Who is your top quarterback on a different team in 2020? Are you targeting this player in a normal redraft league? Do you think they might be underrated by most of the fantasy community?
Chad Parsons
Tom Brady is the low-hanging fruit. His weapons eroded quickly in New England with Rob Gronkowski gone in 2019 and no tangible outside target to soften a defense. Fast-forward to 2020 and Brady has Gronkowski back in Tampa Bay, but without the pressure to be an impact option. Tampa Bay has an all-star cast with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at receiver, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate joining Gronkowski at tight end, and even promising upside from ancillary receivers like Justin Watson, Scott Miller, and rookie Tyler Johnson depending on which develops into the main contributor from the trio, if any. Annually, I wait on the quarterback position in all formats, and seeing Brady outside the top-15 or so quarterbacks in post-NFL Draft data has him firmly on my target radar.
Jason Wood
I'm with Chad, I don't know how you pick someone other than Brady. He's QB12 in current industry consensus, and no other quarterback on a new team cracks the top 20. Your other options are essentially Philip Rivers, Teddy Bridgewater, and Nick Foles. I won't reiterate Chad's points on Brady but will concur with his views. He's got a stellar supporting cast and an offensive-minded coach willing to let the offense flow through Brady's mind.
If we removed Brady from the list, I would be most intrigued by Teddy Bridgewater on paper. He's got Joe Brady -- last year's college play-calling mastermind -- building an offense that turned Joe Burrow from disgruntled transfer to record-breaking SEC star. And the Panthers supporting cast is robust, particularly with the addition of deep threat Robby Anderson to pair with D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, not to mention the best receiving back in the league in Christin McCaffrey.
Jeff Pasquino
Brady is the clear choice, but I can definitely see the upside of grabbing Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina. Robby Anderson has ties to Matt Ruhle from their days in Temple, and Ruhle brings an up-tempo offensive mind from Baylor. Bridgewater has all the skill position players to excel with Anderson, C.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, along with both TE Ian Thomas and Christian McCaffrey. Carolina's offense is going to overlooked, predominantly in the passing game, where the Panthers only mustered up 17 touchdowns through the air. Bridgewater showed that he was more than capable as a starter when he filled in for Drew Brees, and now he has the starting role in Carolina. If you can't grab Brady (or if his draft price keeps escalating), taking Bridgewater is not a bad selection at all.
Jordan McNamara
Brady is the clear choice, but Philip Rivers is an interesting bounce-back candidate later in the draft. Rivers threw for 4615 yards in 2019 on 7.8 yards per attempt the 11th best number in the league while finishing as QB15. Rivers was hampered by a low touchdown rate (3.9%), a stat that is volatile year to year and averages around 4.5%. The supporting cast is not as good as the Chargers, but T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman, Paris Campbell, Jack Doyle, Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines with a strong offensive line, give Rivers a shot to sustain fantasy value in 2019 season. Rivers will be a late-round dart throw in redraft and represents an intriguing option in Superflex or 2QB leagues.
Jeff Haseley
There aren't many quarterbacks who joined a new team for the 2020 season, but the NFC South has three of them, Tom Brady, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jameis Winston. Tom Brady going from New England to Tampa Bay is the big story. Brady may have been an average fantasy quarterback in 2019 (12th in FanDuel rankings), but now he inherits a team with two bonafide solid wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, not to mention his longtime buddy, Rob Gronkowski. The immediate path for Brady to make another championship run is paved, provided he stays healthy and does not decline in the sunset of his career. Staying in the NFC South, Teddy Bridgewater will have a chance to resurrect his career with Carolina and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. He'll have a strong supporting cast led by Christian McCaffrey that includes D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson. Among the wide receivers mentioned above on Carolina, Moore's 4.42 40-time is the slowest of the three, which isn't too shabby. Bridgewater proved his worth with a 5-0 performance in New Orleans last year. Has he turned the corner in his path for greatness? The opportunity is there for him to thrive.
Andy Hicks
To play devil's advocate and not pile on with the Tom Brady consensus I will take the much younger Philip Rivers. Brady will be 43. It’s hard to wrap your head around how surreal that is to see and if we examine his last season with the Patriots it can be argued it was his poorest season since 2001, for many clearly observed reasons. If Bill Belichick was lukewarm on keeping Brady, can we conclude that he has seen a clear deterioration?
Looking at Rivers, he may not have a better supporting cast right now than with the Chargers as Jordan mused, but potentially he has a much better one. The Colts have invested high draft picks in Parris Campbell, Michael Pittman, and Jonathan Taylor. T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle, and Marlon Mack have all been good performers as well. They have considerable depth at the skill positions, but the star here though is the offensive line, something the Chargers struggled to get right for Rivers.
Bob Henry
Tom Brady is the unanimous and obvious top choice. However, if we're looking at this through a lens of value than Rivers and Bridgewater both make a ton of sense. Bridgewater has a bevy of weapons at his disposal with Joe Brady calling the plays. There is a ton of variance here as we really don't know what kind of tempo Brady and Matt Rhule will ultimately drive for the Panthers offensive attack. We assume it will resemble LSU's record-setting offense but there a wide range of outcomes and Bridgewater could rise or fall in the rankings with that tide. Given the draft capital needed, it's a solid upside risk.
Rivers will play behind the best offensive line he's enjoyed perhaps in his entire career, if not in recent memory. He also has the benefit of reuniting with Frank Reich. In three years with Reich calling plays in San Diego, Rivers finished as QB5, QB11, and QB13. The Colts also bolstered their receiving corp in the draft with Michael Pittman Jr (often compared to Vincent Jackson) and we could see Parris Campbell blossom in his second season. Needless to say, for a low ADP price, Rivers still has a reasonable shot at low-end QB1 value.
If Tom Brady finishes anywhere outside the QB1 range he'll be an ADP loss given his popularity and appropriate expectations for his new surroundings.
Drew Davenport
I agree with the votes for Brady here, although I'm not as bullish on him as others. He definitely has a mouth-watering group of skill players to throw to and Tampa Bay upgraded their offensive line with their top pick in the draft. But part of Jameis Winston's fantasy bonanza last year was based on an awful Buccaneer pass defense and lots of Winston turnovers. I'm counting on the fantasy points to be blunted a little with Brady at the helm.
Instead, I'm going to put my vote with Teddy Bridgewater like a few of the other guys. Although Carolina chose exclusively defensive players in this year's draft, it still doesn't look like their defense is going to be worth much. In a tough division with three very good offenses, they are going to be playing from behind a lot. It's also worth noting that the big knock on Bridgewater was his Average Depth of Target last year which was a weak 6.2 yards per attempt. This would've ranked last in the league right behind...Drew Brees. Yet Bridgewater's accuracy was good enough for 3rd in the league, according to Pro Football Reference behind Derek Carr and...Drew Brees. The conclusion I'm drawing is the Bridgewater did what he was asked to do in the Saints offense and he did it very well. Nobody really knows what the offense in Carolina will look like, but if he doesn't want to push it down the field he's got the best possible scenario to do that with the players he has at his disposal. And if he does? Look out. He'll be going downfield to explosive playmakers, against strong opponents putting up points on a poor Panthers defense. I love Bridgewater late in drafts.
Phil Alexander
My top-ranked quarterback who changed teams is Tom Brady (QB7). If you're interested in my initial reaction to the Brady signing from earlier this off-season, it can be found here.
While Brady makes a fine target in redraft leagues, he's close to appropriately valued based on his early ADP. As some of the fellas have already pointed out, Bridgewater is a quarterback you can buy on the cheap, who has the potential to become an every-week fantasy starter on his new team.
Joe Brady didn't become an NFL offensive coordinator at 30-years-old by accident. "We have to find what our guys do well and put them in the best position to have success. Let’s find what they do well and do what they do well. If we’re not doing that, we’re not doing a great job as a coach.”
That is what a smart coach sounds like. And it just so happens the things Carolina's players do well complement each other rather nicely.
Bridgewater - Throws with poise and accuracy to the intermediate parts of the field.
- McCaffrey - Best receiving back in football. If Brady's body of work at LSU is any indication, McCaffrey will be called upon to line up out wide more in four-and five-receiver sets.
- Moore - Emerging alpha receiver ranked 11th in yards-after-the-catch last season.
- Samuel - Another potential YAC monster. He was miscast as a downfield receiver by Carolina's previous regime and should operate closer to the line of scrimmage this year.
- Thomas - The Panthers' young tight end hasn't been mentioned much here yet, but he has top-level athleticism and excelled at every opportunity he's been given as a pro. He's yet another reliable intermediate target for Bridgewater, as well as a load to defend in the red zone.
- Anderson - Not a great fit with Bridgewater on the surface, but he's a downfield threat enemy defenses must account for. He'll provide all of the above players with more room to operate on the underneath routes they thrive on.
If the offense comes together on the field the way it looks like it will on paper, there is even a path to an elite upside for Bridgewater. Carolina's defense ranked 32nd against the run last year and lost their franchise linebacker, Luke Keuchly, to retirement. Opponents should be able to impose their will on Carolina's depleted defense, forcing Bridgewater and co. to keep their foot on the pedal for all four quarters most weeks.
