Why Last Year Was Mike Williams' Fantasy Ceiling

Photo: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports

Good Player With A Defined Ceiling

Mike Williams more than justified the Chargers investment in him with a breakout 2018. His performance was enough to let Los Angeles part ways with Tyrell Williams, guaranteeing Mike Williams a full-time starting role opposite Keenan Allen. The prospect of a full-time role and 750+ offensive snaps has fantasy owners projecting Williams for a move into the upper echelon. While that’s a possible outcome, it’s not the most likely one.

• Williams finished WR22 last year, but that was due to an unsustainable 23% touchdown rate
• Although Tyrell Williams is gone, Hunter Henry is back and will command a large target share
• The Chargers only threw the ball 512 times and had one of their best seasons in the Rivers era
• Receivers with 100 or fewer targets and 10% or less touchdown conversion rates struggle to crack the Top 30

Willams current ADP puts him toward the bottom of the WR2 tier (WR25, to be exact). While it’s tempting to expect Williams to improve on last year, and thus outperform his WR22 ranking, that would be a mistake. He can (and likely will) have more targets, catches, and yards, but the offsetting normalization of his touchdown total will more than cap his upside. If you’re targeting Williams as a solid WR3, then proceed. If you’re targeting him as a breakout with top-15 potential, you’re counting on too many statistically unlikely factors happening in the same season.

One Year Does Not A Career Make

Mike Williams is the poster boy for the fickle nature of fantasy drafting. In 2017, Williams was the first receiver taken in the NFL draft; the Chargers selected the former Clemson Tiger with the 7th overall pick. Things didn’t go well, as Williams only played ten games and caught 11 passes. His catch rate (48%) and yards-per-reception (8.6 yards) were abysmal, and it left many wondering if he would bust. To put William’s rookie season in context, here are all the rookie receivers (since 1992) with at least 20 targets, a sub-50% catch rate, and a sub-10 yard-per-reception average:

Table: All Rookie Receivers with 20+ Targets, <50% Catch Rate, and <10 Yards-Per-Reception

You’ll note the other receivers on this list went on to have forgettable careers. Under that context, it’s not hard to understand why fantasy managers might have written off Williams. But it would’ve been a grave mistake in judgment.

Keeping the Faith Paid Off

Those who kept the faith were handsomely rewarded last year. Williams shook off the rookie travails and emerged as one of the league’s promising young play-makers in 2018:

• 66 targets
• 43 receptions
• 664 yards
• 15.4 yards per reception
• 10 touchdowns
• WR22 fantasy ranking

Impressive, but Beware of TD Dependence

Williams looked the part last year, but let’s not lose sight of the fact he caught ten touchdowns on 43 receptions; that equates to a touchdown rate of 23%. Touchdowns are the most volatile component of fantasy scoring and are also prone to regression.

To get a sense of what a “normal” touchdown rate would be for Williams, let’s take a look at other receivers who enjoyed a season of abnormally high touchdown-conversion.

Receivers with a 20% touchdown rate (1999-2017, Minimum 5 Touchdowns)

Over the last 20 years, 28 receivers had a season with at least a 20% touchdown conversion rate. Their average season was:

• 46 catches
• 731 yards
• 10 touchdowns
• 22.2% conversion rate

That’s eerily similar to Williams’ 2018 totals. Note that the average touchdown conversion rate for this cohort – for the rest of their careers – was 8.4%. In other words, don’t fall into the trap of thinking because Williams caught 10 touchdowns last year, he’s preternaturally disposed to tallying big touchdown totals in subsequent years. History tells us it’s a flawed assumption.

Won’t He See More Targets?

Williams may not convert as many catches into scores this year, but if he can improve in other ways, he can still be valuable. He only had 66 targets last year, which is a relatively low number for a top-25 fantasy receiver.

Reasons to expect more targets:

1. Tyrell Williams – who had 64 targets last year – joined the Raiders
2. Williams will be a full-time starter this season
3. The Chargers only threw the ball 512 times, far below Philip Rivers’ average season
4. Melvin Gordon III’s potential holdout skews the Chargers toward a higher pass/run ratio
5. No. 1 receiver Keenan Allen has missed big chunks of time in prior seasons

Reasons to worry Williams won’t see more targets:

1. Keenan Allen’s talent justifies an insanely high target share
2. Tight end Hunter Henry is healthy and will be a mismatch against opposing linebackers
3. The Chargers were among the AFC’s best teams last year (if it’s not broke, don’t fix it)
4. The defense should be elite, allowing a more balanced game script

Conclusion – Expect more targets for Williams, but don’t expect him to exceed 100 targets without a significant injury to either Keenan Allen or Hunter Henry.

Sub-100 Target Receivers and their Fantasy Ceilings

Receivers with 100 or fewer targets rarely finish much higher than Mike Williams' WR22 rank last year. Over the last 20 years, here are the Top 25 fantasy seasons by a receiver with 100 or fewer targets.

Top 25 Fantasy Seasons for Receivers with 100 or Fewer Targets (1999-2018)

Only two receivers – Jordy Nelson and Mike Wallace – had top-10 seasons with 100 or fewer targets. Quite a few receivers managed to crack the top 20, much in the same way Williams almost did last year. But this data is flawed because every one of these receivers had a high touchdown conversion rate. It stands to reason the only way you’ll have a big fantasy season without a ton of targets, is to have an unusual number of touchdown catches.

But as we already established, outlier touchdown rates are doomed to regression. So what we should be looking at are the receivers who have 100 or fewer targets, and has an average touchdown conversion rate. We’ll peg that at 10% or lower for this discussion. Here are the ten best fantasy seasons by a receiver with 100 or fewer targets, and a touchdown rate of 10% or less.

Top 10 Fantasy Seasons For Receivers with 100 of Fewer Targets and 10% or Lower Touchdown Conversion (1999-2018)

As you can see, if a receiver doesn’t get more than 100 targets, and doesn’t convert an unusually high percentage into touchdowns, it’s hard to make a fantasy impact. Johnny Knox’s WR24 ranking is the best performance of that cohort in the last 20 years.

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

Mike Williams is a young, talented receiver. He has a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing to him and has a starting spot locked up for years to come. Williams proved last year he can use his size to body opposing defensive backs and win jump balls in tight spaces. There's plenty of reason to be excited about his future. But, winning fantasy leagues is all about finding value. At Williams' current ADP, he's being drafted fairly. Don't avoid him, but don't reach for him expecting further growth. It's quite likely Williams will have more targets, catches, and yards in 2019 -- but it's equally likely his touchdown total will come back to Earth. If things go according to plan in Los Angeles, Williams most likely finishes as a fantasy WR3. But he's worth drafting at ADP because the only thing keeping him from a top-20 finish is opportunity. If either Keenan Allen or Hunter Henry get hurt, the ceiling for Williams' targets gets lifted, and then all bets are off. Sometimes a player isn't being over-drafted or under-drafted, sometimes he's going at an ideal spot. That's the case with Willams. Last year's WR22 finish was probably a peak, but being a perennial top-30 receiver is hardly a bad career.

Other Viewpoints

The Fantasy Footballers Matthew Betz is a tad more optimistic about Williams' prospects:

"Mike Williams’ 2018 season was extremely efficient. However, his targets, receptions, and yards will all increase and with that increased volume, efficiency is going to drop, and that’s okay when it comes to projecting his 2019 season. Even if Williams doesn’t find the end zone 10 times in 2019, his yardage and receptions should help pad the stats, making him a solid WR2 with some WR1 upside for 2019."

PFF's Scott Barrett sees Williams as a prime touchdown regression candidate:

"More than any player we’ve mentioned thus far, Williams seems the most likely to come crashing down to earth. He scored 4.6 touchdowns above his expectation, which ranks as the 18th-largest positive differential this past decade. He ranked fifth in touchdowns (10) but just 19th in expected touchdowns (6.4), implying volume wasn’t nearly as good as his production implied. On top of that, he was far too reliant on touchdowns for fantasy points. In total, 33% of his fantasy points came on touchdowns, which ranked third-most among wide receivers, and he averaged just 41.5 receiving yards per game (55th)."

Twitter: @FBGWood