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Wide receiver points per target is a highly volatile stat from year to year, with performance in one year not predictive of performance the following season. For example, strong performance in one year does not predict strong performance in the statistic the next season. Likewise, poor performance in one year does not predict poor performance in the next season. In 2020, wide receivers with 50 or more targets averaged 1.87 PPR points per target. Players who significantly overperformed this number are candidates for regression the following year, largely because of touchdown rate. Wide receivers with at least 50 targets in 2020 saw a touchdown rate of 5.5%. Below is a group of six wide receivers who significantly overperformed the average points per target in 2020 and are regression candidates in 2021.
Will Fuller
Will Fuller was the leading points per target performer (2.49) in 2020 and finished as WR32 in only 11 games. Through 12 weeks, Fuller was WR8 before he missed the rest of the season with a suspension. There is some sign Fuller can produce well above expectation, with seasons of 2.26, 2.36, and 1.88 points per target during his career, but expect some regression in 2021, particularly because Fuller had a touchdown rate of 10.5%, a notable improvement over his career touchdown rate of 7.2%.
Davante Adams finished as WR1 despite only playing 14 games. His finish was based on his 2.47 points per target, second only behind Fuller. The points per target were fueled by a touchdown rate of 12.3%, second behind only Adam Thielen. Adams’s 2020 season was a perfect mix for an elite season, with 13.7% of his targets coming in the red zone, ranking second behind only Sammy Watkins, and Adams converting 13 of his 20 red-zone targets for touchdowns, a remarkable and completely unsustainable performance. Much of the outlook of Adams will be determined by the status of Aaron Rodgers, but even if Rodgers returns, Adams should expect healthy per target scoring regression. If he puts together a full, healthy season, Adams’s target volume could offset his regression, allowing him to post an elite seasonal finish.
A.J. Brown has been a point-per-target monster in his career. In 2019, Brown saw 2.44 points per target which he followed up with a 2.41 points per target figure in 2020. Brown has 9.5% and 10.9% touchdown rates through his two seasons. His touchdown rate is likely unsustainable, particularly because only 8 of his 106 targets came in the red zone in 2020. Without a significant rise in targets, Brown’s career could level off in the mid WR2 type range if touchdown regression occurs.
Adam Thielen has seen a drop-off in targets in recent years, with a reduction from 142 (2017) and 153 (2018) to 48 in 2019 (10 games) and 108 in 2020 (15 games). Curiously, the drop in targets did not result in a drop in seasonal finish. In 2017, Thielen finished as WR10, which he followed up with a WR8 finish in 2018. After missing 6 games in 2019, he finished as WR8 in 2020, but this is largely a result of unsustainable efficiency. Thielen’s touchdown rate of 13.2% led the league and boosted Thielen to an unsustainably high 2.36 points per target. With Justin Jefferson on the other side of the offense and Minnesota ranking 26th in the league in designed pass play rate, Thielen will struggle to rebound in target volume. A significant falloff in fantasy finish will be met with narratives he has fallen off the age cliff. Still, such a result will actually be part of a broader trend of decline masqueraded by his high touchdown rate in 2020.
Tyreek Hill is probably an outlier in points per target. Hill has had 2.17 receiving points per target throughout his career, with finishes between 2.1 and 2.3 in the prior four seasons before finishing with 2.33 points per target in 2020. The match between Hill and Patrick Mahomes II has shown to be far above the league average in points per target and should be a sign Hill is one of the least likely to plummet in target efficiency.
Mike Evans has a career of 1.82 points per target, with 2.08, 1.96, and 2.28 points per target in the past three seasons. His WR11 finish in 2020 was fueled by a 12% touchdown rate with 13% of his targets in the red zone. Evans was plagued by injury in 2020 that he could play through, which may have resulted in a career-low 6.8 targets per game. Evans has averaged 8.9 targets per game in his career, and growth toward that workload should offset the expected reduction in points per target efficiency in 2021.
