If You're Drafting this Weekend on Underdog

Dan Hindery's If You're Drafting this Weekend on Underdog Dan Hindery Published 07/29/2022

We will analyze the latest news, ADP movement, and context you need to prepare for your upcoming Underdog best ball drafts. The firehose of training camp news has been turned on, and the key to putting together strong teams is sifting through the deluge of information to get to the nuggets that matter.

Here are the topics we will discuss in-depth this week:

  1. Making sense of the news out of Tampa Bay
  2. The massive upside of Michael Thomas
  3. The Buffalo wide receiver to target
  4. The rise of Collins in Houston
  5. Market ADP inefficiencies in Denver

Buccaneers Wide Receivers

There are a lot of moving pieces in the Tampa Bay receiving corps. First came news that Chris Godwin was cleared to participate in training camp. While the news initially caused Godwin’s stock to soar, there has been some further clarification that should temper enthusiasm slightly. While Godwin has been cleared to practice, it does not mean he is a full go or a lock for Week 1.

The safe approach is not to get too aggressive in targeting ahead of his current ADP (60.6), given that there is still a real risk he will not be back to full speed early in the season. However, if you are drafting in a larger-field tournament, it is worth remembering the following:

  1. You are drafting for upside and should embrace ambitious situations where uncertainty allows you to get a high-end player later in the draft than he would normally be available.
  2. There is a huge premium on late-season production after the initial 14-week first round completes, making players like Godwin, who should be peaking late in the year, especially valuable.

The other big news out of Tampa was the free agent signing of Julio Jones to a one-year deal worth $6M plus incentives. While Jones is likely to be the fourth receiver for the Buccaneers, that is a healthier deal than is typical for a backup. The financial value and Jones’ pedigree make clear that Tampa Bay at least believes there is potential for him to play a key role. Jones is the biggest Underdog riser this week, with his ADP going from 190 to 165. Expect him to continue to go earlier in drafts as we get closer to the season. If you are drafting this weekend, take advantage of the discount compared to what you will likely have to pay for him come September.

Fournette slims down

Sticking in Tampa Bay, there has been understandable concern about Fournette, given reports he had been up to almost 260 pounds during OTAs. While Fournette could probably stand to lose a few more pounds, the fact he showed up to training camp weighing in under 245 pounds and reportedly looking good should ease nerves.

If you are drafting this weekend, draft Fournette with confidence anywhere in the back half of the second round.

Michael Thomas stock up

The last time we saw a healthy Michael Thomas, he put together a record-setting season with 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and 9 touchdowns. In terms of upside, there is arguably nobody close to Thomas going outside of the Top 6 rounds of drafts. We have seen it. Granted, that monster 2019 season was long ago, and many are understandably wary of his health. However, early indications from New Orleans training camp are that Thomas is back and has a chance to be again the guy who dominated the NFL in 2019.

We know the potential reward here is massive. It is easy to argue that the risk is relatively low now we have seen him back on the field. He could have a future injury, like any other player, but from a skill perspective, Thomas is as proven a commodity as there is in the NFL. If things continue on the current track, Thomas will end up going in the fourth or fifth round of late drafts. If you are drafting this weekend, take advantage of the discount and make him a priority target ahead of his late-7th round ADP.

Buffalo receiver shake-up?

We know that Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are in line to be the top two receivers for the Bills. The assumption all offseason has been that Jamison Crowder was likely to step into the starting slot role vacated by Cole Beasley. However, early reports from camp have Isaiah McKenzie as the most likely candidate to fill that role. Not only has Crowder been sidelined by injury, but McKenzie has reportedly been a consistent playmaker, picking up right where he left off in 2020.

McKenzie is the second-biggest riser over the last week, with his ADP going from 204 to 193. Expect his rise to continue. He is still going off the board almost 50 picks later than Crowder, which is hard to justify based on the early news out of training camp. The market has already told us that Buffalo’s starting slot is worthy of a selection in the top 12 rounds. As the crowd slowly adjusts to the news that McKenzie is likely to occupy that slot, he stands out as an outstanding value four rounds later than Crowder for those drafting this weekend who have been keeping up on the news.

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.

An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Best Ball leagues. If this league is not a Best Ball league, you can edit your leagues here.

Join Now

Nico Collins Rising

John Metchie was drafted late (ADP of 204) before the news that he will need to miss the season while recovering from Leukemia. Nico Collins was already favored over Metchie to be the second target behind Brandin Cooks, but this clarifies his ascension to a key role. Collins is one of the week’s biggest ADP winners as he continues to climb higher in drafts with an ADP that has now fallen under 160 for the first time this season. Even after the recent rise, Collins is still a nice value 14th round, given his solid floor and upside should Davis Mills make a second-year leap.

Footballguys’ own James Brimacombe has been on Collins and has built up a lot of positive ADP equity from drafting Collins before he became more popular. Expect his ADP to continue to rise. Also, shameless plug…check out our new Underdog Exposure Exploration tool to see which players you have been able to get at the best values.

Keeping a close eye on Denver

Last year’s fantasy MVP was Cooper Kupp. He was a late-third-round fantasy pick who ended up having a breakout season after his team made a huge upgrade at quarterback. Perhaps no team in the NFL is more improved at quarterback than the Broncos, who have gone from Drew Lock to Russell Wilson. The parallels are there for Courtland Sutton, who has an almost identical ADP right now to Kupp’s last year. All reports out of Denver indicate Sutton is the top target in this offense, and he makes for a strong target in the late third round.

Where things get more interesting and where there appears to be a major market inefficiency is with the WR2 spot for the Broncos. While Jerry Jeudy continues to be drafted in the Top 50 overall, reports out of Denver (including from our own Cecil Lammey) have Jeudy continuing to battle inconsistency. Meanwhile, Tim Patrick is emerging as a go-to option for Russell Wilson when plays break down. This is one of those situations where ideas of player pedigree can be overly sticky. We are talking about players with multiple NFL seasons under their belt. Their NFL draft capital is no longer a relevant consideration.

If you are drafting this weekend, don’t overpay for Jeudy. Instead, target Patrick a full five rounds later.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Share This Article

More by Dan Hindery

 

Dynasty Trade Value Chart: May

Dan Hindery

Long-term player values for dynasty leagues

05/02/25 Read More
 

Dynasty Trade Value Chart: April

Dan Hindery

Long-Term Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

04/04/25 Read More
 

Stock Up, Stock Down: How the NFL Combine Moved Rookie ADP

Dan Hindery

Post-Combine ADP movement in Underdog Best Ball Drafts

03/10/25 Read More
 

Dynasty Trade Value Chart: March

Dan Hindery

Dynasty trade value can fluctuate; our Dan Hindery has this month's update for your dynasty leagues.

03/05/25 Read More
 

Underdog Pick Em: Super Bowl

Dan Hindery

Dan Hindery looks at the top Underdog Player Props to target in the Super Bowl

02/08/25 Read More
 

Dynasty Trade Value Chart: February

Dan Hindery

Analyzing Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

02/04/25 Read More