Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches 'empty calorie' opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for the high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.

• 2022 RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
• HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score
• GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
• TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets

THE GOOD

Jets

The Jets were one of the under-the-radar teams with a strong HLO score in 2021 (fourth overall, top-eight in both goal-line and target categories). While there were no goal-line carries in Week 1, Michael Carter and Breece Hall combined for 19 targets, a massive number to make both flex (or better) PPR plays. It was a true committee split in snaps, and with the Jets likely trailing more weeks than not, this is a big-time HLO offense for both players. If either misses time or Breece Hall takes over later in the season, there is quality RB1 fantasy production here.

Bengals

Joe Mixon had a career year in 2021 despite Cincinnati being 25th in HLO. Mixon was a workhorse and projects as such in 2022 as well. If Week 1's HLO continues for Mixon, high RB1 production is firmly in play. They were No.2 in the NFL in targets and goal-line carries. This also points to more upside than most assume for Samaje Perine if Mixon were to miss time. Perine is available in a decent number of leagues.

Broncos

Another team with top-five rankings in both goal-line and target categories is the Broncos. Javonte Williams' market share increased from 2021, but Melvin Gordon is a valuable RB2 if Williams is out in future weeks. Denver was middle of the road in 2021, and there is a big ceiling here in 2022.

Colts

The Colts have been top-three overall in 2020 and 2021, with the trend continuing in Week 1 with a fourth overall ranking. Jonathan Taylor is involved plenty in the passing game, and Nyheim Hines would project to be even more involved from a market share perspective if Taylor were out. A darkhorse deep league stash is Deon Jackson, the RB3, but could see the most carries if Taylor misses time.

Eagles

Philadelphia saw the most goal-line carries in the NFL in Week 1 and have been middle of the pack in targets the past two seasons and last week. Miles Sanders was the lead back in market share and was largely ignored by drafters this season. Strong upside is here with their offensive uptick and, most importantly, point-blank opportunities near the end zone. With Kenny Gainwell involved in the passing game, the target upside of Sanders is more limited than double-digit touchdown potential.

THE BAD

Steelers

Pittsburgh was 30th in goal-line carries last year and 31st in Week 1 targets. These are clear limitations to the upside and only Najee Harris being a never-leave-the-field player a year ago kept him in the Top 10 for fantasy. Already working through an injury, Harris is a watch player for a lower floor than expected in the coming weeks.

Panthers

Christian McCaffrey is a key watch for the next couple of weeks. The expectation is Carolina would be near the top in targets due to optimizing McCaffrey in space. However, they were 27th in Week 1. They were top-10 in the category in each of the previous three seasons. Monitor this backfield closely, as McCaffrey's elite ceiling is a question mark without strong target opportunities.

Buccaneers

An elite HLO offense last year, Week 1 has Tampa Bay 25th overall and 28th in targets. It is probably an aberration week, but Leonard Fournette has a huge ceiling based on previous HLO usage. Like Carolina, this is one to monitor in the next few weeks.

Saints

Alvin Kamara, like McCaffrey and Fournette, is a key watch player. The Saints have been an elite target offense in recent years, but 23rd in Week 1. Monitor Kamara's receiving involvement closely with a much improved wide receiver corps from last season.

THE UGLY

Rams

The Rams have been 22nd or lower each of the past three seasons. The trend continued in Week 1 with no goal-line carries and 21st in targets. This points to a tough upside formula for Darrell Henderson (clear starter last week in market share) or Cam Akers down the line. To hit as a top-12 fantasy option, strong touchdown numbers (from distance or converting minimal goal-line carries) are paramount.

Ravens

Kenyan Drake was a surprise starter in Week 1, with Mike Davis a distant second option. One of the bigger fallacies is how J.K. Dobbins had big upside within the offense. Baltimore has been one of the worst running back target offenses in the NFL during the Lamar Jackson era and middle-of-the-road for goal-line carries the past two seasons. With Dobbins still working back from a significant injury, this is generally a backfield to avoid this season.

Seahawks

Seattle's big Week 1 win over Denver did not include a strong HLO score for Rashaad Penny. Seattle was dead last in the NFL for HLO, including zero goal-line carries and 32nd in targets. This after their No.32 finish last season. Penny is healthy and the clear starter, but these HLO marks will make it almost impossible to finish strongly within the position. This transposes to Kenneth Walker potentially later in the season as well.

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