Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Russell Wilson + Tyler Lockett
FanDuel: Wilson ($8,300) + Lockett ($7,600) = $15,900
DraftKings: Wilson ($7,000) + Lockett ($7,600) = $14,600
Facing the No. 28 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 290.4 yards per game
Game Total - 50.5
Implied Totals - Seahawks at 30 points and Cardinals at 20.5 points
Game Line - Seattle Seahawks -9
The Seattle Seahawks are at home versus the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday for a Week 16 NFC West matchup. The Seahawks implied number has them over four touchdowns (30), and it is not out of line to see them going over that number in this matchup. The Seahawks offensive weapons will bring value as they will outperform their price if they can get over their implied number.
Wilson is playing excellent football to this point in the 2019 season. He has thrown for 3708 yards, 28 scores, and five interceptions while accumulating 311 rushing yards and three scores through 14 games. He will add to those numbers against the Cardinals as he should post outstanding numbers in Week 16.
The Cardinals have given up 34 scores through the air which are most in the NFL. They are surrendering an 8.2-yard average which is second-highest in the NFL. The Cardinals have given up 63 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are third-most in the NFL.
The Cardinals pass defense has faced significant volume to date, defending 37.5 passes per game. Only three teams in the NFL have defended more passes on a per-game basis. The Cardinals offense plays at a fast pace, wanting as many offensive snaps as possible, and Wilson could be busy in this contest. He will light up the Cardinals porous pass defense if given the opportunities.
Lockett is the primary option for the Seahawks passing attack. He shows excellent ability to separate in all areas of the field with a combination of precise footwork and quickness. Lockett is a fantastic route runner, and he has shown that he is a very potent weapon, capable of hurting a defense in the short and intermediate parts of the field, and also in the red zone.
Lockett has 20 targets in the past four games, catching 13 passes for 201 yards while scoring one time over that span. He went off last week for eight catches and 120 yards while scoring one touchdown. He has a chance to put up excellent numbers this week as the Cardinals struggle to defend the pass. Lockett and Wilson make an intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 16.
Pivot: Wide receiver DK Metcalf ($6,300 at FanDuel and $5,900 at DraftKings) has been very impressive as a rookie. He has shown the ability to win vertically with incredible straight-line speed, and he is a nightmare because of his big frame and huge catch radius. He can get to GPP value with relative ease in this matchup and has the potential to be a fantastic GPP option in Week 16.
Tight end Jacob Hollister ($5,700 at FanDuel and $4,200 at DraftKings) faces a defense that has been obliterated by the tight end consistently in 2019. Hollister has an opportunity to become the next in a long line of tight ends to torch the Cardinals defense, and he has a chance to post huge numbers this week.
The Cardinals have struggled to handle the tight end throughout the 2019 season, and let’s look at what they have done this year. They gave up six catches, 131 yards, and a score to T.J. Hockenson in Week 1 against the Lions. Ravens tight end Mark Andrews lit them up for eight catches, 112 yards, and a score in Week 2.
Panthers tight end Greg Olsen hit the Cardinals for 75 yards, two scores, and six catches in Week 3. In Week 4, it was Seahawks tight end Will Dissly’s turn. He went for seven catches, 57 yards, and a score. The Cardinals slowed the Bengals tight ends in Week 5, but Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton did miss tight end Tyler Eifert in the red zone.
It was Falcons tight end Austin Hooper’s turn to light up the Cardinals defense in Week 6, and he delivered. He had eight catches for 117 yards and a score. In Week 8, backup quarterback Taysom Hill and tight end Josh Hill took advantage of this matchup.
49ers tight end George Kittle caught six passes for 79 yards and a score against the Cardinals in Week 9, and Buccaneers tight end O.J. Howard caught four passes for 47 yards and scored a touchdown against the Cardinals in their Week 10 matchup.
49ers backup tight end Ross Dwelley caught four passed and scored twice while fullback Kyle Juszczyk registered seven catches for 63 yards in Week 10. Rams tight end Tyler Higbee caught seven passes and recorded 107 yards while scoring one touchdown in Week 13.
Last week, it was Browns tight end Ricky Seals-Jones burning the Cardinals defense, scoring twice. The Cardinals defense has been an excellent pathway for fantasy production to the tight end position throughout the 2019 season, and this week it is Hollister’s turn.
Deshaun Watson + DeAndre Hopkins
FanDuel: Watson ($8,600) + Hopkins ($8,700) = $17,300
DraftKings: Watson ($7,000) + Hopkins ($8,500) = $15,500
Facing the No. 29 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 294.2 yards per game
Game Total - 49.5
Implied Totals - Texans at 26.5 points and Buccaneers at 23 points
Game Line - Houston Texans -3.5
The Houston Texans are on the road this weekend as they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday for a Week 16 matchup. The Texans are expected to go over three touchdowns in the game (26.5). However, when considering the ability for both offenses to score, and looking at how poorly each team defends, it is conceivable that we will see the Texans go over their implied number with both teams scoring points easily. That means value for all of the skill position players in this matchup.
Watson has played exceptionally well in 2019, producing at a very high level to this date. He has thrown for 3668 yards, 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and he has paired that with 376 yards rushing and seven scores as a runner. He has been an incredibly productive quarterback, and he has the chance to add to those numbers against a very poor Buccaneers pass defense on Saturday.
The Buccaneers have given up 29 scores through the air which are sixth-most in the NFL. The Buccaneers have given up 52 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are ninth-most in the NFL. The Buccaneers have also given up 14 passing plays of 40-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. It is easy to see a path for GPP success for Watson and company in this matchup.
The Buccaneers pass defense has faced significant volume to date, defending 41.5 passes per game, and no team has defended more passes on a per-game basis. The Buccaneers run defense is stout, and it is acting as a funnel to the passing game. Watson should be very productive in this contest, as he will be busy.
Hopkins is the first option in the Texans passing attack. He has 37 targets in the past four games, catching 24 passes for 397 yards and three scores over that span. Hopkins is capable of winning at the line of scrimmage with his combination of precise footwork and quickness, and he dominates with the ball in the air. He is unstoppable at times, and the script is incredibly favorable for him in this game.
Hopkins is questionable with an illness as of this writing, but he is expected to play. Monitor his status and make sure he practices this week. Hopkins is an excellent play in this contest, and he and Watson make a superb stack for GPP play in Week 16.
Pivot: Wide receiver Kenny Stills ($5,500 at FanDuel and $4,400 at DraftKings) scored twice on three targets last week, and he is in a prime spot here if Fuller misses the game. He is priced reasonably, and he can get to GPP value in this contest.
Wide receiver Will Fuller ($6,100 at FanDuel and $5,900 at DraftKings) is an explosive weapon, capable of scoring in a flash. He seems to be the engine that makes the offense go, and when looking at his price, you can see a definitive path to GPP value for Fuller in this contest. Note that he is questionable with a hamstring injury he has been dealing with for a few weeks, and you want to make sure he is safe to play Saturday. He missed practice Wednesday, but that is being called “maintenance", and that there was no setback last week. He is an intriguing GPP option in Week 16.
FanDuel: Rivers ($7,500) + Allen ($6,700) = $14,200
DraftKings: Rivers ($5,700) + Allen ($6,300) = $12,000
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 27 ranked pass defense allowing 262.4 yards per game
Game Total - 46
Implied Totals - Chargers at 26 points and Raiders at 20 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
The Los Angeles Chargers are at home versus the Oakland Raiders for a Week 16 AFC West contest, and they are a 6.5-point home favorite in this matchup. The implied number for the Chargers has them nearing four scores (26), and there should be opportunities for them in this contest as the Raiders are underperforming against the pass.
Rivers has had a very up and down season in 2019, turning the ball over at very inopportune moments, and very regularly. He has thrown for 4055 yards and has paired that with 21 touchdown passes, but he has also thrown 18 interceptions, some of them coming late in games and the red zone. He has underperformed this year, but he has a chance to go off in Week 16.
The Raiders have given up 32 scores through the air which are third-most in the NFL. They have yielded an 8.5-yard average which is the highest average allowed league-wide. They have given up 66 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are most in the NFL. The Raiders have also surrendered 16 passing plays of 40-plus yards, and no team in the league has surrendered more of these types of plays.
The Raiders are struggling to bring pressure on the quarterback, and have only registered 29 sacks in 2019. Only seven teams in the NFL have fewer sacks to this point of the season, and that means Rivers will have a touch more time in the pocket to allow routes to develop. That extra time gives him an edge, and he might exploit this matchup in a big way on Sunday.
Allen is the first option in the Chargers passing attack, and he has seen 34 targets over the past four games. He has caught 28 passes for 321 yards, and he has scored two touchdowns over that span. Given the matchup, it is easy to see that Rivers and Allen is an excellent stack for GPP play this week.
Pivot: Wide receiver Mike Williams ($6,500 at FanDuel and $5,000 at DraftKings) is incredible with the ball in the air, and that makes him a fantastic red-zone weapon, but he has had a very strange year. Williams had not scored a touchdown through the season’s first 12 weeks, but he has scored in back-to-back contests, and he comes into this game on a bit of a hot streak.
He has an opportunity to carve up the Raiders secondary on Sunday, and that makes him an interesting GPP play in Week 16. Note that Williams is questionable with a knee injury, and you want to see him log a full practice before choosing to roster him.
Tight end Hunter Henry ($6,100 at FanDuel and $4,700 at DraftKings) has been somewhat quiet of late, but this matchup screams positivity. He should be active in this matchup, and that makes him an attractive GPP play in Week 16.
HIGH-RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Prescott ($8,000) + Cooper ($7,700) = $15,700
DraftKings: Prescott ($6,400) + Cooper ($6,700) = $13,100
Facing the No. 20 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 18 ranked pass defense allowing 238.8 yards per game
Game Total - 46.5
Implied Totals - Cowboys at 21.5 points and Eagles at 25 points
Game Line - Dallas Cowboys +3
The Dallas Cowboys are on the road this weekend as they face the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday for a very pivotal Week 16 NFC East matchup. The Cowboys are expected to go over three touchdowns in the game (21.5), but I think we will see the Cowboys go over that total fairly easily against a defense surrendering plenty of big plays. If the Cowboys can go over their implied number, then they bring value as they will outperform their price.
Prescott has played extremely well in 2019, throwing for 4334 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions to go with 235 yards and three scores as a runner. His production has dipped of late, but the Eagles are vulnerable to the pass, and Prescott could have a massive game in Week 16.
The Eagles have given up 26 scores through the air which are seventh-most in the NFL. The Eagles have also given up 14 passing plays of 40-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. They are getting beat via the big play, and that is where this stack can pay off. It is easy to see a path for GPP success for Prescott and company in this matchup.
Cooper is the first option in the Cowboys passing attack. He has 23 targets in the past four games, catching 15 passes for 187 yards and one score over that span. Cooper brings excellent size to the table and is an excellent route runner. He is capable of creating separation early in his routes, but he also wins down the field with his frame.
Cooper can exploit this matchup with vertical plays this week, and he is an excellent play in this contest. Prescott and Cooper make a superb stack for GPP play in Week 16.
There is risk here as Prescott is dealing with a shoulder injury, and he was limited in practice on Wednesday. Adding to that risk is the low implied total and the possibility that the Cowboys might protect Prescott with the rushing attack in this game, while also reducing the number of possessions they give to the Eagles.
However, the Cowboys might be behind and chasing in this game, and that means opening up the offense and taking shots down the field where the Eagles can be had. While risky, this stack can pay off in a big way in this matchup.
Pivot: Wide receiver Michael Gallup ($6,500 at FanDuel and $5,500 at DraftKings) is a secondary option for the Cowboys, but he does see enough volume to warrant consideration in this matchup. He has 26 targets in the past four games, catching 14 passes for 233 yards over that span.
Tight end Jason Witten ($5,800 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings) is an intriguing GPP play in this crucial matchup in Week 16. He is seeing red-zone volume and can get to GPP value if he can get into the end zone on Sunday.
FanDuel: Winston ($8,400) + Godwin ($8,400) = $16,800
DraftKings: Winston ($6,900) + Godwin ($7,400) = $14,300
Facing the No. 26 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 28 ranked pass defense allowing 266.1 yards per game
Game Total - 49.5
Implied Totals - Buccaneers at 23 points and Texans at 26.5 points
Game Line - Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at home versus the Houston Texans for a Week 16 matchup, and they are a 3.5-point home underdog in this matchup. The Buccaneers implied number is 23 points, but the Texans are underperforming versus the pass, and it is not hard to see Winston and the Buccaneers passing attack going over that number in this matchup.
To say that Winston has been up and down in 2019 would be a dramatic understatement. He has been unstoppable at times, and he has looked awful as well. The numbers bear that out as he has thrown for 30 touchdowns, and he has thrown for a whopping 24 interceptions in the 14 games he has played. Winston has thrown for 4573 yards, and he has rushed for 229 yards and a score as well.
The Texans have given up 30 scores through the air which are fourth-most in the NFL. They have given up 51 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are tenth-most in the NFL. They have also given up 10 passing plays of 40-plus yards which are eighth-most in the NFL.
Also, the Texans are unable to generate much pressure on the opposing quarterbacks as they have only registered 28 sacks to date. Only six teams in the NFL have generated fewer sacks in 2019, and that means Winston will have a little time to get comfortable in the pocket.
The script is extremely positive for the Buccaneers passing game, and it is hard to see the Texans doing much to prevent a big game from the Buccaneers and their passing attack. If the Texans offense can push the Buccaneers to keep their offense opened up, it means even more positive things from the Buccaneers offense in Week 16.
The Buccaneers lost receiver Mike Evans to a hamstring injury in Week 14, and he is out for the rest of the season. That leaves Godwin as the first option in the Buccaneers passing attack, and he is an incredibly dangerous pass catcher.
Godwin has 31 targets in the past four games, and he has 23 catches for 446 yards and two scores over that span. There is a definitive path to GPP success for Godwin against the Texans, and he and Winston make a fantastic stack for GPP play in Week 16.
Now to the risk with this stack. Winston is dealing with a fractured thumb in his throwing hand, and there is always a risk of aggravation. Adding to that is that Godwin is questionable with a hamstring injury, and he has not practiced yet this week. This stack is incredibly risky due to the injuries involved, but Godwin’s is much more significant as his absence likely lowers the upside of the entire passing game.
As always, monitor the practice reports and make sure that Godwin is cleared to play in this game. It may be wise to pivot away from the Buccaneers entirely if Godwin is unable to play, but there will be clear upside for the receivers that will play if Godwin is out.
Pivot: Wide receiver Breshad Perriman ($7,400 at FanDuel and $6,000 at DraftKings) had an outstanding performance last week filling in for Evans, scoring three touchdowns against the woeful Lions. He has scored in each of the Buccaneers two games while stepping up and filling in for Evans, and he will have every opportunity to add to those numbers in Week 16.
Tight end Cameron Brate ($5,000 at FanDuel and $3,500 at DraftKings) is an intriguing red-zone weapon for the Buccaneers, and he may be forced to take on a more significant role in this matchup. He is an interesting GPP option in Week 16.
Tight end O.J. Howard ($5,500 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings) is an incredibly versatile weapon as he is athletic and can exploit coverage because he is too fast for linebackers, and he is too big for defensive backs. What matters is how much volume he will see, and whether his role gets expanded with the attrition the Buccaneers face. He has outstanding upside and is an excellent GPP option in Week 16.
RB/DST Stacks
Mark Ingram + Ravens Defense
FanDuel: Mack ($7,600) + Colts ($4,500) = $12,100
DraftKings: Mack ($6,800) + Colts ($4,000) = $10,800
Facing the No. 28 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 27 ranked run defense allowing 135.2 yards per game
Game Total - 48
Implied Totals - Ravens at 29 points and Browns at 19 points
Game Line - Baltimore Ravens -10
The Baltimore Ravens are on the road versus the Cleveland Browns on Sunday for a Week 16 AFC North matchup. The Ravens are a 10-point road favorite, and they should be able to take advantage of the Browns defense via the run on Sunday. The game script has the Ravens up easily, and running the ball to shorten the game, and Ingram has an opportunity to have a monster game against the Browns on Sunday.
The Browns have allowed 15 scores in the ground which are fifth-most in the NFL. The Browns have yielded a 4.9-yard average which is the fourth-highest average allowed in the NFL. The Browns have also given up 10 runs of 20-plus yards which are eighth-most in the NFL.
Teams are getting to the Browns run defense through volume as they have defended 27.4 runs per game, and only eight teams in the NFL defend more runs on a per-game basis in 2019. It is safe to assume that Ingram will see the kind of volume that makes him an incredibly intriguing GPP play on Sunday.
The Ravens defense will have opportunities to make fantasy-relevant plays in this game via sacks and turnovers. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 17 interceptions to this point in the 2019 season, and the game script has Mayfield dropping back and throwing plenty in this contest.
It is easy to see a path to GPP value for the Ravens defense this week as they will have chances to make plays in this game. Both sides of this stack have an opportunity to produce at a high level this week, and it makes for a high-end stack for GPP play in Week 16.
Marlon Mack + Colts Defense
FanDuel: Mack ($7,300) + Colts ($4,800) = $12,100
DraftKings: Mack ($6,200) + Colts ($3,300) = $9,500
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 30 ranked run defense allowing 140.2 yards per game
Game Total - 46
Implied Totals - Colts at 26 points and Panthers at 20 points
Game Line - Indianapolis Colts -6.5
The Indianapolis Colts are at home versus the Carolina Panthers on Sunday for a Week 16 matchup. The Colts are a 6.5-point road favorite, and their ground game should feature heavily in this contest as they are favored by almost a touchdown. If the running game is heavily involved and they can get to their implied number, then Mack will be extremely productive in this contest.
The Panthers have allowed 26 scores in the ground which are most in the NFL. The Panthers have yielded a 5.2-yard average which is the highest average allowed in the NFL. The Panthers have also given up 20 runs of 20-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. Also, the Panthers have surrendered five running plays of 40-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL.
Interestingly, the Panthers are not defending a significant amount of run-game volume as they have defended 27.0 running plays per game. Eleven teams across the league have defended more runs on a per-game basis than the Panthers, yet they give up some of the highest production to running backs in the NFL.
The game script has the Colts up and utilizing the ground game in this contest to run out the clock, and that means Mack should have a chance to put up tremendous numbers in Week 16. Mack should be a GPP building block against the Panthers as he has an opportunity to go off on Sunday.
The Panthers have given up 51 sacks in 2019, and only one team league-wide has allowed more. The Panthers are starting rookie quarterback Will Grier this week, and the Colts should be able to take advantage of him via pressure which can lead to turnovers. The Colts defense will have opportunities to make plays that produce points in this matchup.
Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive, and it makes for an excellent stack for GPP play in Week 16.
