Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Rodgers ($8,300) + Adams ($8,400) = $16,700
DraftKings: Rodgers ($6,900) + Adams ($8,000) = $14,900
Facing the No. 29 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 282.6 yards per game
Game Total - 43
Implied Totals - Packers at 28 points and Lions at 15 points
Game Line - Green Bay Packers -12.5
The Green Bay Packers are on the road versus the Detroit Lions on Sunday for a Week 17 NFC North matchup. The Packers implied number has them at four touchdowns (28), and it is not out of line to see them going over that number in this matchup as the Lions have been the gift that keeps giving in 2019. The Packers offensive weapons will bring value as they will outperform their price if they can get over their implied number.
The Packers offense has been underperforming for a few weeks, but as mentioned above, the Lions might be a balm for the Packers offensive woes. The Lions have been obliterated all year, and even more of late as injuries have taken their toll.
Rodgers has thrown for 3679 yards, 24 scores, and three interceptions while accumulating 182 rushing yards and one score through 15 games. He will add to those numbers against the Lions as he has a chance to post outstanding numbers in Week 17.
The Lions have given up 31 scores through the air which are fourth-most in the NFL. They are surrendering a 7.9-yard average which is seventh-highest in the NFL. The Lions have given up 67 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. The Lions have also yielded 10 passing plays of 40-plus yards, and only seven teams in the NFL have allowed more of these big plays.
The Lions pass defense has faced significant volume to date, defending 37.1 passes per game. Only five teams in the NFL have defended more passes on a per-game basis. The Lions offense is struggling without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford, and they have a hard time running the football, so they are giving a lot of possessions to the opposition. Rodgers will light up the porous Lions pass defense if the Packers choose the throw the ball.
The Lions also struggle to generate much pressure on the quarterback, registering only 27 sacks in 2019 which is fourth-fewest in the NFL. Rodgers will have time in the pocket to allow routes to develop, and he should be able to produce at a very high level in Week 17.
Adams is the first option for the Packers passing attack, and he has 45 targets in the past four games, catching 30 passes for 324 yards while scoring three times over that span. He went off last week for 13 catches and 116 yards, and Rodgers is looking for him. Rodgers and Adams make an intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 16.
Pivot: Wide receiver Allen Lazard ($5,400 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings) has earned Rodgers’ trust and is the second option for the Packers, and that makes him an extremely attractive GPP option versus the Lions. They cannot stack up to reliable second-tier weapons, and they have been torched all year to receivers not covered by star cornerback Darius Slay. Lazard should be a building-block option for GPP play in Week 17.
Wide receiver Geronimo Allison ($4,600 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) is worth a flier because of what is mentioned for Lazard. Targeting second-tier receivers versus the Lions has been a strong GPP play all year.
Tight end Jimmy Graham ($5,000 at FanDuel and $3,300 at DraftKings) has been quiet of late, seeing only 11 targets in the past four games, but he has a path to GPP value when considering matchup and price in Week 17.
FanDuel: Ryan ($7,800) + Jones ($8,500) = $16,300
DraftKings: Ryan ($6,500) + Jones ($8,500) = $15,000
Facing the No. 12 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 29 ranked pass defense allowing 269.1 yards per game
Game Total - 48.5
Implied Totals - Falcons at 24 points and Buccaneers at 25 points
Game Line - Atlanta Falcons +1
The Atlanta Falcons are on the road this weekend as they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday for a Week 17 NFC South matchup, and the Falcons are expected to go over three touchdowns in the game (24). However, when considering the ability for both offenses to score and make big plays in the passing game, and looking at how each team defends, it is reasonable that we will see the Falcons go over their implied number with both teams scoring points easily. That means value for all of the skill position players in this matchup.
Ryan has played well in 2019, producing at a very high level to this date. He has thrown for 4153 yards, 25 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and he has paired that with 147 yards rushing and one score as a runner. Ryan is a productive quarterback, and he has the chance to add to those numbers against a very poor Buccaneers pass defense on Sunday.
The Buccaneers have given up 29 scores through the air which are seventh-most in the NFL. The Buccaneers have given up 54 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are tenth-most in the NFL. The Buccaneers have also given up 14 passing plays of 40-plus yards which are third-most in the NFL.
The Buccaneers pass defense has faced significant volume to date, defending 40.9 passes per game, and no team has defended more passes on a per-game basis. The Buccaneers run defense is stout, and it is acting as a funnel to the passing game. Ryan should be very productive in this contest, as he will be busy.
Jones is the first option in the Falcons passing attack. He has 53 targets in the past four games, catching 33 passes for 434 yards and two scores over that span. Jones is unstoppable at times, and the script is incredibly favorable for him in this game.
Jones is questionable with a knee injury as of this writing. Monitor his status and make sure he practices this week. Jones is an excellent play in this contest, and he and Ryan make a superb stack for GPP play in Week 17 as long as Jones is cleared to play.
Pivot: Wide receiver Russell Gage ($5,300 at FanDuel and $4,400 at DraftKings) has filled in admirably with receiver Calving Ridley injured, and he warrants consideration in this matchup as he should see a good dose of targets against the Buccaneers.
Tight end Austin Hooper ($6,000 at FanDuel and $5,800 at DraftKings) has had a fantastic season, but his momentum was interrupted with an injury that forced him out of three games. He returned in Week 14, and looked a touch off, but looked fantastic last week versus Jacksonville. He has excellent upside and a definitive path to GPP value in this matchup.
FanDuel: Brady ($7,600) + Edelman ($7,500) = $15,100
DraftKings: Brady ($6,000) + Edelman ($7,300) = $13,300
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 28 ranked pass defense allowing 265.4 yards per game
Game Total - 44.5
Implied Totals - Patriots at 30 points and Dolphins at 14.5 points
Game Line - New England Patriots -15.5
The New England Patriots are at home versus the Miami Dolphins for a Week 17 AFC East contest, and they are a 15.5-point home favorite in this matchup. The implied number for the Patriots has them over four scores (30), and there should be opportunities for them in this contest as the Dolphins are underperforming against the pass.
Brady has had a strange season as the Patriots passing attack has looked out of sorts all year, and he has not been productive like he has been in the past. He has thrown for 3836 yards and has paired that with 22 touchdown passes, seven interceptions, and three rushing touchdowns. He has underperformed this year, but he has a chance to go off in Week 17.
The Dolphins have given up 37 scores through the air which are most in the NFL. They have yielded an 8.0-yard average which is the fourth-highest average allowed league-wide. They have given up 65 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are fourth-most in the NFL. The Dolphins are susceptible, and Brady might use this matchup to get the offense in rhythm heading into the playoffs.
The Dolphins are struggling to bring pressure on the quarterback, and have only registered 22 sacks in 2019. No team in the NFL has fewer sacks to this point of the season, and that means Brady will have a touch more time in the pocket to allow routes to develop. Pressure has been a problem for the Patriots offense in 2019, and the extra time gives Brady an edge, and he can exploit this matchup in a big way on Sunday.
Edelman is the first option in the Patriots passing attack, and he has seen 34 targets over the past four games. He has caught 21 passes for 282 yards, and he has scored two touchdowns over that span. Given the matchup, it is easy to see that Brady and Edelman is an excellent stack for GPP play this week.
Note that Edelman is questionable with knee and shoulder ailments, and you need to check his status throughout the rest of the week. You want to see him practice this week before choosing to roster him, but if he can play, he can pay off in a big way.
Pivot: Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu ($5,300 at FanDuel and $4,100 at DraftKings), NKeal Harry ($5,400 at FanDuel and $4,200 at DraftKings), and Jakobi Meyers ($5,100 at FanDuel and $3,300 at DraftKings) are all reasonable options in this matchup, and all take on a more prominent role if Edelman misses the game. As is, they can all get to value at their price in this matchup and all warrant consideration.
FanDuel: Tannehill ($7,900) + Brown ($7,200) = $15,100
DraftKings: Tannehill ($6,800) + Brown ($7,000) = $13,800
Facing the No. 25 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 30 ranked pass defense allowing 270.3 yards per game
Game Total - 45.5
Implied Totals - Titans at 24.5 points and Texans at 21 points
Game Line - Tennessee Titans -3.5
The Tennessee Titans are on the road this weekend as they face the Houston Texans on Sunday for a Week 17 AFC South matchup. The Titans are expected to go over three touchdowns in the game (24.5), but there is a strong possibility they go over that number in this matchup. If the Titans can go over their implied number, then they bring value as they will outperform their price.
Tannehill has played exceptionally well in 2019 after taking the starting job from Marcus Mariota. He has appeared in 10 games, throwing for 2544 yards, 20 touchdowns, and six interceptions to go with 165 yards and four scores as a runner. Tannehill has been incredibly productive for the Titans, and he will have an excellent chance to add to those numbers this week.
The Texans have given up 31 scores through the air which are fourth-most in the NFL. The Texans have yielded 55 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are eighth-most in the NFL. The Texans have also given up 10 passing plays of 40-plus yards which are eighth-most in the NFL.
The Texans are having a hard time getting pressure on the passer, and they have only registered 31 sacks in 2019. Only seven teams in the league have fewer sacks this season, and Tannehill will do well with that extra time in this game. He is mobile and can extend plays with his feet, and he will be more dangerous with more comfortability in the pocket.
Brown has emerged as the first option in the Titans passing attack. He has 26 targets in the past four games, catching 17 passes for 346 yards and three scores over that span. The Titans are also getting him involved as a runner, and he scored on a 49-yard run last week. Brown brings excellent size to the table, and he is capable of creating separation early in his routes, but he also wins down the field with his big body.
Brown can exploit this matchup with vertical plays this week, and he is an excellent play in this contest. Tannehill and Brown make a superb stack for GPP play in Week 17.
Pivot: Wide receiver Tajae Sharpe ($6,500 at FanDuel and $5,500 at DraftKings) makes an intriguing GPP play if wide receiver Corey Davis misses this contest. Davis is dealing with a concussion and is questionable as of this writing. Sharpe stepped in for Davis last week, and he scored twice while catching five passes for 59 yards.
Tight end Jonnu Smith ($5,800 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings) continues to hurt defenses with the big play as he is capable of turning a short pass into a very productive play. He is incredibly athletic, and he has a path to GPP value in Week 17 when considering price and matchup.
Jameis Winston + Breshad Perriman
FanDuel: Winston ($8,100) + Perriman ($7,600) = $15,700
DraftKings: Winston ($6,600) + Perriman ($6,700) = $13,300
Facing the No. 26 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 23 ranked pass defense allowing 248.3 yards per game
Game Total - 48.5
Implied Totals - Buccaneers at 25 points and Falcons at 24 points
Game Line - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at home versus the Atlanta Falcons for a Week 17 NFC South matchup, and they are a one-point home favorite in this matchup. The Buccaneers implied number is 25 points, and it is hard to see their passing attack limited in this matchup. Winston has a chance to end his season on a strong note against the Falcons.
Winston has been up and down in 2019, and that is putting it mildly. He has been unstoppable at times, and he has thrown horrible looking interceptions regularly as well. The numbers bear that out as he has thrown for 31 touchdowns, and he has thrown for an incredible 28 interceptions in the 15 games he has played. Winston has thrown for 4908 yards, and he has rushed for 245 yards and a score as well.
The Falcons have given up 26 scores through the air which are tenth-most in the NFL. They have given up 52 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are eleventh-most in the NFL. They have also given up nine passing plays of 40-plus yards which are eleventh-most in the NFL. These offenses should go up and down the field in this game, and Winston has a chance to put up gaudy numbers in Week 17.
The Falcons are unable to generate much pressure on the opposing quarterbacks as they have only registered 27 sacks to date. Only three teams in the NFL have generated fewer sacks in 2019, and that means Winston will have a little time to get comfortable in the pocket which will allow his receivers to separate from coverage.
The Buccaneers lost receiver Mike Evans to a hamstring injury in Week 14, and he is out for the rest of the season. They also lost star receiver Chris Godwin to an injured hamstring in Week 15, and Perriman has filled in quite admirably.
Perriman has 30 targets in the past four games, and he has 20 catches for 372 yards and four scores over that span. Perriman saw six targets in Week 15 with Evans out, and 12 targets last week with Godwin out. There is a definitive path to GPP success for Perriman against the Falcons, and he and Winston make a strong stack for GPP play in Week 17.
Pivot: Wide receiver Chris Godwin ($7,600 at FanDuel and $7,500 at DraftKings) is questionable with a hamstring injury, and he would be a super-risky play because of the risk of re-injury to his hamstring. However, if he plays, he will see a significant workload and is worth the risk as he can go off in this matchup.
Wide receiver Justin Watson ($6,100 at FanDuel and $4,900 at DraftKings) is worth a shot in GPP play if Godwin misses the game as the Buccaneers throw the ball all over the place, and he can get to value at his price.
Tight end O.J. Howard ($5,500 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings) is seeing more volume as a receiver late in the season. He has 25 targets over the past four games, and he is a dangerous weapon with the ball in his hands as he is incredibly athletic.
RB/DST Stacks
Alvin Kamara + Saints Defense
FanDuel: Kamara ($7,900) + Saints ($4,700) = $12,600
DraftKings: Kamara ($7,800) + Saints ($4,000) = $11,800
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 31 ranked run defense allowing 145.4 yards per game
Game Total - 47
Implied Totals - Saint at 30 points and Panthers at 17 points
Game Line - New Orleans Saints -13
The New Orleans Saints are on the road versus the Carolina Panthers on Sunday for a Week 17 NFC South matchup. The Saints are a 13-point road favorite, and they should be able to take advantage of the struggling Panthers defense via the run on Sunday. The game script has the Saints up easily and running the ball to shorten the game. Kamara has an opportunity to have a monster game against the Panthers on Sunday.
The Panthers have allowed 29 scores in the ground which are most in the NFL. The next closest is 21 touchdowns allowed by the Jacksonville Jaguars, and that speaks to just how much an outlier the Panthers are when allowing scores on the ground. The Panthers have yielded a 5.3-yard average which is the highest average allowed in the NFL.
The Panthers have given up 23 runs of 20-plus yards which are most in the NFL. Also, the Panthers have yielded five runs of 40-plus yards, and only one team in the NFL has allowed more of these kinds of plays to this point of the season.
Teams are getting to the Panthers run defense through volume as they have defended 27.3 runs per game, and only eight teams in the NFL defend more runs on a per-game basis in 2019. The Panthers have given up significant production to the position, and that should continue this week. It is safe to assume that Kamara will see the kind of volume that makes him an incredibly intriguing GPP play on Sunday.
The Saints defense will have opportunities to make fantasy-relevant plays in this game via sacks and turnovers as they are facing rookie Panthers quarterback Will Grier. Grier made his first start last week, and he threw the ball 44 times and was intercepted three times in the game. Also, no team in the NFL has allowed more sacks (56) than the Panthers, so we should see the Saints get pressure on Grier, and that means fantasy production for their defense.
It is easy to see a path to GPP value for the Saints defense this week as they will have chances to make plays in this game. Both sides of this stack have an opportunity to produce at a high level this week, and it makes for a high-end stack for GPP play in Week 17.
Ezekiel Elliott + Cowboys Defense
FanDuel: Elliott ($8,700) + Cowboys ($3,600) = $12,300
DraftKings: Elliott ($8,000) + Cowboys ($3,300) = $11,300
Facing the No. 25 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 29 ranked run defense allowing 141.1 yards per game
Game Total - 44.5
Implied Totals - Cowboys at 28 points and Redskins at 17 points
Game Line - Dallas Cowboys -11
The Dallas Cowboys are at home versus the Washington Redskins on Sunday for a Week 17 NFC East matchup. The Cowboys are an 11-point home favorite, and their ground game should feature heavily in this contest as they are favored by almost two touchdowns. Also, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is injured, and the Cowboys game plan might protect him a touch, and Elliott can be extremely productive in this contest.
The Redskins have allowed 13 scores on the ground and are a middle of the pack defense in this regard. The Redskins have yielded a 4.6-yard average which is the seventh-highest average allowed in the NFL. The Redskins have also given up 14 runs of 20-plus yards which are third-most in the NFL. Also, the Redskins have surrendered four running plays of 40-plus yards which are third-most in the NFL.
The Redskins have defended the second-most running plays on a per-game basis (30.5) through 15 games, and there will be plenty of volume for Elliot in this matchup. The game script has the Cowboys up and utilizing the ground game in this contest to run out the clock, and Elliott has a chance to put up monster numbers in this game.
The Redskins have given up 48 sacks in 2019, and only six teams across the league have allowed more. Veteran quarterback Case Keenum draws the start, and the Cowboys defense will have opportunities to make plays that produce points in this matchup. Keenum will be throwing early and often in this contest, and the Cowboys will have opportunities to pile up points via pressure, sacks, and turnovers.
Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive, and it makes for an excellent stack for GPP play in Week 17.
