An important aspect of fantasy football is getting ahead of the curve in player values. We've listed and highlighted some players who show a change in value and lets you know what to do with them in Week 2's "Three Up, Three Down" article.
Three Up
Brian Robinson Jr could be back as early as Week 5. So if you think that Gibson’s Week 1 performance was due to Robinson’s absence, at best, you might be able to sell high. But there’s reason to think that Gibson’s usage in Week 1 could signify things to come. The eight targets he puled against the Jaguars were a career-high for Gibson, a former college wide receiver. NFL pundits have long wondered why Gibson hasn’t been utilized more as a receiver, considering it’s one of his biggest strengths. Not only did he pull the receiving volume, but he was effective with it, boasting 10.3 yards per reception. After adding his 14 carries, Gibson’s 21 touches tied with Derrick Henry for the eighth-most in Week 1. His receiving work doesn’t appear to be flukey either, as Gibson saw 30 passing snaps to McKissic’s 22. For reference, McKissic out-snapped Gibson 157 to 137 in games where both backs were healthy last year. As a rookie, Gibson finished as the RB13 in PPR scoring. Last year, he was the RB10. Our pre-draft ADP had Gibson going off the board as RB27. Perhaps fantasy managers overreacted to rumors of his demise. There’s still some concern about what Gibson’s workload could look like when Robinson returns to the lineup, but you can confidently fire up Gibson as a high-end RB2 until then.
After Cam Akers’ awful showing on Thursday Night Football, many saw that as a precursor for James Robinson. An Achilles injury has proved to be a severe hurdle for NFL running backs to return from. Although we saw it last year with DOnta Foreman, he was three years removed from his injury before finally breaking out. With Robinson suffering his injury less than nine months ago, he was expected to be a non-factor in Week 1. Well, he saw twice as many touches as backfield mate Travis Etienne. He punched in two touchdowns and finished as the RB11 in PPR scoring on the week. Etienne is recovering from an injury of his own, and that might explain his limited role. Etienne was overthrown while wide open in the red zone and had a brutal drop on what would have been a walk-in touchdown. But the likely scenario is that we’re looking at a committee in Jacksonville. Historically, head coach Doug Pederson has implemented a backfield-by-committee approach. Because of uncertainty about Robinson's health, Etienne projected for a much more significant role. But it’s time to adjust those sliders and move more projected work to Robinson. While it’s entirely too early to panic on Etienne, Robinson’s outing lends plenty of reason to bump him up in rest-of-season rankings.
I’m not ready to crown Thomas as back in the hyperbolic sense of the word. I don’t know if we’ll ever see a 1,700-yard season from the now 29-year-old wide receiver. But his usage and production in Week 1 were both very promising. Jarvis Landry outpaced Thomas in targets, yards, and receptions. But Thomas showcased his abilities as a contested-catch specialist by scoring on both of his red-zone looks during crucial moments in the fourth quarter. Considering this was just his sixth start since 2019, there’s reason to expect brighter days. Thomas drew a 23.5-percent target share and converted both of his red-zone looks. That will help earn Jameis Winston’s trust. Sunday’s game was just Winston’s eighth start for the Saints in three years, and the first time he’s played with Thomas. Although Thomas was pushed down draft boards due to his injury history, he didn’t show any signs of lingering issues in Week 1’s win. Expect him to solidify his role as New Orleans’ WR1 over the course of the season.
Three Down
The weather in Chicago was certainly an issue. Despite the downpour and soggy field conditions, Justin Fields completed a pair of touchdowns in the second half to secure the win. Fair or not, Lance and Fields will be compared to one another through every stage of their careers. And facing off against each other in Week 1 of their sophomore campaigns, the similarities and differences were on display early. Lance’s 46.4-percent completion percentage was the worst of any quarterback in Week 1. Despite a 31-yard catch-and-run by Brandon Aiyuk, Lance finished the day with just 5.9 yards per attempt. And despite seeing more rushing attempts than any other quarterback, his 54 rushing yards came in as fifth-most. The fear with Lance isn’t that he won’t put up fantasy points. Even after this horrendous outing, he still finished the day with 10.96. The concern is that after Seattle in Week 2, the 49ers face off against the Broncos and Rams. If the 49ers suddenly slide to 1-3, there’s genuine concern that Jimmy Garoppolo could step in. Lance has the tools to turn things around and live up to his offseason hype. But until he can put it together over a complete game, it’s probably best to keep him stashed on your bench.
Patriots Running Backs
Under Josh McDaniels, running backs in New England typically had defined roles. Last year, Damien Harris got the early-down and goal-line work. James White was locked in as the receiving back. Behind Harris was Rhamondre Stevenson, and behind White was Brandon Bolden. It was reasonably easy to predict game scripts and know who to start on a weekly basis. Well, in Week 1, we saw a fairly even split between Harris and Stevenson and just enough of Ty Montgomery to make this backfield a fantasy nightmare. Harris saw nine carries and three targets, while Stevenson saw eight and two. Montgomery gobbled up four targets and scored the lone touchdown between the corps of running backs. If you’re hoping that snap counts will give us a clearer indication of what to expect, Harris saw 22 snaps, Montgomery saw 21, and Stevenson saw 14. Unless there’s a drastic shakeup to the Patriots’ running back room, you cannot confidently put any of them into your fantasy lineup.
Watkins and Week 1 boom games have breached laughable status at this point. Over the last three years, Watkins has averaged 27.3 fantasy points per game in Week 1 outings and just 7.2 per game over the rest of the year. With Allen Lazard inactive and the Packers receiver room having seemingly no one else available, the stars were aligning for a big Sammy Watkins game. But he finished with just three targets on 18 scoreless yards. Rookie Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs each saw more targets than Watkins, as did Robert Tonyan Jr, Aaron Jones, and A.J. Dillon. Once Lazard returns from injury, Watkins is likely relegated to the bench and out of fantasy relevance. Watkins might have a few touchdowns by the end of the season, but it’s unlikely that he’ll ever be consistent enough to plug into your starting lineup.
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