Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Tannehill ($7,600) + Brown ($6,200) = $13,800
DraftKings: Tannehill ($6,500) + Brown ($6,000) = $12,500
Facing the No. 27 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 27 ranked pass defense allowing 265.8 yards per game
Game Total - 50
Implied Totals - Titans at 26 points and Texans at 23.5 points
Game Line - Tennessee Titans -2.5
The Tennessee Titans are at home versus the Houston Texans on Sunday for a pivotal Week 15 AFC South matchup. The Titans implied number has them nearing four touchdowns (26), and if they can get over that number this week, their offensive weapons bring value as they will outperform their price. There is a chance that happens as the Texans offense is potent, and they can put points on the board.
Tannehill became the starter for Tennessee in Week 7 when Marcus Mariota was sent to the bench, and he has played exceptionally well since taking over the starting job. He has thrown for 15 touchdowns, 1849 yards, and five interceptions to go along with 141 yards and three touchdowns rushing. He is playing outstanding football, and he has a chance to put up gaudy numbers against the Texans on Sunday.
The Texans have given up 28 scores through the air which are fifth-most in the NFL. They are surrendering a 7.6-yard average which is tenth-highest in the NFL. The Raiders have given up 48 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are ninth-most in the NFL. The Raiders have also yielded nine passing plays of 40-plus yards which are seventh-most in the NFL.
The Texans struggle to generate pressure and have registered 26 sacks in 2019. That is the sixth-fewest number of sacks in the NFL in 2019, and that means Tannehill will have a touch more time in the pocket, and that will help their receivers to uncover and get open in this matchup.
Brown has emerged as the primary option for the Titans passing attack as a rookie, and he is doing it because of his ability to separate at all areas of the field with a combination of precise footwork and great size. Brown is an excellent route runner, and he has shown that he can generate significant yards after the catch.
Brown has 20 targets in the past four games, catching 13 passes for 350 yards while scoring three times over that span. He went off last week, and he has a chance to put up excellent numbers this week as the Texans struggle to defend the pass. He and Tannehill make an intriguing stack for GPP play in Week 15.
Pivot: Wide receiver Corey Davis ($5,000 at FanDuel and $3,800 at DraftKings) has struggled to play a pivotal role in the Titans offense with Tannehill at quarterback, but the offense is making big plays, and there is a question requiring an answer in regards to Davis. Is it a matter of time before he goes off? He is incredibly athletic and is still a competent player, but he has not made much in the way of big plays in this offense recently. He makes an interesting pivot away from Brown, who may be highly owned, but requires a very risky mentality if you are interested in rostering him.
Tight end Jonnu Smith ($4,900 at FanDuel and $3,500 at DraftKings) scored a touchdown last week while seeing four targets. He needs to get into the end zone to justify his price, but he should have opportunities in this matchup.
Baker Mayfield + Jarvis Landry
FanDuel: Mayfield ($7,700) + Landry ($7,400) = $15,100
DraftKings: Mayfield ($6,400) + Landry ($6,700) = $13,100
Facing the No. 29 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 32 ranked pass defense allowing 294.2 yards per game
Game Total - 48
Implied Totals - Browns at 25.5 points and Cardinals at 22.5 points
Game Line - Cleveland Browns -3
The Cleveland Browns are on the road this weekend as they face the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday for a Week 15 matchup. The Browns are expected to go over three touchdowns in the game (25.5), but I think we will see the Browns go over that total fairly easily against one of the league’s worst pass defenses in this matchup. If the Browns can go over their implied number, then they bring value as they will outperform their price.
Mayfield started the season poorly in 2019, performing inconsistently and struggling to get the passing offense into the end zone through the first half of the season. Mayfield threw for seven touchdowns and 12 interceptions through the first half of the season this year. He has thrown for eight touchdowns and four interceptions over the last four games, and he has also scored two touchdowns as a runner over that span.
The Cardinals have given up 32 scores through the air which are most in the NFL. They are surrendering an 8.4-yard average which is second-highest in the NFL. The Cardinals have given up 61 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. It is easy to see a path for GPP success for Mayfield and company in this matchup.
The Cardinals pass defense has faced significant volume to date, defending 37.1 passes per game. Only six teams in the NFL have defended more passes on a per-game basis. Mayfield should be productive in this contest as he will be busy.
Landry has emerged as the first option in the Browns passing attack. He has 38 targets in the past four games, catching 24 passes for 343 yards and three scores over that span. Landry is capable of winning at the line of scrimmage with his combination of precise footwork and quickness. Landry is an excellent play in this contest, and he and Mayfield make a superb stack for GPP play in Week 15.
Pivot: Wide receiver Odell Beckham ($7,200 at FanDuel and $6,400 at DraftKings) has been banged up with a groin injury, and his injury has hurt his movement skills. He has not looked like himself and is struggling to change direction on the field, and he is not producing at the levels expected of him. Rostering Beckham requires an element of risk-taking, but he can be a valuable GPP play in this matchup.
Tight end David Njoku ($5,500 at FanDuel and $4,200 at DraftKings) returned to action last week and was targeted three times, catching one pass for four yards. He appears here because the tight end has destroyed the Cardinals in 2019 on a week-to-week basis. They cannot defend the tight end, and Njoku has an opportunity to step into a great position this week. While the matchup screams for a massive game from Njoku, the reality is Njoku is currently dealing with a knee injury and should not be considered unless he practices this week and is ready to play on Sunday.
HIGH-RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Winston ($8,200) + Godwin ($8,400) = $16,600
DraftKings: Winston ($6,900) + Godwin ($7,700) = $14,600
Facing the No. 25 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 30 ranked pass defense allowing 276.5 yards per game
Game Total - 47.5
Implied Totals - Buccaneers at 26 points and Dolphins at 22 points
Game Line - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on the road versus the Detroit Lions for a Week 15 NFC matchup, and they are a four-point road favorite in this matchup. The Lions are very banged up, and they are having trouble defending the pass. The Buccaneers implied number is 26 points, and it is not hard to see Winston and the Buccaneers passing attack getting them over that number in this matchup.
Winston’s play has been remarkable in 2019. He has been remarkably good at times, and he has been awful at times. The numbers bear that out as he has thrown for 26 touchdowns, and he has thrown for a staggering 23 interceptions in the 13 games he has played. Winston has thrown for 4115 yards, and he has rushed for 225 yards and a score as well.
The Lions have given up 26 scores through the air which are sixth-most in the NFL. They allow a 7.8-yard average which is ninth-highest in the NFL. They have given up 56 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are third-most in the NFL. They have also given up nine passing plays of 40-plus yards which are eighth-most in the NFL.
Also, the Lions are unable to generate much pressure on the opposing quarterbacks as they have only registered 25 sacks to date. Only four teams in the NFL have generated fewer sacks in 2019, and that means Winston will not see a substantial amount of pressure in this contest. That is excellent news for the Buccaneers passing game, and it is hard to see the Lions doing much to prevent a big game from the Buccaneers and their passing attack.
The Buccaneers lost receiver Mike Evans to a hamstring injury last week, and he is reportedly out for multiple games. That leaves Godwin as the first option in an incredibly potent passing attack, and he could post gigantic numbers in Week 15.
Godwin has 29 targets in the past four games, but it is an almost certainty that we see his target share increase with Evans out, and that gives him incredible upside going forward. He has 21 catches for 372 yards and three scores over that span. There is a definitive path to GPP success for Godwin against the Lions, and he and Winston are a fantastic stack for GPP play in Week 15.
Note that Winston is questionable with a thumb injury, but is reportedly going to play on Sunday. There is risk with any injury as it can lead to underperformance or aggravation, and you need to be comfortable with that information before choosing to roster Winston in Week 15.
Pivot: Wide receiver Breshad Perriman ($6,400 at FanDuel and $4,500 at DraftKings) is a phenomenal GPP option in this matchup as the Lions do not have the personnel to handle secondary receivers. The Lions lock up No. 1 receivers with star cornerback Darius Slay, but there is not much to see after that. They have given up production to second-tier options all year, and Perriman can light up this defense in Week 15. He should become the No. 2 wide receiver with Evans out, and he has a chance to shine this week.
Wide receiver Justin Watson ($4,500 at FanDuel and $3,700 at DraftKings) appears here for the same reason that Perriman does, and that is because the Lions struggle to defend receivers not being covered by Slay. He has a chance to be productive in this matchup, and he comes at a great price.
Tight end Cameron Brate ($5,200 at FanDuel and $3,400 at DraftKings) has been up and down in 2019, and there has been volatility in his usage. He is worth a shot in this high-scoring matchup as he has a chance to get into the end zone in this contest.
Tight end O.J. Howard ($5,700 at FanDuel and $3,500 at DraftKings) is also worthy of consideration as he can exploit the coverage the Lions will throw at him. He is incredibly athletic, and he can beat the Lions defense all over the field.
FanDuel: Blough ($7,300) + Golladay ($7,900) = $15,200
DraftKings: Blough ($5,300) + Golladay ($7,200) = $12,500
Facing the No. 19 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 278.8 yards per game
Game Total - 47.5
Implied Totals - Lions at 22 points and Buccaneers at 26 points
Game Line - Detroit Lions +4
The Detroit Lions are at home versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a Week 15 NFC contest, and they are a four-point home underdog in this matchup. The implied number for the Lions has them over three scores (22), and there should be opportunities for them in this contest as the Buccaneers are underperforming against the pass, and there should be an extra possession or two for the Lions in this game.
The pace at which this game will be played will be interesting as both teams struggle to defend the pass, and there should be no shortage of points in this game. Both teams give up significant yardage to the pass, and these defenses have given up a combined 55 touchdowns through the air to date.
The risk with this stack is directly involved in the pace the Lions choose this week. They may want to take the air out of the ball and activate their ground game to reduce the number of possessions they give the Buccaneers. Understand the Lions might try to get running back Bo Scarborough involved, and that might limit the ceiling of this stack, but in the end, I think Blough will need to be active here.
Blough started in Week 13 after backup quarterback Jeff Driskel injured his hamstring and was placed in injured reserve. He is a gamer, willing to put the ball into a place that gives his receiver a chance to win via the contested catch, but there is an element of risk in making these types of throws. He looks like a gunslinger wanting to fit the ball into tight windows, but there are times he does not have the arm to do that.
Still, he has played admirably in his two starts, throwing for 485 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. He should be able to post good numbers in this matchup, and he will have plenty of opportunities to make plays against an underperforming Buccaneers pass defense.
The Buccaneers have given up 29 scores through the air which are fourth-most in the NFL. They have given up 49 passing plays of 20-plus yards which are seventh-most in the NFL. They have also surrendered 12 passing plays of 40-plus yards, and only four teams league-wide have surrendered more of these types of plays.
Golladay leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 10 scores, and he has had a fantastic season playing with multiple quarterbacks. Golladay is the first option in the Lions passing attack, and he has bolstered that position with receiver Marvin Jones going to injured reserve this week. He should see more targets over the last three games of the season.
Golladay has seen 22 targets over the past four games. He has caught 15 passes for 311 yards, and he has scored two touchdowns over that span. Given the matchup, it is easy to see that Blough and Golladay are an excellent stack for GPP play this week.
Pivot: Wide receiver Danny Amendola ($5,400 at FanDuel and $4,100 at DraftKings) steps into a more significant role with Jones out, and he has a chance to get to GPP value this week as his price is too low given his role, and the matchup against the Buccaneers with the Lions likely playing catch up in this game.
RB/DST Stacks
Sony Michel + Patriots Defense
FanDuel: Michel ($6,100) + Patriots ($5,000) = $11,100
DraftKings: Michel ($5,100) + Patriots ($4,000) = $9,100
Facing the No. 28 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 32 ranked run defense allowing 156.7 yards per game
Game Total - 40.5
Implied Totals - Patriots at 24.5 points and Bengals at 16 points
Game Line - New England Patriots -8.5
The New England Patriots are on the road versus the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday for a Week 15 matchup. The Patriots are an 8.5-point road favorite, and they should be able to take advantage of the Bengals defense via the run on Sunday. The Patriots are struggling to find consistency with their passing attack, and Michel could post big numbers in this contest as the game script is incredibly favorable for the Patriots ground game.
The Bengals have allowed 15 scores in the ground which are third-most in the NFL. The Bengals have yielded a 4.9-yard average which is the fourth-highest average allowed in the NFL. The Bengals have also given up 21 runs of 20-plus yards which are most in the NFL.
Teams are getting to the Bengals run defense through volume as they have defended 32.2 runs per game, and no team in the NFL has defended more runs in 2019. It is safe to assume that Michel will see the kind of volume that makes him an incredibly intriguing GPP play on Sunday.
The Patriots can adjust their scheme to generate pressure, and they have registered 41 sacks in 2019 which are sixth-most in the NFL. They go against an offensive line giving up 43 sacks to date, and only six teams in the NFL have allowed more sacks in 2019.
It is easy to see a path to GPP value for the Patriots defense this week as they will get pressure which can produce sacks and turnovers. The Patriots defense has consistently shown their ability to produce scores off of turnovers this season, and they will have opportunities there this week.
Both sides of this stack have a chance to produce at a high level this week, and it makes for a high-end stack for GPP play in Week 15.
Chris Carson + Seahawks Defense
FanDuel: Carson ($7,400) + Seahawks ($4,700) = $12,100
DraftKings: Carson ($7,500) + Seahawks ($3,700) = $11,200
Facing the No. 32 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 29 ranked run defense allowing 139.2 yards per game
Game Total - 48.5
Implied Totals - Seahawks at 27 points and Panthers at 21 points
Game Line - Seattle Seahawks -6
The Seattle Seahawks are on the road versus the Carolina Panthers on Sunday for a Week 14 NFC matchup. The Seahawks are a six-point road favorite, and their ground game should feature heavily in this contest as they are favored by almost a touchdown.
The Panthers have allowed 24 scores in the ground which are most in the NFL. The Panthers have yielded a 5.3-yard average which is the highest average allowed in the NFL. The Panthers have also given up 19 runs of 20-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL. Also, the Panthers have surrendered five running plays of 40-plus yards which are second-most in the NFL.
Interestingly, the Panthers are not defending a significant amount of run-game volume as they have defended 26.5 runs per game. Thirteen teams across the league have defended more runs on a per-game basis than the Panthers, yet they give up some of the highest production to running backs in the NFL.
If we project a heavy workload for Carson in this matchup, then it is not difficult to see the gaudy numbers that he might produce against the Panthers. The game script has the Seahawks up in this game, and Carson should feature heavily in this matchup as they utilize the ground game late in this contest. Carson could post gigantic numbers this week and is a player to build rosters around in Week 15.
The Panthers have given up 50 sacks in 2019, and only one team league-wide has allowed more. Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen is turning the ball over at a very high rate, and the Seahawks defense will have opportunities to make plays that produce points in this matchup. The Seahawks defense has a path to GPP value as they should be able to amass production through sacks and turnovers, and if they can get a defensive score, they will be a tremendous value this week.
Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive, and it makes for an excellent stack for GPP play in Week 15.
Miles Sanders + Eagles Defense
FanDuel: Sanders ($6,800) + Eagles ($4,900) = $11,700
DraftKings: Sanders ($5,900) + Eagles ($3,400) = $9,300
Facing the No. 24 ranked DVOA rush defense and the No. 27 ranked run defense allowing 134.8 yards per game
Game Total - 40.5
Implied Totals - Eagles at 24 points and Redskins at 16.5 points
Game Line - Philadelphia Eagles -7
The Philadelphia Eagles are on the road versus the Washington Redskins on Sunday for a Week 15 NFC East matchup. The Eagles are a seven-point road favorite, and their ground game should feature heavily in this contest as the Redskins run defense has been a liability throughout the 2019 season. The game script is also very positive for Sanders and the Eagles ground game.
The Redskins are a middle of the pack run defense, but this is a volume-dependent play, and if Sanders can get the kind of volume expected, then he can be an excellent GPP play in Week 15. Sanders can get it done as a runner and as a receiver, and that dual-threat ability makes him very intriguing this week.
The Redskins have allowed 11 scores in the ground, and only 11 teams in the NFL allow more. The Redskins have also given up 10 runs of 20-plus yards which are fourth-most in the NFL, and they have surrendered two runs of 40-plus yards which are sixth-most in the league.
The Eagles have done a good job of getting pressure on the quarterback in 2019, registering 36 sacks to date, and only 12 teams have more. They draw a Redskins offense with a rookie quarterback at the helm that has surrendered 44 sacks to date, and only six teams across the league have allowed more. They will get pressure on quarterback Dwayne Haskins, and it is not difficult to see the Eagles defense making a big play or two in this contest.
Again, this stack is dependent on volume, but if Sanders can get things going as a runner and as a receiver, then he can get to GPP value. The Eagles defense is intriguing and they have a definitive path to GPP value in Week 15. This is an exciting stack for GPP play this week.
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