Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY, DECEMBER 19th @ 10 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Arizona | Detroit | -13 | 47 | 30 | ««« | ««« | «« |
Buffalo | Carolina | -14 | 44 | 29 | «« | ««« | ««« |
Tampa Bay | New Orleans | -11 | 45.5 | 28.25 | «« | ««« | «« |
San Francisco | Atlanta | -9 | 47.5 | 28.25 | « | «« | « |
Dallas | NY Giants | -11.5 | 44.5 | 28 | « | «« | «« |
Kansas City | LA Chargers | -3 | 52 | 27.5 | « | « | |
LA Rams | Seattle | -6.5 | 45.5 | 26 | « | « | « |
Miami | NY Jets | -10 | 41.5 | 25.75 | ««« | ||
Green Bay | Baltimore | -7 | 43.5 | 25.25 | « | ||
Minnesota | Chicago | -6 | 44 | 25 | « | ||
LA Chargers | Kansas City | 3 | 52 | 24.5 | |||
Philadelphia | Washington | -6.5 | 42 | 24.25 | «« | ||
Indianapolis | New England | -2.5 | 45.5 | 24 | |||
Denver | Cincinnati | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
Pittsburgh | Tennessee | -1.5 | 43.5 | 22.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Houston | -5 | 39.5 | 22.25 | «« | ||
Cleveland | Las Vegas | -3 | 41 | 22 | « | ||
New England | Indianapolis | 2.5 | 45.5 | 21.5 | |||
Tennessee | Pittsburgh | 1.5 | 43.5 | 21 | |||
Cincinnati | Denver | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
Seattle | LA Rams | 6.5 | 45.5 | 19.5 | |||
Atlanta | San Francisco | 9 | 47.5 | 19.25 | |||
Chicago | Minnesota | 6 | 44 | 19 | |||
Las Vegas | Cleveland | 3 | 41 | 19 | « | ||
Baltimore | Green Bay | 7 | 43.5 | 18.25 | |||
Washington | Philadelphia | 6.5 | 42 | 17.75 | |||
Houston | Jacksonville | 5 | 39.5 | 17.25 | |||
New Orleans | Tampa Bay | 11 | 45.5 | 17.25 | |||
Detroit | Arizona | 13 | 47 | 17 | |||
NY Giants | Dallas | 11.5 | 44.5 | 16.5 | |||
NY Jets | Miami | 10 | 41.5 | 15.75 | |||
Carolina | Buffalo | 14 | 44 | 15 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
- Running Back: James Conner/Chase Edmonds (Cardinals), Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers), Zack Moss/Devin Singletary (Bills)
- Receivers: Christian Kirk/A.J. Green/Rondale Moore (Cardinals)
- Defense: Bills, Dolphins
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Josh Allen (Bills), Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Jeff Wilson (49ers), Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Stefon Diggs/Cole Beasley/Emmanuel Sanders/Dawson Knox (Bills), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Cowboys, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Eagles
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Matthew Stafford (Rams)
- Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Darrel Williams (Chiefs), Darrell Henderson/Sony Michel (Rams)
- Receivers: Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk/George Kittle (49ers), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), Tyreek Hill/Byron Pringle/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Cooper Kupp/Odell Beckham/Tyler Higbee (Rams)
- Defense: Packers, Browns, Vikings, 49ers, Rams