This is an interesting week from an ownership perspective. As of Thursday night, there isn’t really a crazy amount of chalk developing on either Fanduel or Draftkings. Of course, that could change over the next couple of days due to a significant injury or two but as of now the ownership is very well spread out. I think that is important because it allows you to roster some of the better plays in your lineup without being afraid of being too chalky. For example, most weeks I have only recommended rostering one of the chalkiest players from the four main positions in your lineups. If you were to go any higher you would need some pretty contrarian picks to go with them. However, if the 2nd to 10th most owned guys don’t necessarily offer a big discount in terms of ownership then you are freer to go with the better values. Hopefully, the sites will do a bit better pricing like this slate going forward so teams aren’t so concentrated that we see massive ties at the top of the leaderboards like we did last week.
How to play the chalk
One of the biggest decisions each week is how to handle the chalk on the slate. The chalkiest players are typically the ‘best’ plays on the slate if you are trying to maximize your total points produced. However, if you are looking to win a big tournament you can gain a lot of ground on your competition if you choose a player that outperforms there. If that player is in a lot of lineups you can pass a lot at one time. Balancing scoring the most points and playing against your competition is the toughest part of DFS. In this section, we talk about how to handle the toughest decision of the week. What to do with the chalk:
QB
As stated in the opening the chalk is spread around pretty evenly this week and the quarterback position is no exception. Our normal go-to quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes II have difficult matchups against the Bills and Patriots respectively. That leaves another of our top go-to quarterbacks Deshaun Watson as the top owned QB as of Thursday night. Unfortunately, for Watson, he also gets a tough matchup against the Broncos. In fact, if we compare the Vegas totals for these three games the Texans sit the lowest at 42. Baltimore is the second-lowest at 43.5 and the Chiefs are the highest at 49. Of course, totals don’t tell the whole story as the Texans are the biggest favorite but a high total does help us understand how likely the game is to shoot out.
Watson is my top-ranked value, although not by much, so I think it makes a lot of sense to make him a part of your GPP plans especially if his ownership stays in the low teens. If it starts to creep up to the upper teens then I think you will want to fade him. If I was only playing one lineup, it’s a toss-up if you go with Watson or any of the guys right behind him. My current lean would be to go with someone else like Matt Ryan or Jackson.
RB
Running back looks like it once again belongs to Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey’s performance last week was interesting. He had his worst performance since week 2 with only 44 yards on 14 and 7 catches for 58 yards despite his second-highest target totals of the year at 13. But despite such a disappointing performance and high price McCaffrey was found on both Fanduel’s Sunday Million, as well as Draftking’s Millionaire Maker, winning lineups. Lineups with McCaffrey had a better ROI last week than a lot of the year when he was blowing up. Go figure.
All signs point to McCaffrey bouncing back in this game. He was still heavily targeted in both the passing and running game so there should be no worries about the Panthers starting to take the pressure off of McCaffrey. The Panthers get the Falcons who had a short defensive improvement coming out of their bye but have gone back to their normal ways the last two weeks allowing 35 points to the Bucs and 26 to the Saints. Even at higher ownership, I think McCaffrey is a fine play and I wouldn’t mind playing him in my single entry. The big question will be how the rest of the slate goes. Do you need 35 from McCaffrey this week? I am guessing a score in the teens won’t suffice for the second week in a row.
WR
Wide receiver is completely wide open this week with 11 players in double-digit ownership on both sites but none with greater than 17% ownership. How should we think about a group this big? First, off you should probably play one of these 11 players in your lineup. I think it is fine to play two of them if you don’t have McCaffrey but I would probably stick to one if you have him.
Of these guys the one that I think I am going to lean on most heavily is Christian Kirk. Kirk is also a decent bet for his ownership to fade slightly from this group as he gets a matchup against Joe Haden and as more articles come out, he will likely be discussed as a fade. But I am going to stick with Kirk as someone with 5+ targets in every game. He clearly has Kyler Murray’s attention and the rest of the receivers aren’t much of a threat. I am not sure Kirk has the upside to blow up the slate in this matchup as he did a few weeks ago but at his price point, he can help you build a great lineup and let you find another high-cost player that could blow up. Maybe McCaffrey.
TE
Similar to wide receiver, tight end is pretty wide open this week. There are six guys currently receiving double-digit ownership and none receiving over 16%. Of the guys near the top of the ownership pile, I like Jack Doyle the best. With T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron out, last week Jack Doyle was heavily involved in the passing attack playing 94% of the snaps and receiving 11 targets for 73 yards and a TD. It’s Doyle’s third TD in the last four games. Hilton had been an odd goal-line target but with him and Marlon Mack banged up Doyle has picked up the slack. If Mack returns for this game it will put a damper on Doyle’s upside. Don’t be afraid to grab one of the highest owned tight ends in your lineup this week and differentiate elsewhere. If a single guy starts pulling ahead of the others fade him.
Playing contrarian
If you play too many chalky players you will be competing against too many people to win first place and the odds will be stacked against you. If you play too many contrarian players you won’t score enough points. Remember, the plays are contrarian because most likely there is something wrong with that player. In general, the public is very smart. Finding that right mix is the second hardest thing to do in DFS. In this section, I will try to point you to some of the most contrarian options on the slate with ownership projection below 5%.
If you are playing Christian Kirk as I recommend above you might as well pair him with Kyler Murray. Murray bombed in a tough spot last week against the Rams but before that, it seemed as though the Cardinals offense was finally starting to hit its stride with David Johnson relegated to a backup role behind Kenyan Drake. During week’s 9-11 Kirk had 2+ passing TDs in each game. Murray continues to add to his total on the ground as well and has scored in two straight. The Steelers aren’t a great matchup but this Cardinals passing attack is unique enough to cause problems.
At running back, we saw what Duke Johnson Jr could do against the Patriots if given the opportunity as he totaled 90 all-purpose yards and scored a TD to go with 5 receptions. He helped those of us on the showdown slate get a nice ROI. His success against the Patriots should keep him heavily involved in the game plan against another team that they will need the help of the short passing game, the Broncos. Johnson’s snaps are trending up with 68%, 51%, and 59% since the bye. Keep playing the hot hand.
Auden Tate has been the forgotten man since he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 5. That was also his only one of the year. Tate is 6’5” 228 so his size shouldn’t be a big concern. More likely it is variance that is likely to come to an end. Tate also got Andy Dalton back last week and he promptly went back to Tate targeting him 7 times for 66 yards. At bargain basement prices and ownership, Tate should be a part of your GPP plans. Remember, this is the same guy in a similar situation as week 5 when everyone owned him at 29% and now you can get him at 2%. UPDATE: John Ross appears poised to return from the IR. I am not projecting him for a full role in his first game back but it puts Tate's volume at risk. I think Tate is still a good dart throw but not nearly as good as he was earlier in the week.
While I recommend going with one of the higher owned tight ends Irv Smith makes a great contrarian option at 2% owned if Adam Thielen continues to miss this week which it appears will be the case. Since Thielen’s first injury in week 8 Smith has averaged 75% of the snaps and has been over 80% the last two. During this timeframe, Smith’s target rate has also increased as he is receiving a target on 17% of his snaps compared to 15% earlier in the year. Smith has yet to have a big game but his opportunity says it could be on the way.
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