the second running back spot in Atlanta, a role he filled admirably (90-315-4 rushing, 27-152 receiving) last season after Devonta Freeman was lost for the season after just two games. In prior seasons when Atlanta had both Freeman and Coleman, both backs shared the workload and were productive (both finished as Top 22 fantasy backs in both 2016 and 2017). Smith should produce solid RB3-flex numbers in a Coleman-like role at a minimum, and RB2-type production is not out of the question. Lastly, if Freeman gets hurt (yet again), Smith offers a ton of upside.
James White, New England
Justin Howe: White continues to go undervalued as drafters chase more ground-based workhorses. He’s not much of a runner; in fact, last year’s 94 attempts were a career-high that could easily dip again. But there’s no Patriot besides White and Julian Edelman with a clear, crucial role in the Patriots offense. That’s an offense that ran 1,073 snaps last year – and vacates 228 targets for 2019. Chasing the Patriots’ ground production may be fool’s gold, but White is locked tightly into a key niche all across the offense. Last year’s 87 receptions look doable again, and it wasn’t a fluke to see White find the end zone 12 times. Few teams find themselves in the red zone more often, and Tom Brady loves to look for White there.
Damien Williams, Kansas City
Will Grant: A bit of a reversal for me as I had Williams as one of my value plays earlier this summer. Kansas City has announced that they'll go RBBC this year and expect to cap Williams at 20 touches or so per game. That bumps him down about a round from his current ADP and he's someone you should still target, but more at the end of the 3rd, top of the 4th round range now.
