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Consistent and Valuable…When Healthy

Julian Edelman is not a hard player to analyze. Given his age and experience, the expected range of outcomes is tightly bunched versus most receivers. If healthy, he’ll be a top-12 receiver in PPR formats and a solid WR2 in non-PPR leagues. The Patriots, while aging, are coming off a Super Bowl victory; and Edelman was the MVP.

Furthermore, the team lost a massive portion of last year’s targets, assuring Edelman will be a focal point of Tom Brady’s pass progressions regardless of game script. Health is an issue with Edelman – there’s no denying – but when he’s on the field he’s a can’t miss fantasy value. Rather than overthink things, you should be comfortable drafting Edelman as your No. 2 or No. 3 receiver, knowing you’ll get an excellent return on your investment in any game he’s active; and you can plug-and-play replacement level (or better) options when he misses time.

• Tom Brady remains at the top of his game; the Patriots are the defending Super Bowl champions
• Edelman has been one of Brady's favorite targets since becoming a full-time offensive starter
• Edelman's numbers go from very good to great when Rob Gronkowski is out of the lineup
• The Patriots have a massive number of targets vacated from last year's championship run

A Strange And Winding Road to Relevance

What a strange and winding road it’s been for Julian Edelman. The 5-foot-10, 198-pounder played his college ball at Kent State University, as the starting quarterback. He started 31 games and was not very good, objectively speaking. He completed less than 55% of his passes, threw just 30 touchdowns (less than one per game), and threw 31 interceptions. Where he made his mark was as a runner, playing in an option attack. He ran for 2,483 yards and 22 touchdowns. All that translated into an undersized athlete without a position at the next level. But leave it to Bill Belichick to see a glimpse of potential; the Patriots drafted Edelman (to the surprise of many) in the 7th round of the 2009 draft. He contributed as a rookie, starting seven games and playing the slot as a move-the-chains option; he caught 37 passes for 359 yards and a touchdown. He barely played in 2010 and was then moved to defensive back in 2011 because the secondary had been devastated by injuries. It wasn’t until 2013 that Edelman would regain a full-time role on offense; he shocked the fantasy world with 151 targets for 105 receptions and 1,056 yards and six touchdowns. Since then, when healthy, Edelman has been one of Tom Brady’s most trusted targets, and that all culminated in being named the Super Bowl MVP last year.

A PPR Behemoth, And Pretty, Pretty, Good in Standard to Boot

Since becoming a full-time starter in 2013, Edelman has been a fantasy dynamo, when healthy. Because he’s a high-volume receiver with a low career per-catch average, there’s a perception that he’s mainly valuable in PPR formats. While it’s true he’s incredibly valuable in PPR leagues; we shouldn’t sell him short in non-PPR formats, either.

Per-Game Fantasy Ranking, By Year

• Never ranked worse than WR16, on a per-game basis, in PPR formats
• Never ranked worse than WR27, on a per-game basis, in non-PPR formats
• Average rank (PPR) = WR13
• Average rank (non-PPR) = WR18

No Gronk, All Glory

Edelman has been productive for most of his career, with or without teammate Rob Gronkowski. But his statistical output goes without Gronkowski is markedly better. That’s huge news this year, considering Gronkowski’s decision to ‘retire.’ Assuming Gronk doesn’t change his mind (as has been rumored), Edelman should be in-line for career-best per-game averages.

Edelman Stats with and without Gronk (Pro-rated over a 16-game Season)

It’s Not Just Gronk Who’s Missing

While Gronkowski’s absence is an obvious boon, the Patriots have other holes to fill. In fact, New England enters training camp with 233 targets missing from last season; they have to find a way to make up 42% of last year’s throws.

2018 Target Map, Sorted by Returning Players (Blue) and Departed Players (Red)

Bill Belichick didn’t sit idly by in the offseason. The Patriots added other viable targets for Tom Brady:

• Demaryius Thomas -- Signed a 1-year deal, coming off a torn Achilles [No lock for the roster]
• Dontrelle Inman -- Signed a 1-year deal, 30-year-old journeyman [No lock for the roster]
• Maurice Harris -- Signed a 1-year deal, 26-year old with 40 career receptions [Probably makes the roster, as slot option]
• Ben Watson -- Signed a 1-year deal, 38-year old serving a 4-game suspension to open the season [Roster lock]
• Lance Kendricks -- Signed a 1-year deal, 31-year-old journeyman [No lock for the roster]
• Matt LaCosse -- Signed a 2-year deal, 26-year old has 27 receptions in four seasons [Roster lock]
• NKeal Harry -- Prized rookie receiver, extremely bright future but had a rough mini-camp [Roster lock, and will contribute]
• Damien Harris -- Prized rookie running back [Roster lock, and will contribute]

None of these additions pose a threat to Edelman given his pedigree, experience, and talent. Edelman – if he manages to stay on the field for 16 games – could be among the NFL’s most targeted players.

About Those Missed Games

The only fly in the ointment in terms of Edelman's fantasy recipe is a troubling injury history. He's missed 45 of 160 regular-season games (28%).

• 2009 (5 Games) -- Fractured Arm
• 2010 (1 Game) -- Foot Sprain
• 2011 (3 Games) -- Sprained Ankle
• 2012 (7 Games) -- Fractured Hand, Concussion, Fractured Foot
• 2013 (0 Games)
• 2014 (2 Games) -- Concussion
• 2015 (7 Games) -- Fractured Foot
• 2016 (0 Games)
• 2017 (16 Games) -- Torn ACL
• 2018 (4 Games) -- Suspended for PEDs

It's also worth mentioning he's missed big chunks of the preseason with other maladies, and has already been diagnosed with a broken thumb that will keep him out of training camp and the preseason. What you have to take into account when drafting Edelman is whether your roster affords you a compelling replacement for those weeks he'll inevitably miss. It's not ideal -- but it's an easily navigable concern for dedicated, active fantasy managers.

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

Julian Edelman is a borderline WR1 in PPR formats, when healthy. And he's a rock-solid WR2 in non-PPR formats, despite his reputation to the contrary. As long as you're comfortable with building enough depth to have a viable replacement for the few games he'll probably miss, Edelman is worth his current average draft position, and then some. He could be in line for a career year, given Rob Gronkowski's retirement and the broader issue of needing to find 230+ targets that are no longer on the roster from last year's Super Bowl unit. You're better off with 12-14 games of Edelman plus replacement players than just about anyone being drafted after the first two rounds. In a year when New England has question marks up and down the roster, Edelman is the only reliable, consistent, and proven piece of puzzle that's already been solved.

Other Viewpoints

Footballguys' own Jeff Pasquio illustrates how reliable Julian Edelman is...he doesn't give you bad starts:

"The first observation is that there were only two receivers on the entire list with just zero bad starts (Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins – the second year in a row for Hopkins ) and only four with just one Bad Start (Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman and A.J. Green) – and Green missed nearly half of the season. Five of these receivers (all but Green) were in the Top 8 in Net Value, joined by three receivers with just two bad starts (Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen and Odell Beckham Jr/a>)."

PFF's Daniel Kelley agrees that Edelman is a good value with a high floor:

"Best guess: If we’re just talking ceiling, Edelman could easily finish the year as a top-seven (or so) receiver, especially if the tight ends flounder and/or N’Keal Harry doesn’t develop. That’s too high to take him, but among the receivers going in the mid-teens at the position (other than Tyreek Hill, who is a different question for these purposes), Edelman probably has the highest ceiling."

Twitter: @FBGWood