Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Cousins ($8,200) + Diggs ($8,000) = $16,200
DraftKings: Cousins ($6,700) + Diggs ($7,600) = $14,300
Facing the No. 26 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 30 ranked pass defense allowing 280.1 yards per game
Game Total - 43
Implied Totals - Vikings at 28 points and Lions at 15 points
Game Line - Minnesota Vikings -12.5
The Minnesota Vikings are at home versus the Detroit Lions for a Week 14 NFC North contest, and they are a 12.5-point home favorite in this matchup. The implied number for the Vikings has them at four scores (28), and there should be opportunities for them in this contest as the Lions are underperforming against the pass.
Cousins started the season slowly, but he has picked up his play and is performing at a high level right now. He threw three touchdowns in the season’s first four games but has thrown for 20 scores over the past eight games. Back in Week 7, he threw for four touchdowns on the road against the Lions. The Lions pass defense is struggling, and the Vikings will have a chance to put up gaudy numbers against them.
The Lions have given up 25 scores through the air which are fifth-most in the NFL. They allow a 7.8-yard average which is eighth-highest in the NFL. They have given up 53 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are third-most in the NFL. They have also surrendered eight passing plays of 40-plus yards, and only seven teams league-wide have surrendered more of these types of plays.
The Lions have not figured a way to get pressure on the quarterback, and they are allowing the opposing quarterback too much time in the pocket. They have only generated 24 sacks in 2019, and only four teams in the NFL have produced fewer sacks to date. Cousins should have time to allow routes to develop, and that means big things for their passing attack.
Diggs has been the first option in the Vikings passing attack with receiver Adam Thielen out since injuring himself early in the Vikings Week 7 win versus Detroit. Diggs has seen 25 targets over the past four games. He has caught 13 passes for 199 yards, and he has scored one touchdown in that span.
Given the matchup, it is easy to see that Cousins and Diggs are an excellent stack for GPP play this week.
Pivot: Wide receiver Adam Thielen ($7,300 at FanDuel and $6,700 at DraftKings) has been out for the majority of six games, and he is nearing a return. If he returns this week, he is an excellent option given the matchup, but Thielen also would be risky as he might aggravate the hamstring injury. He is questionable as of this writing with that injury, and you want to monitor his status throughout the rest of the week.
Wide receiver Olabisi Johnson ($5,000 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) would be a super intriguing option if Thielen were to miss this game. The Lions are struggling in all phases, but Johnson avoids cornerback Darius Slay, and the Lions have been torched for weeks by secondary options.
Tight end Kyle Rudolph ($4,800 at FanDuel and $4,400 at DraftKings) started the season slowly, but he has picked up his production with Thielen out. He has 21 targets in the past four games, catching 16 passes for 154 yards while scoring five touchdowns over that span.
FanDuel: Darnold ($7,700) + Crowder ($6,000) = $13,700
DraftKings: Darnold ($6,000) + Crowder ($5,300) = $11,300
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 23 ranked pass defense allowing 256.2 yards per game
Game Total - 45
Implied Totals - Jets at 25 points and Dolphins at 20 points
Game Line - New York Jets -5
The New York Jets are at home versus the Miami Dolphins for a Week 14 AFC East matchup, and they are a five-point home favorite in this matchup. The Dolphins are having trouble defending the pass, and Darnold and the Jets passing game options could post big numbers in this game. The Jets implied number is 25 points, but there is a strong possibility the Jets can go over that number which means value.
Darnold has been up and down in 2019, but he has picked up the pace over the past several weeks. He threw for four scores three weeks ago versus Washington and followed that up with a three-touchdown (two passing and one rushing) performance versus Oakland in Week 12. He did not throw a touchdown last week versus Cincinnati, but he has a chance to put up gaudy numbers against Miami in Week 14.
The Dolphins have given up 29 scores through the air which are second-most in the NFL. They allow an 8.1-yard average which is fifth-highest in the NFL. They have given up 51 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are fourth-most in the NFL.
When considering the above numbers, we need to note that the Dolphins are only defending 32.9 passes per game, and only eight teams across the league defend fewer passes than the Dolphins. Teams are getting to the Dolphins pass defense through big plays, and they are getting gashed even though there is not much volume.
Also, the Dolphins are unable to generate much pressure on the opposing quarterbacks as they have only registered 16 sacks to date. No team in the NFL has fewer sacks in 2019, and that means Darnold will have a little extra time in the pocket to allow routes to develop. That is nothing but positive for the Jets passing game as a whole.
Crowder is the first option in the Jets passing attack, and he has 27 targets in the past four games. He has 14 catches for 183 yards and two scores over that span. There is a definitive path to GPP success for Crowder against the Dolphins, and he and Darnold are an intriguing GPP stack in Week 14.
Pivot: Wide receiver Robby Anderson ($6,400 at FanDuel and $5,100 at DraftKings) is a vertical threat, and he can take the top off the defense in a flash. He is a pure home-run hitter, and it will not take much volume for him to be worthy of GPP play.
Tight end Ryan Griffin ($5,600 at FanDuel and $4,100 at DraftKings) has played exceptionally well this year, and he has been very consistent in 2019. He has 16 targets, and he has caught 14 passes for 150 yards, and he has scored twice over that span. He is an excellent GPP play in Week 14.
FanDuel: Tannehill ($7,300) + Brown ($5,400) = $12,700
DraftKings: Tannehill ($5,800) + Brown ($5,300) = $11,100
Facing the No. 28 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 24 ranked pass defense allowing 258.2 yards per game
Game Total - 46.5
Implied Totals - Titans at 24.5 points and Raiders at 22 points
Game Line - Tennessee Titans -2.5
The Tennessee Titans are on the road versus the Oakland Raiders on Sunday for a Week 14 matchup. The Titans implied number has them over three touchdowns (24.5), and if they can get over that number this week, their offensive weapons bring value as they will outperform their price.
Tannehill became the starter for Tennessee when Marcus Mariota was sent to the bench, and he has played very well since taking over the starting job. He has thrown for 12 touchdowns, 1602 yards, and four interceptions to go along with 128 yards and three touchdowns rushing. He has a chance to put up gaudy numbers against the Raiders on Sunday.
The Raiders have given up 27 scores through the air which are third-most in the NFL. They are surrendering an 8.2-yard average which is fourth-highest in the NFL. The Raiders have given up 56 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. The Raiders have also yielded 13 passing plays of 40-plus yards which are third-most in the NFL.
The Raiders struggle to generate pressure and have registered 27 sacks in 2019. That is the ninth-fewest number of sacks in the NFL in 2019, and that means Tannehill will have a touch more time in the pocket, and that will help their receivers to uncover and get open in this matchup.
Brown has emerged as a primary-type option for the Titans passing attack as a rookie, and he is doing it because of his ability to separate at all areas of the field with a combination of precise footwork and great size.
He has 20 targets in the past four games, catching 12 passes for 278 yards while scoring once over that span. He has a chance to put up great numbers this week as the Raiders struggle to defend the pass, and he offers a significant savings in salary that allows you to spend up elsewhere.
Pivot: Wide receiver Corey Davis ($5,000 at FanDuel and $3,900 at DraftKings) is a competent receiver, but he has not been a primary option in 2019. He has 16 targets in the past four games, and he has caught nine passes for 109 yards over that span. The game script is very positive for the Titans passing attack, and he has a chance to put up excellent numbers this week.
Tight end Jonnu Smith ($4,900 at FanDuel and $3,100 at DraftKings) is an extremely exciting option at the tight end position for GPP play in Week 14. Smith should be very productive in this matchup, and he warrants consideration as he can get to GPP value relatively quickly in this matchup.
HIGH-RISK STACKS
Baker Mayfield + Jarvis Landry
FanDuel: Mayfield ($7,600) + Landry ($7,200) = $14,800
DraftKings: Mayfield ($6,300) + Landry ($6,500) = $12,800
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 21 ranked pass defense allowing 247.4 yards per game
Game Total - 40.5
Implied Totals - Browns at 24.5 points and Bengals at 16 points
Game Line - Cleveland Browns -8.5
The Cleveland Browns are at home this weekend as they face the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday for a Week 14 AFC North matchup. The Browns are expected to go over three touchdowns in the game (24.5), and it is not all that difficult to see Mayfield and the Browns receiving weapons getting them over the total in this game as the Bengals are struggling on defense.
Mayfield started the season poorly in 2019, struggling to get the passing offense in the end zone through the season’s first eight games. Mayfield threw for seven touchdowns and 12 interceptions through the first half of the season this year. He has thrown eight touchdowns and only two interceptions over the last four games, and he is playing excellent football right now.
The Bengals have done a good job of keeping receivers out of the end zone to this point of the season, allowing 16 scores to date. Only 10 teams in the league have allowed fewer scores through the air, but the Browns have the personnel to get the ball into the end zone this week.
The Bengals have surrendered an 8.5-yard average which is highest in the league. They have also yielded 51 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are fourth-most in the NFL. They have also given up nine passing plays of 40-plus yards which are seventh-most in the NFL.
The Bengals have struggled to generate pressure on the quarterback, registering only 20 sacks to date. Only two teams in the league have fewer sacks in 2019. The Browns have very dangerous receiving weapons, and they can hurt the Bengals to all areas of the field if they are given time. Mayfield is also very dangerous in extending plays with his feet, and if he can stand in the pocket and not feel pressure, he will light up the Bengals in Week 14.
Landry has emerged as the first option in the Browns passing attack. He has 41 targets in the past four games, catching 29 passes for 364 yards and four scores over that span. The Bengals are going to have their hands full this week, and Landry can beat them all over the field.
There is risk in choosing this stack in Week 14, and it is critical to understand that risk before choosing Mayfield and any Browns receiving option. Can the Bengals offense push the Browns offense at any level, or does the ground game become primary in this matchup? Also, injuries are a factor here with Mayfield, Landry, and receiver Odell Beckham are all nursing injuries as of this writing.
Mayfield injured his hand last week, and while he should play Sunday, there is risk there. Note that Landry is questionable with a hip injury as of this writing, and his status for Week 14 is up in the air. You want to see him get in a full practice before choosing to roster him.
Pivot: Wide receiver Odell Beckham ($6,800 at FanDuel and $6,300 at DraftKings) is a problematic receiver to defend as he can run past most anyone in the league, and he is very physical running after the catch. He has not made explosive plays consistently, and he is also dealing with a groin issue that has him questionable as of this writing. Monitor his status throughout the week, and make sure he is good to play Sunday before choosing to roster him.
RB/DST Stacks
Dalvin Cook + Vikings Defense
FanDuel: Cook ($8,700) + Vikings ($4,800) = $13,500
DraftKings: Cook ($9,500) + Vikings ($3,800) = $13,300
Facing the No. 20 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 23 ranked run defense allowing 118 yards per game
Game Total - 43
Implied Totals - Vikings at 28 points and Lions at 15 points
Game Line - Minnesota Vikings -12.5
The Minnesota Vikings are on the road versus the Detroit Lions on Sunday for a Week 14 NFC North matchup. The Vikings are a 12.5-point road favorite, and they should be able to take advantage of the Lions defense via the run on Sunday. Cook could post big numbers in this contest as the game script is incredibly favorable for the Vikings ground game.
The Lions are a middle of the pack run defense in a variety of ways, but the expectation is for a lot of volume for the Vikings running attack in this contest. It is through that volume where Cook can put up significant numbers in this game. If the Vikings get up in this game, and the expectation is they will, then Cook could produce monster stats in this game on Sunday.
The Lions are starting rookie quarterback David Blough, and he is going to throw the ball into dangerous spots. He also tends to stare at his first read, and the Vikings defense can bring pressure in confusing ways. This means potentially big things for the Vikings defense in this matchup. There is a definite path to GPP value for the Vikings defense, and they should be a building block for any GPP lineup in Week 14.
Note that Cook is questionable for this week’s game with a chest injury, and you want to see him get in a practice before making a choice to roster him. The expectation is that he will play this week, but you want to monitor his status throughout the week.
Pivot: Alexander Mattison ($5,100 at FanDuel and $4,500 at DraftKings) is a no-brainer type of play if Cook misses this contest. He might be an excellent pivot away from Cook if there are concerns about The Vikings getting up and pulling Cook from this game to protect him from further injury. Watch the practice reports and monitor this situation. This will be updated over the weekend.
Nick Chubb + Browns Defense
FanDuel: Chubb ($7,900) + Browns ($4,600) = $12,500
DraftKings: Chubb ($8,000) + Browns ($3,600) = $11,600
Facing the No. 27 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 32 ranked run defense allowing 157.6 yards per game
Game Total - 40.5
Implied Totals - Browns at 24.5 points and Bengals at 16 points
Game Line - Cleveland Browns -8.5
The Cleveland Browns are at home versus the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday for a Week 14 AFC North matchup. The Browns are an 8.5-point home favorite, and their ground game should feature heavily in this contest as they are favored by more than a touchdown.
The Bengals have allowed 13 scores in the ground which are third-most in the NFL. The Bengals have yielded a 4.8-yard average which is the fourth-highest average allowed in the NFL. The Bengals have also given up 20 runs of 20-plus yards which are most in the NFL.
Teams are getting to the Bengals run defense through volume as they have defended 32.6 runs per game, and no team in the NFL has defended more runs in 2019. It is safe to assume that Chubb will see the kind of volume that makes him an incredibly intriguing GPP play on Sunday.
The game script has the Browns up in this game, and Chubb should feature heavily in this matchup as they utilize the ground game late in this contest. Chubb has a chance to have a massive game against a bad run defense this week, and he should be a fixture in GPP lineups against the Bengals.
The Browns can pressure the passer, and they will be able to get to Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton in this game. The Bengals have given up 41 sacks this year, and only five teams league-wide have allowed more sacks to date.
The game script has the Browns up and relatively in command of this game, and that is going to keep Dalton throwing the ball which means the potential for more points for the Browns defense. The Browns defense has a path to GPP value as they should be able to amass production through sacks, turnovers, and potentially a big play on defense.
Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive, and it makes for an excellent stack for GPP play in Week 14.
Devonta Freeman + Falcons Defense
FanDuel: Freeman ($6,000) + Falcons ($3,500) = $9,500
DraftKings: Freeman ($5,400) + Falcons ($3,000) = $8,400
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 29 ranked run defense allowing 137.5 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Falcons at 25 points and Panthers at 22 points
Game Line - Atlanta Falcons -3
The Atlanta Falcons are at home versus the Carolina Panthers on Sunday for a Week 14 NFC South matchup. The Falcons are a three-point home favorite, and their ground game should feature heavily in this contest as the Panthers run defense has been a liability throughout the 2019 season.
The Panthers have allowed 22 scores in the ground which are most in the NFL by a wide margin. The Panthers allow a 5.3-yard average which is the highest average allowed in the NFL. The Panthers have also given up 18 runs of 20-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL, and they have surrendered five runs of 40-plus yards which are second-most in the league.
The Falcons have not done a good job of getting pressure on the quarterback in 2019, but they draw a team surrendering the fourth-most (45) sacks in the NFL this week. They will get to Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen, and he has thrown 10 interceptions since the Panthers bye in Week 7.
Allen has also lost five fumbles in 2019, and he tends to give the opposition an extra possession or two. The Falcons offense can make the Panthers pay if they turn the ball over, and the ground game could become featured in a scenario where Atlanta gets up and runs the football to shorten the game.
Freeman has a chance to outperform his price in this matchup dramatically, and the Falcons defense will get opportunities to make plays in this contest. Both sides of this stack have a path to GPP value, and this is an excellent stack for GPP play in Week 14.
