These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.
The key to this game is going to be a lot of Weather and Defense. This is a bit of a unique scenario as it is a combination of some of the best defenses in the NFL, along with offenses that like to spread the ball around and have running back committees. The weather is going to be ugly in this one as it should be around 25 degrees with a 20+MPH sustained wind and gusts up to 60MPH. Needless to say, if it is gusting in Buffalo, neither team is going to have success throwing the ball. 20MPH as a sustained wind is right at the border of having a significant impact.
Josh Allen- Great Captain/Flex
On a difficult slate, taking Josh Allen at the captain might be the way to go on this slate. Both teams are going to struggle to throw the ball in this weather, and the Bils may have to rely on Allen to distribute the ball around this week. Allen has been struggling as of late as he has topped 300 yards just once in his last six games, has only ran for three touchdowns this season, and in general is not playing at the MVP caliber level that he started off the season with. The matchup is a difficult one going up against New England who are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but with limited options on a showdown slate, all passing options are going to be in a tough spot in this game. Expect Allen to be the most popular captain on this slate, which based on the price may encourage you to take him as a flex just to pivot off of the field.
Devin Singletary- Great Captain/Flex
The Bills seem to be moving on from Zack Moss as he was a healthy scratch last week in favor of Matt Breida. This opened up an opportunity for Singletary to take a more primary role in this offense as he carried the ball 15 times albeit against the best run defense in football in the New Orleans Saints, but the more encouraging factor was that he was on the field for 68% of the plays after trending in the 30-40% range for most of this season. In a wind heavy game, expect the Bills to try to establish the run and Singletary is going to play a big part of that this week. The price is also incredibly favorable as he is just $4,600 in what seems to be a massive mispricing from DraftKings this week.
Stefon Diggs- Contrarian Captain, Better Flex
Stefon Diggs has not had the year that he had hoped for, but it is starting to turn around as he has caught four touchdowns over his last three games and six in his last six games. While Diggs has not put up the incredible numbers that he did last season, the numbers that he is putting up are still very consistent as he has topped 60 yards receiving in 9 of his 11 games this year. Diggs ranks second in the NFL in red zone targets which could come into play in this game as both teams may struggle to move the ball that one touchdown from your captain could be all you need on this slate.
Cole Beasley- Flex
Taking a slot receiver in bad weather could make a lot of sense as the team looks to throw the ball short to continue to just move the ball down the field. Beasley has been a bit inconsistent this season, but when he is on, he is fantastic as he has five games with seven or more catches this season. The problem for Beasley and why he is not a great captain this week is that he only has one touchdown on the year and has only topped 100 yards once this season so from an upside perspective, it is tough to get into captain consideration as he is priced somewhat high at $7,800.
Matt Breida- Contrarian Flex
Breida could be a pivot off of Singletary, as this rushing attack is somewhat unpredictable. Breida only saw 32% of the snaps last week, but if Singletary struggles, Breida could very easily see that number increase.
Buffalo Defense- Contrarian Captain/Great Flex
Mac Jones has struggled mightily on the road this season as he is averaging just 196 yards passing per game, and this matchup is going to be an incredibly difficult one as the Bills are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Bills are without Tre’Davious White, but even still this should be a difficult matchup for Jones who has never played in freezing temperatures before and the wind could be an issue for the rookie.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones- Flex if you can fit him.
There is a lot to be worried about Mac Jones on this slate as he is facing the best pass defense in the NFL (based on fantasy points allowed), he’s on the road where he has struggled this season, he’s in terrible wind conditions, and this is his first time playing in sub-freezing temperatures. The case for Mac Jones is that on a normal slate we would never even consider playing him if we had other options, but on a showdown slate, if the quarterback struggles than all of the receivers struggle too and it will just be a lower than normal slate so we have to adjust our baseline expectations.
Jones is likely a better flex play if you can afford him than a captain simply because it’s unlikely that he will be the highest scorer on this slate as while he is coming off of a 24.5 fantasy point week last week, the prior four games before that were 11.7, 8.0, 19.9, 11.4 fantasy points. This seems like it will be a low scoring, low volume passing game for Jones, which if you like the Patriots in this game, taking a wide receiver as the captain who will score the touchdown as well as get a full point for the reception is likely the way to go.
Damien Harris- Low-End Captain, Great Flex
Choosing between Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris comes down to one thing, touchdowns. While most of the numbers between the running backs are incredibly similar, Harris is out touching Stevenson 22 to 8 in the red zone and has scored six touchdowns to Stevenson’s three (two of which came with Damien Harris out). Because this is a complete committee between the two running backs, Harris’ volume does limit his upside on this slate which is why he’s a low-end captain, but if he can find the end-zone twice in this game, which is possible, he will end up as one of the top plays on this slate. The matchup is a tough one on paper, but the Bills have given up monster games to running backs before as they allowed Jonathan Taylor to score 5 touchdowns in a game, and Derrick Henry to score 3. The problem is that Harris is not at the caliber of those two players, and all other running backs total this season have just two touchdowns (1 rushing, 1 receiving). It’s an uphill battle for Harris, but as a flex play this week, he is a very good one as he still should get 12-14 touches with one of the higher chances at a touchdown.
Jacobi Meyers- Flex
The fantasy community loves playing Jacobi Meyers as seemingly every week he is highly owned for no reason other than he is consistent for 4-5 receptions per game and typically ending up between 35-55 yards which is what he has done in 8 games this season. With Meyers, you’re getting a consistency, but not a ton of upside, as he has just one touchdown in his three seasons in the NFL and that was scored at the end of a 45-7 blowout game earlier this year against Cleveland. People are going to play Meyers in the flex, but it’s best to just avoid doing that as it’s unlikely he has the upside to win you your tournaments this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson- Flex
Very similar to Damien Harris, just less touchdown upside. New England could very easily take a run heavy approach in this game.
Brandon Bolden- Cheap Punt Play
If the Patriots fall behind, looking at Brandon Bolden as a flex play could be something that you could stack with a Bills stack as Bolden is the receiving back in this offense. If the Patriots fall behind, expect a heavy dosage of Bolden and could lead to extra targets in a game that is difficult to throw in.
Kendrick Bourne- Fade
Bourne has put together a decent stretch over the last three weeks, but the price is simply too high at $8,600.
Patriots Defense- Contrarian Captain/Great Flex
Josh Allen has thrown seven interceptions over his last four games. In a windy game, Allen could very easily throw multiple interceptions in this game as the Patriots lead the NFL in interceptions this season.
|Position||Name||Salary||Projection||H-Value||Point/$||Captain or Flex|
|QB||Josh Allen||11200||23.0||40.8||2.1||Captain Only|
|WR||Stefon Diggs||10600||16.3||23.7||1.5||Flex Only|