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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY OCTOBER 15th @ 5 AM (EST)
Kansas City | Washington | -7 | 54 | 30.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Tampa Bay | Philadelphia | -7 | 52.5 | 29.75 | ««« | ««« | |
Buffalo | Tennessee | -5.5 | 53.5 | 29.5 | ««« | ««« | |
LA Rams | NY Giants | -8.5 | 48.5 | 28.5 | ««« | ««« | « |
Dallas | New England | -3.5 | 50.5 | 27 | «« | «« | |
Baltimore | LA Chargers | -2.5 | 51.5 | 27 | «« | «« | |
Indianapolis | Houston | -10 | 43 | 26.5 | « | «« | «« |
Cleveland | Arizona | -3.5 | 48.5 | 26 | « | « | |
Cincinnati | Detroit | -3.5 | 47 | 25.25 | « | « | |
Miami | Jacksonville | -3 | 47 | 25 | « | « | |
Green Bay | Chicago | -6 | 44 | 25 | |||
LA Chargers | Baltimore | 2.5 | 51.5 | 24.5 | |||
Tennessee | Buffalo | 5.5 | 53.5 | 24 | |||
Denver | Las Vegas | -4 | 44 | 24 | |||
Minnesota | Carolina | -2.5 | 45.5 | 24 | |||
Pittsburgh | Seattle | -5 | 43 | 24 | « | ||
Washington | Kansas City | 7 | 54 | 23.5 | |||
New England | Dallas | 3.5 | 50.5 | 23.5 | |||
Philadelphia | Tampa Bay | 7 | 52.5 | 22.75 | |||
Arizona | Cleveland | 3.5 | 48.5 | 22.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Miami | 3 | 47 | 22 | |||
Detroit | Cincinnati | 3.5 | 47 | 21.75 | |||
Carolina | Minnesota | 2.5 | 45.5 | 21.5 | |||
Las Vegas | Denver | 4 | 44 | 20 | |||
NY Giants | LA Rams | 8.5 | 48.5 | 20 | |||
Chicago | Green Bay | 6 | 44 | 19 | |||
Seattle | Pittsburgh | 5 | 43 | 19 | |||
Houston | Indianapolis | 10 | 43 | 16.5 |
Bye Weeks: Atlanta, New Orleans, NY Jets, San Francisco
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Josh Allen (Bills), Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Matthew Stafford (Rams)
- Running Back: Darrel Williams (Chiefs), Devin Singletary/Zack Moss (Bills), Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers), Darrell Henderson (Rams)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Stefon Diggs/Emmanuel Sanders/Cole Beasley/Dawson Knox (Bills), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Antonio Brown/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Van Jefferson/Tyler Higbee (Rams)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard (Cowboys), Latavius Murray (Ravens), Jonathan Taylor (Colts)
- Receivers: Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), Marquise Brown/Sammy Watkins/Mark Andrews (Ravens)
- Defense: Colts
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Baker Mayfield (Browns), Carson Wentz (Colts), Joe Burrow (Bengals), Jacoby Brissett (Dolphins)
- Running Back: Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (Browns), Joe Mixon (Bengals), Myles Gaskin (Dolphins)
- Receivers: Odell Beckham/Donovan Peoples-Jones/David Njoku (Browns), Michael Pittman/Zach Pascal/Paris Campbell/Mo Alie-Cox (Colts), Tyler Boyd/Tee Higgins/JaMarr Chase (Bengals), DeVante Parker/Jaylen Waddle/Mike Gesicki (Dolphins)
- Defense: Rams, Steelers