Thursday Showdown Week 15

Photo: Troy Taormina, USA Today Sports

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Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Game Strategy

This is going to be a really fun Showdown slate, but a very difficult one as these are two good passing offenses facing off against two good pass defenses. The problem here is that the target share on both of these teams is fairly narrow, so finding value is going to be somewhat challenging this week. While we have had weeks the past several where you could consider taking a cheap flyer at a captain play and hoping it worked out, this week it’s going to be really difficult to do that as there simply are not guys who produce enough to be considered that low unless you’re building many lineups.

Captain Consideration:

1. Justin Herbert
2. Mike Williams
3. Tyreek Hill
4. Keenan Allen
5. Darrel Williams
6. Byron Pringle

Kansas City Chiefs

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes II- Good Flex

Patrick Mahomes II has not had the normal year that he is accustomed to having, but he is still in the top 5 in fantasy production at the quarterback position this season. The problem with Mahomes this week is that he is just too expensive at the captain position at $18,000 to reliably trust against a very good LA Chargers secondary. In their first meeting, Mahomes threw for just 260 yards, but did add in 3 touchdowns into the mix. At $12,000, he’s a much more reasonable albeit still expensive player at the flex position to pair him with a Tyreek Hill at captain or take a flyer on Byron Pringle who we will talk about a little further down.

RUNNING BACK

Clyde Edwards-Helaire- Flex Only

The matchup is a great one for Edwards-Helaire this week, but the problem here is the consistency of touches for the running back. In what should be a high scoring game, Edwards-Helaire is only seeing 40-50% of the snaps as Darrel Williams is the better pass blocking back and have him on the field for the other 30-40% of the time that the Chiefs have a running back on the field. The matchup is a strong one as the Chargers are allowing 4.7 yards-per-carry to opposing running backs this season which is the fourth-worst in the NFL.

Darrel Williams- Great Flex, Low-End Captain

Darrel Williams has a lot of things going for him in that he is on the field for 30-40% of the snaps, is on the field for a large portion of the passing plays, and is only $3,200 on a week in which salary saving is difficult to come by. Williams has topped 10 points in two consecutive games as most of his work comes through the air as he has 3 or more receptions in 8 of his last 9 games. If the Chiefs fall behind in this game, you could see a lot of Williams and at his price if he finds the end-zone he’s in captain consideration this week.

WIDE RECEIVER

Tyreek Hill- Great Captain/Flex

Tyreek Hill is one of the premiere players on this slate as he is coming off of two consecutive poor performances from his standards where he has just six catches between the two games. However, both of these performances are easily explainable in that the Chiefs had a massive lead last week in their 48-9 victory over the Raiders, and the Chiefs offense had a bad game against the Broncos defense. This is a game in which the Chiefs should look to Hill to get back to his prior form as the primary receiving in this offense and you’re getting him at a much-reduced ownership percentage this week compared to a normal week.

Byron Pringle- Punt Flex

People love snap counts on the showdown slates and understandably slow as they should equate to opportunities. However, for Pringle, those opportunities simply have not materialized for most of the season as even though he is on the field for 50% snap average since Week 7, he has only had two games where he has caught multiple passes. At $2,600, he’s a pure punt play and one of the few options that will actually be on the field under $3,000 this week.

OTHER TARGETS

Harrison Butker- Flex

In a high scoring game, if you want a cheap Chiefs stack, you can potentially take Butker as a punt play as he’s been one of the best kickers in the league.

Travis Kelce- Flex in Chiefs stacks, possible fade

Travis Kelce is a tough one, as the price is decent at just $8,400, but he is likely going to be extremely popular this week due to his 104 yard performance back in Week 3 against this Chargers team. The problem is that paying $8,600 for a tight end is difficult as he has topped 100 yards just once since that Week 3 performance. Early on in the season, the Chargers were struggling against tight ends as they gave up the 104 yards to Kelce and then 149 yards and a touchdown to David Njoku two weeks later, but since that point have been very good against the tight end position not allowing a tight end to top 70 yards as Drue Tranquill has evolved into one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers

QUARTERBACK

Justin Herbert- Great Captain/Flex

This is a slate where all of the Chargers seem to be too cheap and Herbert is no different. Herbert is the third-highest scoring fantasy quarterback this season ahead of Patrick Mahomes II yet is somehow $1,200 cheaper than Mahomes. Over his last four games, Herbert has thrown for 275 yards or more and has topped 300 yards in three of those four contests. In their first meeting, Herbert tore apart this Chiefs defense throwing for 286 yards and four touchdowns on his way to a 30.9 DraftKings performance, and with his rushing upside has enough of a ceiling at a reduced price compared to Mahomes to pay off this week. Deciding which Chargers player to take at captain is going to be tough as Herbert, Allen, and Williams are all viable based on their price.

RUNNING BACK

Austin Ekeler- Fade

Austin Ekeler is the fade of this week this week simply because he doesn’t seem to be 100% healthy. Ekeler was questionable heading into this game and while it is being reported that he will play, he is almost certainly not going to be 100% healthy and news has broken that he won’t receive his full complement of snaps.

WIDE RECEIVER

Keenan Allen- Good Captain/Great Flex

When building a showdown lineup, you really need to think about the game script that it would take for your lineup to win or perform well. For Keenan Allen, he’s unlikely to be the top captain if this game is a shootout as he has topped 25 DraftKings points just once this season. However, what you get from Keenan Allen is consistency as he has 10 or more targets in five of his last six game with the only game he didn’t being a game in which the Chargers blew out the Bengals. Allen becomes the top captain play if this game is a lower scoring game than we think. If it is a 21-17 type game, and Allen scores a touchdown with all of his receptions, he could very easily come out on top this week.

Mike Williams- Captain Only

DraftKings is begging people to take Mike Williams as their captain this week at just $7,400 as he is absolutely perfect for the “Captain Only” designation. On the season, Mike Williams has topped 20 DraftKings points in five games this season but he has done it only once since Week 5. If this game is a shootout, Williams seemingly could be in line for a big role especially with Austin Ekeler out as he absolutely tore apart this Chiefs defense in Week 3 as he had 122 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Chiefs secondary is a good one, but Williams has shown an ability against Charvarius Ward that he can win the matchups and should be coming in with a lot of confidence this week.

OTHER TARGETS

Justin Jackson- Flex

If you believe Austin Ekeler is more banged up than is being reported, Justin Jackson could have a lot of involvement this week. Jackson is a limited running back, but at just $2,000, is too cheap if he is going to see the 8-10 touches that he has seen over the last two weeks.