Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
Note: This article has been edited as of 10:10 AM on 12/1/19 to reflect the issues arising from injuries to Rams tight end Gerald Everett and Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. Everything added is in the red text has been added.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Patrick Mahomes II + Tyreek Hill
FanDuel: Mahomes ($8,600) + Hill ($8,300) = $16,900
DraftKings: Mahomes ($7,400) + Hill ($8,900) = $16,300
Facing the No. 30 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 28 ranked pass defense allowing 266.8 yards per game
Game Total - 51.5
Implied Totals - Chiefs at 30.5 points and Raiders at 21 points
Game Line - Kansas City Chiefs -9.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are at home this weekend as they face the Oakland Raiders on Sunday for a Week 13 AFC West matchup. This game carries the highest total of the week (51.5), and points are expected here. The Chiefs are expected to go over four touchdowns in the game (30.5), and it is not all that difficult to see Mahomes and the Chiefs receiving weapons getting them over the total in this game as the Raiders are struggling on defense.
Mahomes has thrown for 19 touchdowns and two interceptions in the nine games he has started in 2019. He has thrown for 2808 yards, and on the ground, he has accumulated 141 yards. He missed the Week 8 game versus Green Bay and the Week 9 game against Minnesota due to a knee injury, but he returned in Week 10 and picked up where he left off.
The Raiders have allowed 26 scores through the air which are second-most in the NFL. They have surrendered an 8.6-yard average which is third-highest in the league. They have also yielded 55 passing plays of 20-plus yards, and no team in the NFL allows more. They have also given up 12 passing plays of 40-plus yards which are third-most in the NFL.
The Raiders have struggled to generate pressure on the quarterback, registering only 26 sacks to date. Only nine teams in the league have fewer sacks in 2019. The Chiefs have very dangerous receiving weapons, and they can hurt the Raiders to all areas of the field. The Chiefs offense does not have a real weakness, and Mahomes can pick apart the porous Raiders secondary in this matchup.
Hill is a difficult receiver to defend as he can run past most anyone in the league, and safety help is not always the answer withy Mahomes’ ability to throw it deep with incredible touch and accuracy. The bottom line here is Hill can hurt the Raiders vertically if Mahomes has time in the pocket to allow deeper routes to develop.
Hill is the first option in the Falcons passing attack. He was injured very early in their Week 11 games versus the Chargers, but he had 42 targets in the four games leading up to Week 11. Hill caught 26 passes for 447 yards and three scores over that span. The Raiders are going to have their hands full this week, and Hill can beat them all over the field.
The Mahomes and Hill stack is an excellent GPP option for Week 13, and one that could pay off in a big way. However, Hill is questionable with a hamstring injury as of this writing, and you will want to pay attention to his status throughout the week to guarantee he will play on Sunday. Note the risk here as these kinds of soft-tissue injuries bring danger as there is a risk of aggravation.
Pivot: Wide receiver Sammy Watkins ($6,100 at FanDuel and $5,400 at DraftKings) is an exciting GPP option in this matchup as the Chiefs should be able to make plenty of plays on offense. Watkins needs to get into the end zone to get to GPP value, but the Raiders are giving up plenty of passing touchdowns. Watkins is worthy of consideration for GPP play in Week 13.
Wide receiver Mecole Hardman ($5,600 at FanDuel and $4,200 at DraftKings) is a no-brainer GPP option if Hill misses this game. He can make plays vertically as he has track speed, and Mahomes will give him opportunities down the field. He also makes an exciting pivot away from Hill and is an intriguing option for GPP play in Week 13.
Tight end Travis Kelce ($7,100 at FanDuel and $7,200 at DraftKings) is the game’s premier playmaker at the tight end position, and he sees enough target-volume to warrant consideration, even at his salary. Kelce has 34 targets in the last four games, and he has caught 25 passes for 292 yards and three scores over that span.
FanDuel: Goff ($7,900) + Kupp ($7,800) = $15,700
DraftKings: Goff ($6,000) + Kupp ($7,100) = $13,100
Facing the No. 28 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 297.5 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Rams at 25 points and Cardinals at 22 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Rams -3
The Los Angeles Rams are on the road versus the Arizona Cardinals for a Week 13 NFC West contest, and they are a three-point road favorite in this matchup. The implied number for the Rams has them nearing four scores (25), and there should be opportunities for them in this contest as the Cardinals are underperforming against the pass.
Goff and the Rams passing game have underperformed in 2019, and you have to go back to Week 8 to find a touchdown pass from Goff. The Rams passing attack looks out of sync, but the Cardinals come along at a good time, and the Rams will have a chance to put up gaudy numbers against them.
The Cardinals have given up 29 scores through the air which are most in the NFL. They allow an 8.3-yard average which is fourth-highest in the NFL. They have given up 50 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL.
The Cardinals have defended an average of 38 passes per game, and only three teams in the NFL have defended more. Their offense plays at a pace producing a significant number of plays, and that means plenty of snaps for the opposition too.
The game script is calling for precisely that, and that means good things for Goff and the Rams receiving weapons. The Cardinals offense is playing well, and if they can force Goff to throw, it means he (and his receivers) will outperform his price, and that’s gold for GPP purposes.
Kupp is the first option in the Rams passing attack, and he has seen 27 targets over the past four games. He has caught 16 passes for 308 yards, and he has scored one touchdown in that span. Note that he caught seven passes for 220 yards and a score four games ago, so things have dried up here during the Rams offensive woes.
The Rams have a chance to get healthy in this matchup though, and Kupp will have opportunities to get things back on track in Week 13. Goff and Kupp are an excellent stack for GPP play this week.
Pivot: Wide receiver Robert Woods ($7,100 at FanDuel and $5,500 at DraftKings) remains an attractive GPP option, but he needs to get into the end zone to justify his salary. This week’s matchup should provide hope, and he will have opportunities to make plays in this game.
Wide receiver Brandin Cooks ($6,700 at FanDuel and $5,200 at DraftKings) is a boom or bust option, and he stacks up nicely against a defense giving up a large number of big passing plays.
Tight end Gerald Everett ($6,300 at FanDuel and $4,600 at DraftKings) has emerged as an excellent weapon at tight end for the Rams. He has seen his target share drop considerably the past two games, but this matchup is fantastic as the Cardinals have been the team to target if you want to stream tight ends. It has not mattered who the tight end is, they have gone off against this defense, and it is Everett’s turn this week.
The Cardinals have struggled to handle the tight end, and let’s look at what they have done this year. They gave up six catches, 131 yards, and a score to T.J. Hockenson in Week 1 against the Lions. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews lit them up for eight catches, 112 yards, and a score in Week 2.
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen hit the Cardinals for 75 yards, two scores, and six catches in Week 3. In Week 4, it was Seahawks tight end Will Dissly’s turn. He went for seven catches, 57 yards, and a score. The Cardinals slowed the Bengals tight ends in Week 5, but Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton did miss tight end Tyler Eifert in the red zone.
It was Falcons tight end Austin Hooper’s turn to light up the Cardinals defense in Week 6, and he delivered. He had eight catches for 117 yards and a score. In Week 8, backup quarterback Taysom Hill and tight end Josh Hill took advantage of this matchup.
49ers tight end George Kittle caught six passes for 79 yards and a score against the Cardinals in Week 9, and Buccaneers tight end O.J. Howard caught four passes for 47 yards and scored a touchdown against the Cardinals in their Week 10 matchup.
49ers backup tight end Ross Dwelley caught four passed and scored twice against this defense two weeks ago and fullback Kyle Juszczyk register seven catches for 63 yards. The Cardinals had their bye week last week, but the truth is that fantasy production for tight ends has come through the Cardinals.
Note: Everett is out Sunday and tight end Tyler Higbee will replace him in the starting lineup. Higbee ($5,500 at FanDuel and $2,500 at DraftKings) is a value as he can exploit the Cardinals in this matchup.
Nick Foles + D.J. Chark
FanDuel: Foles ($7,500) + Chark ($6,900) = $14,400
DraftKings: Foles ($5,700) + Chark ($6,600) = $12,300
Facing the No. 25 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 289.9 yards per game
Game Total - 49
Implied Totals - Jaguars at 25 points and Buccaneers at 24 points
Game Line - Jacksonville Jaguars -1
The Jacksonville Jaguars are at home versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a Week 13 matchup, and they are a one-point home favorite in this matchup. The Buccaneers are having trouble defending the pass, and Foles and the Jaguars passing game options could post huge numbers in this game.
Foles started the season for the Jaguars but was injured in the season’s first week. He missed the next eight games recovering from a broken collarbone, and he returned in Week 11 versus the Indianapolis Colts.
He has thrown 95 passes in the two games he has played since returning, generating 568 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. The game script is exceptionally favorable for the Jaguars passing attack, and Foles should be able to put up great numbers in Week 13.
The Buccaneers have given up 26 scores through the air which are second-most in the NFL. They have given up 43 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are seventh-most in the NFL. They have also given up 10 passing plays of 40-plus yards which are fourth-most in the NFL.
Volume should be easy to come by for Foles as the Buccaneers have defended the most passes in the NFL on a per-game basis (41.9). The Buccaneers defense has been put into tough spots all year with quarterback Jameis Winston as he has thrown 20 interceptions and lost four fumbles in 11 games in 2019.
The Jaguars have registered 34 sacks to date which are fifth-most in the NFL. They will get pressure on Winston, and the Jaguars likely get a few extra offensive possessions from their defense in this game. Also, the Buccaneers have an incredibly potent offense, and this game could turn into a shootout which makes all the players attached to this game more valuable.
Chark is the first option in the Jaguars passing attack, and he is having an incredible season. He has caught eight touchdowns, and that is second league-wide to Buccaneers receiver Chris Godwin. Chark has 21 targets in the two games since Foles has returned. He has caught 13 passes for 142 yards and two scores in those games.
Chark is going to be counted on in this game to make plays down the field and in the red zone, and he should have enough opportunities to post huge numbers in this game. There is a definitive path to GPP success for him against the Buccaneers, and he might be one of the better GPP plays in Week 13.
Pivot: Wide receiver Dede Westbrook ($5,700 at FanDuel and $5,000 at DraftKings) can make plays, and he is worth a shot in this matchup with the script so favorable for the Jaguars passing attack. He has seen 15 targets in the past two games, catching 12 passes for 101 yards. Again, the script is incredibly favorable, and Westbrook will be very involved in this contest.
Wide receiver Chris Conley ($6,000 at FanDuel and $4,500 at DraftKings) is a dart throw in a high-scoring matchup against a team that is struggling to defend the pass. He has 17 targets in two games since Foles returned, catching 10 balls for 107 yards. The expectation is the targets and catches increase in this game, and if he can get into the end zone, he can be valuable for GPP play in Week 13.
HIGH-RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Wentz ($7,300) + Ertz ($6,900) = $14,200
DraftKings: Wentz ($5,800) + Ertz ($6,700) = $12,500
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 22 ranked pass defense allowing 252.7 yards per game
Game Total - 45
Implied Totals - Eagles at 27 points and Dolphins at 18 points
Game Line - Philadelphia Eagles -9
The Philadelphia Eagles are on the road versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for a Week 13 matchup. The Eagles implied number has them at four touchdowns (27), and their passing attack has a chance to get it going in this contest.
Wentz has been relatively steady in 2019, throwing for 17 touchdowns and six interceptions to go with 2530 yards in his 11 games. He has also generated for 188 yards and scored a touchdown while running with the ball. These are not the “MVP-type” numbers we have seen from Wentz in the recent past, and more is expected from the talented signal-caller.
The Dolphins have given up 26 scores through the air which are second-most in the NFL. They are surrendering an 8.2-yard average which is fifth-highest in the NFL. The Dolphins have given up 47 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are fifth-most in the NFL. Wentz should be able to carve up this defense on Sunday.
The Dolphins struggle to generate pressure and have only registered 14 sacks in 2019. That is the fewest number of sacks in the NFL in 2019, and that means Wentz might have a touch more time in the pocket to allow routes to develop this week.
When considering the Dolphins pass defense, something stands out that adds color, and that is the limited amount of passes the Dolphins defend weekly. They defend 31.7 passes per game, and only four teams in the NFL have defended fewer passes on a per-game basis. The Dolphins are getting gashed via the pass with little volume.
Volume is where part of the risk is in rostering this stack. Can the Dolphins put points on the board and push the Eagles to continue to throw the ball throughout all four quarters in this game? There is also risk because the Eagles receiving options are very banged up, and that takes a toll on an offense.
Can the receivers get through this game healthy? The Eagles offense has looked out of sync, and will that continue with the injuries they have to players like Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor?
Ertz is one of the game’s premier playmakers at the tight end position, and he can exploit defenses to all areas of the field. He has 40 targets in the past four games, catching 32 passes for 308 yards while scoring twice. He is the first option in the Eagles passing game, and he has a chance to have an outstanding game against the Dolphins in Week 13.
There are multiple layers of risk in utilizing the Eagles in GPP play in Week 13, but there is also considerable upside, and it is a bold stack that could pay off in a big way. Note that Wentz did injure his throwing hand last week, and it was called a bruise after the game. He practiced on full on Wednesday and is set to play on Sunday.
Pivot: Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery ($6,500 at FanDuel and $5,100 at DraftKings) has not played in two weeks and is questionable with an ankle injury as of this writing. He is a fantastic option for GPP play this week, but that is wholly dependent on his ability to take the field on Sunday. Monitor his status throughout the week and make sure he gets a full practice before rostering him. Proceed with caution with Jeffery as rostering him does add to the already significant risk here.
Wide receiver Nelson Agholor ($4,800 at FanDuel and $4,400 at DraftKings) did not play last week and is currently questionable with a knee injury. He practiced in a limited fashion on Wednesday, but you want to see him practice in full this week before deciding to roster him.
Tight end Dallas Goedert ($5,200 at FanDuel and $4,100 at DraftKings) is already an excellent GPP option, but he jumps into no-brainer territory if Jeffery and Agholor miss the game. The matchup is excellent, and Goedert would see enough targets to have a reasonable path to GPP value.
Note: Jeffery and Agholor have been cleared and are active for this matchup. However, there are reports that cast doubt on Ertz's availability for this game, but Goedert is a very capable tight and he is an excellent value in that case as he will see a heavy dose of targets, representing value at his price.
RB/DST Stacks
Miles Sanders + Eagles Defense
FanDuel: Sanders ($5,800) + Eagles ($5,000) = $10,800
DraftKings: Sanders ($5,400) + Eagles ($3,600) = $9,000
Facing the No. 29 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 31 ranked run defense allowing 148.2 yards per game
Game Total - 45
Implied Totals - Eagles at 27 points and Dolphins at 18 points
Game Line - Philadelphia Eagles -9
The Philadelphia Eagles are on the road versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday for a Week 13 matchup. The Eagles are a nine-point road favorite, and they should be able to take advantage of the Dolphins defense via the run on Sunday. Sanders could post big numbers in this contest.
The Dolphins allow a 4.7-yard average, and only six teams across the league allow a higher average. The Dolphins have allowed 11 scores on the ground, and only seven teams league-wide have surrendered more. They have also yielded nine runs of 20-plus yards which are fourth-most in the NFL. Also, they have yielded two runs of 40-plus yards, and only five teams in the NFL have allowed more.
The Dolphins are starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he tends to be careless with the ball at times which means there are chances for turnovers. Fitzpatrick has thrown 10 interceptions in the 10 games he has played. Also, the Eagles can pressure the quarterback as they have 31 sacks in 2019.
Only nine teams in the NFL have more sacks in 2019. Fitzpatrick will take sacks, and pressure can bring turnovers into play for the defense. That means potential for fantasy points for the defense.
The Dolphins have surrendered the most sacks (46) in the NFL, and the game script has the Eagles up and forcing the Dolphins to open up the offense and throw the ball to stay in the game. There will be opportunities for the Eagles defense to take advantage of the Dolphins this week.
The game script has the Eagles running game playing a significant role on Sunday. That means great things for this stack, making it an excellent option for GPP play in Week 13.
Aaron Jones + Packers Defense
FanDuel: Jones ($8,000) + Packers ($4,800) = $12,800
DraftKings: Jones ($6,800) + Packers ($3,400) = $10,200
Facing the No. 14 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 22 ranked run defense allowing 117.5 yards per game
Game Total - 45.5
Implied Totals - Packers at 26 points and Giants at 19.5 points
Game Line - Green Bay Packers -6.5
The Green Bay Packers are on the road versus the New York Giants on Sunday for a Week 13 NFC matchup. The Packers are a 6.5-point road favorite, and their ground game should feature heavily in this contest.
The Giants have allowed 13 scores in the ground which are third-most in the NFL. The Giants have also given up nine runs of 20-plus yards which are fourth-most in the NFL. Teams are getting to the Giants run defense through volume as they have defended 29.9 runs per game.
Only three teams across the league have defended more runs, and the game script is pointing for plenty of running-game volume again this week. Jones has a chance to have a huge game against the Giants on Sunday, and he could be a GPP star this week.
The Packers have not generated an excessive number of sacks as they are in the middle of the pack, but the Giants have given up 35 sacks in 2019, and only eight teams in the NFL have allowed more sacks through 11 games. They will get to Giants quarterback Daniel Jones this week, and he has shown a propensity to turn the ball over during his rookie campaign.
Jones has thrown eight interceptions and has lost an incredible 10 fumbles in his 10 games played. The Packers defense is going to give their offense extra possessions through sacks, fumbles, and interceptions, and Jones could tremendously benefit from these extra possessions.
The game script has the Packers up and relatively in command of this game, and that is going to keep Jones throwing the ball which means the potential for more points for the Packers defense. If it works out as forecast, Jones will have a big day on Sunday.
Jones is a fantastic runner and a dynamic receiving option out of the backfield. He is in the middle of an incredible season, on pace for 1400+ total yards, 51 catches, and 20 touchdowns. He is one of the league’s most dangerous runners, and he has a chance to build on those numbers in the matchup versus the Giants on Sunday.
Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive, and it makes for an excellent stack for GPP play in Week 13.
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