RELATED: See all of our 2025 Player Spotlights here.
Stuck In Limbo
Zay Flowers enters his third season firmly atop the depth chart on one of the league's powerhouse teams. He has one of the NFL's best quarterbacks throwing his way, is tied to a top-three offense, and remains on the upward slope of his development curve. So why aren't fantasy managers buzzing more about Flowers heading into 2025?
The reasons are straightforward:
- The Baltimore Ravens still don't throw the ball often, ranking near the bottom of the league in pass attempts.
- Flowers has yet to deliver top-30 fantasy value in either of his first two seasons, leaving some to wonder if his ceiling is capped by scheme and volume.
Those two factors have kept enthusiasm in check, and they help explain why expectations remain tempered. At best, Flowers profiles as a low-end WR2 for 2025, which may not be enough to spark widespread excitement despite his clear role and talent.
A Run-Heavy System: Why Mess with Success?
Lamar Jackson has been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks for the better half of a decade. While his early value was tied closely to his remarkable rushing ability, he's developed into one of the league's best true dual-threat quarterbacks. However, Jackson's passing production, though efficient, depends heavily on maximizing that efficiency to make up for consistently low passing volume.
Table: Lamar Jackson's Passing Attempts per Game (2018-2024)
| Year | Att/Gm |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 22.6 |
| 2019 | 26.7 |
| 2020 | 25.1 |
| 2021 | 34.4 |
| 2022 | 29.3 |
| 2023 | 28.6 |
| 2024 | 27.9 |
| Average | 27.9 |
Of the 43 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 attempts over that span, Jackson's 27.9 attempts per game ranks 38th. It's also important to note that his 2021 season (34.4 attempts per game) was a clear anomaly we are unlikely to see again. That year also marked the only time in Jackson's tenure that the Ravens failed to make the playoffs and win at least 10 games. The organization has shown it believes the team is at its best when Jackson throws judiciously.
For a receiver to excel in such a low-volume passing environment, a disproportionately high target share is essential. Yet Jackson's distribution has remained steady throughout the years, which further limits the upside for Baltimore's top pass catchers.
Table: Ravens Target Share (Top 3) in Lamar Jackson's Starts (2018-2024)
| Year | Tgt 1 | Tgt 2 | Tgt 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18.9% | 16.4% | 15.1% |
| 2019 | 22.6% | 17.5% | 10.4% |
| 2020 | 25.1% | 24.5% | 13.2% |
| 2021 | 26.4% | 24.4% | 10.8% |
| 2022 | 25.1% | 15.2% | 14.6% |
| 2023 | 24.0% | 14.2% | 13.6% |
| 2024 | 25.4% | 15.8% | 15.1% |
| Average | 24.4% | 18.3% | 13.1% |
The Ravens' top receiver averages a 24.4% target share, a solid figure but toward the low end of where most No. 1 receivers across the league fall. However, it's not unusually high and falls well short of what would be necessary to offset Baltimore's consistently low passing volume.
If we combine Jackson's average attempts per game with his historical target distribution, we can project the average number of targets for the Ravens' top three receivers in a typical season.
Table: Ravens Receivers (Top 3) Annualized Target Volume (2018-2024)
| Year | Tgt 1 | Tgt 2 | Tgt 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 68.1 | 59.1 | 54.5 |
| 2019 | 96.6 | 74.9 | 44.5 |
| 2020 | 100.5 | 98.3 | 53.0 |
| 2021 | 144.9 | 134.1 | 59.6 |
| 2022 | 117.8 | 71.2 | 68.5 |
| 2023 | 109.7 | 65.0 | 61.9 |
| 2024 | 113.2 | 70.3 | 67.4 |
| Average | 108.8 | 81.8 | 58.5 |
On average, the Ravens' alpha receiver sees about 109 targets per season. Not coincidentally, that aligns almost exactly with Zay Flowers' workload in his first two years:
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