Wide receiver points per target is a highly volatile stat from year to year, with performance in one year not predictive of performance the following season. For example, strong performance in one year does not predict strong performance in the statistic the next season. Likewise, poor performance in one year does not predict poor performance in the next season. In 2020, wide receivers with 50 or more targets averaged 1.87 PPR points per target. Players who significantly underperformed this number are candidates to bounce back the following year. Below is a group of five wide receivers who significantly underperformed the average points per target in 2020 and could be bounce-back candidates in 2021.
A.J. Green’s 2020 season was a disappointment. His 1.10 points per target were the worst of any wide receiver with at least 50 targets. Green has largely been written off as a declining player, but he saw an 18.3% target percentage and an average depth of target of 13.7, 23rd in the league, two signs there may be production left in the tank for Green. The problems could be attributable to other factors than Green, as only 60.6% of his targets were catchable, outside the top 100 of the position. Likewise, Green’s 2% touchdown rate is a potential area where he could rebound. There is little in the way of preventing Green from securing a WR2 role in Arizona and rehabilitate his production profile if he can stay healthy, largely based on better luck.
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