Photo: Joseph Maiorana, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

This is a more difficult week than normal given that we only have one game to choose from. It is also made more difficult due to the amount of time and attention linebackers are able to spend working on just this one game. Thus, finding major value on any individual lines will be hard. However, there is still one way to potentially get some +EV action and that is taking advantage of game script correlations to try to find situations the odds that a certain game scenario plays out are higher than the payout multiplier. Those opportunities will be the focus this week.

Week 21 Review

• Last Week: -1
• Season Total: +3.2

Cooper Kupp’s big game turned around what would have been a rough week and helped up nearly break even. We enter the Super Bowl +3.2 units for the season and hope to end on a winning note.

Week 21 Picks

5:Bengals-Chiefs TDs (-1):

JaMarr Chase and Travis Kelce each found the end zone but we missed our 4X with Mixon being held scoreless

4: Run Games in KC: (-1)

We were on the right track here but again came up short. Joe Mixon went well over his rushing prop of 60.5 yards with 88. The Chiefs rushed for 139 yards but it was more Jerick McKinnon (65 yards) and less Clyde Edwards-Helaire (36 yards) than we needed, with Edwards-Helaire coming up 12 yards short.

3: Star WRs: (-1)

Both Tyreek Hill and JaMarr Chase had strong games but still came up short of their yardage totals.

2: Sneaky Unders: (-1)

This was a bad call, Deebo Samuel narrowly hit his receiving yard over when he broke loose for a 44-yard touchdown and Odell Beckham easily went over.

1: 49ers- Rams TDs (+3)

Cooper Kupp came through for us in a big way with two touchdowns and Deebo Samuel also found the end zone so we hit our over of 2.5 touchdowns even with Cam Akers getting shutout.

5: Better than 5%

Cooper Kupp MORE than 24.5 fantasy points
Joe Burrow MORE than 19.5 fantasy points
Matthew Stafford MORE than 20.5 fantasy points
JaMarr Chase MORE than 18.5 fantasy points
Joe Mixon MORE than 17.5 fantasy points

• Imagine this matchup was played 100 times, how many times would we end up with a shootout in which the stars from both teams hit their fantasy point overs?
• If you think that type of game script would play out more than 5 of the 100 times, then this is a positive EV prop.
• This mindset is key for this game given how tight the lines are. Our best opportunity to find some wins is to rely on correlation to improve our chances.
• In this case, the correlation is massive amongst all the players. Let’s start with Joe Burrow. If he has more than 20 fantasy points, then it is much more likely that JaMarr Chase also has a big game.

.@ByKimberleyA says she has 100% more confidence in Joe Burrow than Matthew Stafford 👀

"He walks around like he's a vet! And part of the reason you believe in this team is because of that." pic.twitter.com/XGX70VipqI

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) February 9, 2022

• While the Burrow-Mixon correlation may seem less obvious, Mixon has averaged 5.8 targets and 5.2 receptions per game over his last five outings.
• The correlation is even stronger between Burrow and Stafford. Both of these offenses have proven capable of fireworks when forced to play from behind. In either a back-and-forth shootout or a game script in which one teams jumps out to an early lead, we could see a game with big passing totals.

Matthew Stafford is (+100) to win Super Bowl MVP 👑 pic.twitter.com/cgEZQ8qxjA

— PFF Bet (@PFF_Bet) February 9, 2022

• Lastly, fun matters. This is just a fun, long-shot prop to have action on while watching the Super Bowl. We all want to see some fireworks and celebrate some big plays. This is the type of prop where one deep bomb to Kupp or one broken tackle by Chase that puts him off to the races tips the odds substantially in our favor.

4: TD 4X

More than 3.5 touchdowns combined between Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon, and JaMarr Chase

• Monkey Knife Fight changed the odds on us!
• All season, we were able to 4X our money by picking three players to combine for more than 2.5 touchdowns in a game. It has been our most profitable prop, especially when we are able to get consistent touchdown scorers like Kupp and Mixon as part of the prop.
• While the degree of difficulty has been increased, this is still a solid prop given the realistic possibility this game shoots out and the concentrated nature of both teams’ scoring offenses.
• Kupp has an even 20 touchdowns in 20 games played this season. He has caught 43% of the Rams passing touchdowns (playoffs included).

FOUR DAYS TO #SBLVI

Cooper Kupp’s monster season has continued into the playoffs as he has FOUR receiving touchdowns so far!#RamsHouse | #SuperBowl pic.twitter.com/TqqlgiKX2P

— Super Bowl LVI on NBC (@SNFonNBC) February 9, 2022

• JaMarr Chase has 14 touchdowns this season and has caught 37% of the Bengals' passing touchdowns.

Cris Collinsworth gave @Bengals rookie Ja'Marr Chase some HIGH praise prior to #SBLVI. #RuleItAll pic.twitter.com/IXxbVuqPsy

— Super Bowl LVI on NBC (@SNFonNBC) February 9, 2022

• Mixon has scored 16 touchdowns in 19 games. Aside from a short stretch midseason when he was injured, he has handled nearly all of the red zone carries for Cincinnati.

3: Burrow to Chase

Joe Burrow (+5.5) more fantasy points than Cooper Kupp
Ja’Marr Chase (+2.5) more fantasy points than Matthew Stafford

• We are going to go with a strong correlation play by basically taking the Bengals passing game over the Rams passing game.
• We are getting points on both sides of this prop, which helps make it slightly easier to go against Kupp. The Kupp (-5.5) versus Burrow half of this prop feels like the key. Burrow will need to have another big game and the Bengals will have to keep Kupp from going off.
• While no team is likely to slow down Kupp too much, the Bengals are one of the best-equipped teams in the league to do so. Slot cornerback Mike Hilton has been playing at an elite level and matches up as well as any slot in the league versus Kupp given his physicality and veteran savvy.

Bengals slot corner Mike Hilton has a great track record against the NFL’s best slot receivers, including Cooper Kupp.

“I feel like we’re the best two slots in the game. We’ll get the space to go out there and prove it. Me against him in the Super Bowl.”https://t.co/3z7JniuOjA

— Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) February 10, 2022

• We saw Hilton limit Hunter Renfrow to 8-58-0, with much of the damage coming late when the Bengals were playing more of a prevent-style defense.
• As mentioned above, Jalen Ramsey may not be tasked with shadowing Chase, which could lead to Chase having another big game.

Ja’Marr Chase with the advantage over Jalen Ramsey? 👀 pic.twitter.com/v9AntB00SU

— PFF (@PFF) February 10, 2022

• We saw Burrow and Chase dominate on the biggest stage to close out their last season together. In the final of the College Football Playoff, LSU faced a Clemson defense that was the best in the country according to SP+ (the college equivalent of DVOA). Burrow threw for 463 yards and 5 touchdowns with nearly half of those totals going to Chase (221 yards and 2 touchdowns).

That LSU connection is gonna be dangerous on Sunday 🐯

More hardware coming for Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase?

(@turbotax) pic.twitter.com/UlTtZ16rAv

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 10, 2022

2: Correlated Unders

Matthew Stafford LESS than 288.5 passing yards
Joe Burrow LESS than 280.5 passing yards

• We could go all in on a shootout and pick five overs but it also makes sense to hedge our bets a bit and look for some correlated unders with a solid chance of hitting.
• We get a strong correlation play here with one quarterback more likely to go under if the other does.
• We have seen some lower-scoring Super Bowls than many predicted in recent years. Last year’s Kansas City-Tampa Bay game was expected to be a shootout between Patrick Mahomes II and Tom Brady. Instead, Mahomes threw for just 270 yards and Brady passed for just 201.
• The last Super Bowl was a game dominated by the Tampa Bay defensive line against a subpar Kansas City unit. It is easy to envision a scenario where the Bengals' offensive line is similarly overwhelmed by Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and company.

On a scale of 1-10 what are the chances Joe Burrow has a BIG game Sunday?

"I'll give it a 3. In the playoffs we haven't seen the big game we know he can have. I believe the Rams defensive line will dictate this game. I don't see him having 350 yards and 3 TDs." — @ShannonSharpe pic.twitter.com/b1GZNwk7fO

— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) February 8, 2022

• By far the most underrated unit in this Super Bowl is the Bengals defense. Over the past three games, the Bengals have held the Raiders (225 net passing yards), Ryan Tannehill (280 net yards), and Patrick Mahomes II (243 net passing yards) in check.

I’m convinced a lot of people haven’t watched the Bengals defense during the playoffs or at all this season.

— Lindsay Patterson (@LndsPatterson) February 9, 2022

• The last defensive snap in each of Cincinnati’s playoff games was a game-changing interception.

1: Better than 5%, Part 2

Cooper Kupp LESS than 24.5 fantasy points
Joe Burrow LESS than 19.5 fantasy points
Matthew Stafford LESS than 20.5 fantasy points
JaMarr Chase LESS than 18.5 fantasy points
Joe Mixon MORE than 17.5 fantasy points

• You may be thinking…wait, is this not almost the exact opposite of the prop recommended above?
• It is but there is no contradiction in those two recommendations when you think about making picks based upon searching for +EV scenarios.
• Again, the question is whether there is a game script that would theoretically occur more than 5% of the time in which we would be likely to see fantasy point totals along these lines?
• In this case, the answer is yes. It is not hard to imagine a game in which both teams have some success running the ball and we do not get a big passing performance from either quarterback. While this may not be the most likely scenario, it is one with a better than 1-in-20 chance of occurring.
• The Bengals have been content to play a bit softer against the run this postseason to limit opposing passing offenses. Expect a similar game plan on Sunday.

The Bengals have allowed the most yards this postseason with 382 yards at a clip of 127 yards per game.

Running backs are averaging 5.7 YPC against the Bengals defense in the postseason.

— Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakDTR) February 10, 2022