Wide receiver points per target is a highly volatile stat from year to year, with performance in one year not predictive of performance the following season. For example, strong performance in one year does not predict strong performance in the statistic the next season. Likewise, poor performance in one year does not predict poor performance in the next season. In 2020, wide receivers with 50 or more targets averaged 1.87 PPR points per target. Players who significantly overperformed this number are candidates for regression the following year, largely because of touchdown rate. Wide receivers with at least 50 targets in 2020 saw a touchdown rate of 5.5%. Below is a group of six wide receivers who significantly overperformed the average points per target in 2020 and are regression candidates in 2021.
Will Fuller V was the leading points per target performer (2.49) in 2020 and finished as WR32 in only 11 games. Through 12 weeks, Fuller was WR8 before he missed the rest of the season with a suspension. There is some sign Fuller can produce well above expectation, with seasons of 2.26, 2.36, and 1.88 points per target during his career, but expect some regression in 2021, particularly because Fuller had a touchdown rate of 10.5%, a notable improvement over his career touchdown rate of 7.2%.
Davante Adams finished as WR1 despite only playing 14 games. His finish was based on his 2.47 points per target, second only behind Fuller. The points per target were fueled by a touchdown rate of 12.3%, second behind only Adam Thielen. Adams’s 2020 season was a perfect mix for an elite season, with 13.7% of his targets coming in the red zone, ranking second behind only Sammy Watkins, and Adams converting 13 of his 20 red-zone targets for touchdowns, a remarkable and completely unsustainable performance. Much of the outlook of Adams will be determined by the status of Aaron Rodgers, but even if Rodgers returns, Adams should expect healthy per target scoring regression. If he puts together a full, healthy season, Adams’s target volume could offset his regression, allowing him to post an elite seasonal finish.
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