The Dynasty Trading Post: Week 3

Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly in example and completed dynasty trades.

QUARTERBACKS

Theme of the Week: Jimmy Garoppolo, Cooper Rush, Jared Goff

Jimmy Garoppolo takes over the 49ers after Trey Lance's season-ending ankle injury in Week 2. Once under center, Garoppolo fostered a high-floor outcome to the 49ers passing game and reasons for optimism in future weeks. Garoppolo was already undervalued in dynasty as a quarterback with an extended profile of NFL starts and being in a backup role at present. Now, being thrust back into the 2022 starting role, Garoppolo offers a rest-of-season outlook for QB2 production with QB1 moments for premium format teams in need of a boost or depth.

Cooper Rush fell flat in his Week 1 relief appearance when Dallas overall was overwhelmed by a dominant (two weekly data points now) Tampa Bay defense. Rush is a possible buy or sell candidate depending on individual league market dynamics with starts in front of him (TBD on Dak Prescott's recovery and arrival date back under center) and Michael Gallup likely back in the lineup soon. The emergence of Noah Brown in Week 2 does not hurt either.

Jared Goff and the Lions' passing game (and offense overall) have been sneaky strong through two weeks. Goff is fourth in the NFL in passing touchdowns and has navigated pressure well. D.J. Chark has untapped upside beyond Amon-Ra St.Brown's torrid season start, and T.J. Hockenson has yet to produce much. Goff, like Carson Wentz, was largely left for dynasty dead this past offseason, and both are producing within friendly offensive confines early in the season.

• Key trade idea: Treylon Burks for Garoppolo

If selling Garoppolo to a team who just lost Trey Lance or is otherwise light at quarterback, aim high and seek slow-starting profiles. If a May 2022 trade, this is Garoppolo for a mid-1st. Even in August or September, this is Garoppolo for a shade-later 1st. Bolster wide receiver, or a receiver plus a pick, with trading Garoppolo to a team in need.

• Key trade idea: 23 2nd for Rush

This is the max to expect from the market if selling Rush. The negative with Rush compared to say Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett is Rush's expected starts are significantly lower. The typical buy-sell line is more of a 23 3rd than a 2nd. If a buyer, explore a tempered veteran or Garoppolo for a 2nd or less rather than Rush for a similar or slightly cheaper price.

• Key trade idea: Cordarrelle Patterson, 23 2nd for Goff

RUNNING BACKS

Theme of the Week: Darrell Henderson, Leonard Fournette

Darrell Henderson is an exploration sell this week as Cam Akers, even without a big boxscore, encrouched on Henderson's clear Week 1 starting role in Week 2. Also, the Rams are anemic in HLO score, which severely limits running back upside. If Akers continues to eat into Henderson's touches in Week 3, the sell window for Henderson will largely be gone and he is just another committee (or primary backup) running back.

Leonard Fournette has struggled in 2022, but mostly from a surprisingly low HLO score, especially for a Tom Brady-led team. Tampa Bay is 25th in running back targets and 21st in goal-line carries. Also, Tampa Bay has been far from full strength with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones all missing time through just two games. Fournette has a workhorse role on a team typically supplying ample strong opportunities to the position. Buy the dip.

• Key trade idea: 23 2nd for Henderson

The best use of Henderson is in a consolidation trade of 2-for-1 or 3-for-2. An outright pick has a future 2nd as the best outcome post-Week 2. The market drops to a 3rd if Akers rises to the lead role.

• Key trade idea: Kyle Trask, Rhamondre Stevenson, 23 2nd for Fournette

WIDE RECEIVERS

Theme of the Week: Brandon Aiyuk, Jakobi Meyers

The change from Trey Lance to Jimmy Garoppolo is a graphic shot in the arm for the upside of Aiyuk. His market share of 32% targets and 45% air yards in Week 2 point to an elite ceiling, yet he can be had for non-elite prices.

Jakobi Meyers has been dominant in target and air yards market share. He is the lone bright spot for a Patriots offense struggling for more than fantasy depth plays. While the cost of a WR3/4, Meyers can produce like a WR2 for fantasy lineups with WR1 moments.

• Key trade idea: 23 2nd, 24 2nd for Aiyuk

Aiyuk is the perfect addition to a wide receiver corps as he has elite upside but also blends his age well for a window of contending with insulation. Typically those profiles cost at least a Round 1 pick. In this case, try to acquire Aiyuk for a 2nd+ and keep the 1st.

• Key trade idea: Damien Harris for Meyers

TIGHT ENDS

Theme of the Week: Evan Engram

Evan Engram is the low-cost tight end fix. Many in dynasty leagues are not happy with their two-week output from their projected starter. This includes notables like Mike Gesicki, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, Irv Smith, and others. Engram's utilization has been rock solid, however, with a 27% target share in Week 2 and is TE13 through two weeks. Other than Christian Kirk, Engram is the most bankable aspect in the Jacksonville passing game. The stink of Engram disappointing dynasty teams for years with the Giants is still hanging on him like a cloud. As with his number change (now 17) and new team, this is a new era for Engram.

• Key trade idea: 23 3rd for Engram

Unless making a splash trade for Mark Andrews or George Kittle, aim for a late-2nd or even a 3rd as a trading chip to address tight end. The caveat is they must be firmly better than the waiver wire streamer options. In this case, Engram offers far more sustainable upside for the rest of this season with the profile to earn more starting years after a one-year contract in Jacksonville to prove his worth (and health)

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