Elite from the Start, and Ready for a Repeat
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Almost everyone got Bo Nix wrong last year, except for Denver Broncos general manager George Paton and head coach Sean Payton. Despite a storied college career that included an NCAA-record 61 starts, most NFL draft pundits mocked Nix's pro potential and openly derided the Broncos for drafting him 12th overall. The common refrain was that Denver, desperate for a quarterback, had reached for a "system" guy by taking the sixth rookie quarterback off the board.
Reading all of that now feels as silly as it should.
Nix wasn't a consolation prize. He was exceptional, and were it not for an all-time rookie season from Jayden Daniels, Nix would have been the toast of the quarterback class and widely regarded as one of the best picks at any position.
Entering his second season, the sky is the limit for Nix, and he should comfortably return value as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. He's supported by a top-10 offensive line, all his key skill players are back after helping him finish as QB8 last year, and Denver added a dynamic veteran "Joker" and a few rookie playmakers to bolster depth and allow Coach Payton to further expand the playbook.
Rampant, Misguided Disrespect
Fantasy players often have short memories, but don't forget how universally disliked the Broncos' selection of Nix was last spring. A few of the more regrettable post-draft takes included:
- CBS gave the Nix selection a C-.
- ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. gave Denver a C+, specifically criticizing Nix at 12th overall.
- NFL.com gave the Broncos a B- draft grade, including a C grade for Nix in the first round.
The disrespect extended to the fantasy community as well. Nix's average draft position (ADP) last year across major platforms:
- CBS: QB23
- ESPN: QB23
- Sleeper: QB26
What Did the Broncos See That Others Missed?
Hindsight is 20/20, but credit Denver for recognizing Nix's potential when few others did. Their decision was rooted in principles some consider "old school" scouting beliefs:
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Experience – Payton and Paton value quarterbacks with extensive playing time, and Nix was the most experienced college quarterback in history. His 61 starts, aided by a Covid-related fifth-year waiver, are an NCAA record that may stand for years.
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Persistent improvement – Too many analysts held Nix's early Auburn struggles against him and undervalued his steady growth. He improved his completion percentage every year, and his passer rating climbed from 125.0 as a freshman to 188.3 in his final season.
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Accuracy – Payton believes accuracy is the most critical trait in his offense. Nix set an NCAA record by completing 77.4% of his passes in 2023.
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Sack avoidance – Payton has long believed sacks are primarily a quarterback stat, crediting Drew Brees' ability to get rid of the ball. Nix posted a 1.2% sack rate in his final season at Oregon, one of the best marks ever.