New Reality No.139: 2020 Free Agent Quarterbacks

Chad Parsons's New Reality No.139: 2020 Free Agent Quarterbacks Chad Parsons Published 11/13/2019

Beginning the 2020 NFL free agency preview of available players, cut candidates, and landing spots, here is a look at the quarterback position around the NFL landscape:

2020 FREE AGENTS

TOP TIER

All three are odds-on favorites to return to their current team as Kirk Cousins walking in free agency is a rare situation in the NFL to leave a franchise without much resistance after several strong seasons. Prescott is firmly in his prime and set to break the quarterback bank in the contract and guaranteed money. Brees and Rivers are on the home stretch of their careers but all-time players and their games center on quick decisions more than mobility and overt physical traits.

SECOND TIER

Winston and Mariota represent the top-2 of the 2015 NFL Draft. Winston survived as the starter in Tampa Bay longer than Mariota in Tennessee, but Ryan Tannehill is a far superior option than anything Tampa Bay could pivot to after losing Ryan Fitzpatrick of note from their 2018 depth chart. Both are sub-.500 options in 60+ starts. Winston is leading the NFL in interceptions and sacks through Week 10 and below 60% completion rate for the first time since his rookie season. Mariota's near-69% completion rate from 2018 eroded to a career-low 59% this year and he took more than four sacks per game and Mariota's Bad Throw Rate is in the same zone as Winston, who has been a long-discussed too big of a risk-taker with his decisions and accuracy over the years.

Bridgewater excelled with his first significant starting stint since his 2016 injury. Bridgewater went 5-0 with 68% completion rate and 9-2 TD-INT ratio, including two game-winning drives along the way. Bridgewater is earmarked to garner starting interest in the offseason and could be the top option if the three top tier quarterbacks all return to their present teams.

Tannehill has a better career profile than Winston and Mariota with a near-.500 record and 131-79 TD-INT ratio and posting one of his best career stretches in 2019. Tannehill has an 8-4 TD-INT ratio, 71% completion rate, 3-1 record, two fourth-down comebacks, and career-best 8.5 YPA and TD rate. Tannehill still offers rushing upside with more than three rushes per game and nearly 14 yards per contest.

BEST OF THE REST

Taysom Hill is the most intriguing developmental option on the list, used as a 'jack of all trades' weapon for the Saints. Hill is a mere 5-of-9 passing over 25 games in New Orleans, adding 288 rushing yards and 104 receiving yards on 62 career touches. Hill may be viewed as a playmaker more than QB1/2 on an NFL depth chart in free agency.
Eli Manning is the glaring 'veteran stopgap' name on the list, potentially finding a Joe Flacco opportunity to start the season for a team before transitioning to a young quarterback, likely from the 2020 NFL Draft.
Chase Daniel and A.J. McCarron are long-time NFL backups. Daniel has started five games since 2010, three of which over the past two seasons. McCarron is a handful of years younger with three starts (back in 2015) with solid results. At worst, they are solid backups with stopgap potential if needed.
Nick Mullens is a wild card, who could be viewed in a higher tier. With a half-season of starts in 2018, Mullens posted a 64% completion rate, 13-10 TD-INT ratio, and 8.3 YPA at 23 years old. In the pro-Mullens camp is sifting for >62% completion rate, 10+ touchdowns, and >8.0 YPA in their first eight career starts:
Outside of Rob Johnson, this is an impressive list pointing to plenty of future opportunities as an NFL starter and success. Rob Johnson, the worst name on the list, even started another 22 games after the eight-game cutoff.

2020 QUARTERBACK LANDING SPOTS

Excluding the top tier teams, assuming they return their veterans with new contracts, here are the best landing spots to disperse the above free agents:

TOP TIER

  • Buccaneers
  • Titans
  • Panthers
  • Bengals
  • Bears
  • Dolphins
  • Jaguars
The Buccaneers, Titans, and Bengals are projected to have starting opening for next season. All have some cornerstone offensive weapons with Tampa Bay being the best of the trio to build around with a quarterback. Kyle Allen is an exclusive rights free agent in Carolina with minimal pedigree and Cam Newton has minimal dead cap remaining as Carolina could save $19 million if moving on. The Dolphins and Jaguars have veterans and young quarterbacks on the roster but little stability to point to ignoring options via the draft and/or free agency in 2020. The Bears make the list with Mitchell Trubisky in the crosshairs of weekly criticism and holding back an otherwise strong roster through 10 weeks in 2019, failing to make any progress from 2018.

BEST OF THE REST

  • Saints
  • Ravens
  • Texans
  • Vikings
  • 49ers
  • Rams
All of the Saints quarterbacks are free agents. Even if Drew Brees returns, the backup role is likely wide open on a strong offense. The same backup availability on a strong offense premise applies to Baltimore, Houston, Minnesota, San Francisco, and with the Rams.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The 2020 season is poised to be the most interesting offseason for the quarterback position in recent memory. The projected established older veterans as free agents added to wild cards like Cam Newton offer an in-flux of available talent not seen in the market. The available talent will trigger analysis of the what-if young quarterbacks with pedigree currently holding starting jobs but yet to make significant progress towards being one of the better signal-callers in the NFL. This includes Washington, the Jets, and Dolphins. Considering the 2020 NFL Draft features a strong projected top tier of quarterbacks in addition to the above available veterans, the 2020 offseason is poised to be the most intriguing quarterback shuffle to shift the landscape.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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