C.J. Stroud: Are We Getting It Wrong Again?

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Are We Getting It Wrong Again?

C.J. Stroud enters Year 3 at a crossroads. His rookie season in 2023 was one for the ages, as he significantly outperformed his preseason ADP and looked like the next great fantasy quarterback. That breakout led to widespread confidence, and he was drafted as a high-end QB1 last season. But things unraveled in 2024, as Stroud underperformed across the board.

Now, the reactionary pendulum has swung back. Stroud's current ADP sits at QB18, reflecting a market suddenly wary of his upside. We aren't far off from consensus, as our projections place him at QB20, closely bunched with a handful of other viable QB2s. Are we about to misjudge him for a third straight season? Houston's offensive struggles last year were as much about injuries and bad luck as poor management. The Texans, widely respected around the league, made deliberate moves this offseason to stabilize the roster and coaching staff. If Stroud returns to top-10 form, many fantasy managers will once again be caught flat-footed.

Table: C.J. Stround Preseason ADP versus Year-End Fantasy Rank

2023: A Mispriced First-Round Rookie

The Houston Texans, coming off a 3-13-1 season, entered a full rebuild in the 2023 offseason. Ownership dismissed head coach Lovie Smith and hired San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans as his replacement. Ryans brought Bobby Slowik with him, the 49ers' passing game coordinator in 2022, who had spent six seasons on Kyle Shanahan's staff. The next step for general manager Nick Caserio, already on the hot seat after overseeing two dismal seasons, was to find his new coaching staff a franchise quarterback.

The Texans held the No. 2 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, giving them their choice of any quarterback not named Bryce Young, who the Carolina Panthers had locked in at 1.01. Their realistic options were:

• Anthony Richardson Sr. – A raw but electrifying athlete from Florida with unprecedented physical tools and unrefined passing mechanics.
• Will Levis – A polarizing Kentucky prospect with a big arm, divisive tape, and a strong supporting cast at the collegiate level.
• C.J. Stroud – A two-year starter at Ohio State who led the nation in passing touchdowns with 44 in 2021 and 41 in 2022.

Ultimately, we know the team chose Stroud. Despite his having far and away the best resume of the options, many questioned the fantasy upside because Stroud was coming from a college system that had NFL-quality players up and down the roster, and he lacked the rushing upside we've come to require from our fantasy quarterbacks.

Fortunately for Texans fans and those daring fantasy drafters who picked him late in drafts as their QB2, everything clicked.

Table: All-Time Rookie QB Seasons, Sorted by Fantasy PPG

2024: Believing the Hype

After finishing QB8 as a rookie, excitement ran wild. Anyone capable of that kind of rookie season surely had elite upside. No quarterback peaks in their first year, right? Not to mention the Texans didn't sit still, they traded for Stefon Diggs to pair with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and also acquired Joe Mixon to solidify the ground game, fostering a more balanced approach that wouldn't allow opposing defenses to key on the pass attack.

Unfortunately, things didn't go according to plan. The offensive line couldn't protect Stroud and gave up 54 sacks (8.7% sack rate). Stefon Diggs was good (WR18 through 8 games) but tore his ACL mid-season. Tank Dell regressed and was a marginal contributor (WR48) most of the year before getting hurt, too. And Nico Collins lived up to his top billing (WR8 on a per-game basis) but missed a chunk of the season, too. Stroud's play took a hit in nearly every metric:

Table: C.J. Stroud Key Passing Metrics, Per Game (2023-2024)

2025: Stroud's ADP Reality Check