Photo: George Walker IV, USA Today Sports

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.

5: Thursday Night Special

Jalen Hurts LESS than 240.5 passing yards
Davis Mills LESS than 219.5 passing yards

• This is a correlation play based upon a belief that both teams will be happy to run the ball in this one and that even if the Texans are forced to throw late, the efficiency will not be there.
• Jalen Hurts has averaged just 204 passing yards over his last four games and topped 240 yards just once over that stretch.
• The Eagles are 14-point favorites and one of the league’s best rushing offenses (149.6 yards per game). The Texans are the league’s worst rushing defense, giving up 186 yards per game on the ground.
• Expect the Texans to try to pound away with Dameon Pierce early to try to shorten the game.

It remains unclear whether #Texans WR Brandin Cooks plays tonight against the #Eagles. He didn’t practice, excused for personal reasons and listed as questionable. He posted a cryptic, angry social media message when he wasn’t traded. Trending toward missing game at moment.

— Ed Werder (@WerderEdESPN) November 3, 2022

• Even if Houston falls behind, it is hard to see the pass offense putting up big numbers. Brandin Cooks is questionable in this one due to personal reasons and seems to have completely checked out.

4: Detroit shootouts

Aaron Jones MORE than 17.5 fantasy points
Amon-Ra St Brown MORE than 15.5 fantasy points

• Amon-Ra St. Brown has been healthy for four games this season. In those games, the Lions scored an average of 30.5 points. Each of those four games has gone over the Vegas game total.
• In his four healthy games, St. Brown has seen at least nine targets in each outing.
• St. Brown had 26.1 fantasy points in his last meeting with the Packers.
• Pick any advanced metric for running backs, and Aaron Jones is among the league leaders. He is tied for second in lowest percentage of runs for one yard or less (10%). He is tied for third in the explosive rush rate (17% of his runs have gone for 10+ yards). He is second in the league in percentage of runs where he generated positive rushing yards over expected (48%). In short, Jones is playing at an elite level in an offense where everyone else is struggling. It is obvious to everyone the offense needs to run through him.
• The Lions defense has been atrocious across the board and is giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs (26.5 fantasy PPG)

3: Elevated Roles

Tee Higgins MORE than 75.5 receiving yards
DOnta Foreman MORE than 55.5 rushing yards

Over the last four weeks, the Bengals have the highest neutral pass rate (63%) in the NFL. The offense has shown major improvement after switching almost exclusively to shotgun.

With JaMarr Chase out, the offense should run through Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Higgins has had 93-plus receiving yards in three of his last five games.

Foreman has rushed for 118 yards in each of his two games since Christian McCaffrey was traded and has looked good doing it.

Panthers RB D'Onta Foreman in the two games since the Christian McCaffrey trade: 41 carries, 236 yards, three touchdowns. He has turned into a serious dude. Runs inside with power, balance, force through contact. Outside, great jump cuts and acceleration. pic.twitter.com/AftHKi1sFR

— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) November 1, 2022

The Bengals are without their top two run-stuffing defensive tackles, and the run defense has suffered. Last week, Browns running backs ran for 160 yards.

2: Rock Bottom in Las vegas

Davante Adams MORE than 73.5 receiving yards
Travis Etienne MORE than 75.5 rushing yards

• Last week’s blowout loss to the Saints felt like rock bottom for the Raiders franchise. It was no coincidence that the disastrous performance coincided with a season-low 12.8% target share for Davante Adams. Josh McDaniels and Derek Carr cannot let that happen again.
• Adams has had a target share of 25% or more in four of seven games as a Raider. He had at least 95 receiving yards in every one of those outings.
• The Raiders defense has been stout against the run this season but has shown some cracks in recent weeks. The Saints ran for 136 yards last week, and the Texans ran for 108 yards the week before.
• Since taking over the lead role from James Robinson, Travis Etienne has been incredible. He rushed for 156 yards against a good Denver defense last week and 114 yards against the Giants the week before.
• Etienne has seen his carries increase four straight weeks, with a season-high 24 last week.
• We should feel confident Etienne will again see in the neighborhood of 20 carries, which makes this rushing prop incredibly attractive. Over his last four games, Etienne is averaging 7.4 yards per carry and looks like one of the most explosive players in the NFL.

Updated through 8 career games (min 90 touches):

1. Adrian Peterson - 7.31
2. Bo Jackson - 7.11
3. Travis Etienne - 6.78
4. Billy Sims - 6.09
5. Saquon Barkley - 6.01

Etienne is still trending at a historic rate. https://t.co/jhSNNu48as

— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) November 3, 2022

1: TE Overs

Kyle Pitts MORE than 50.5 receiving yards
Gerald Everett MORE than 40.5 receiving yards

• Kyle Pitts finally had a breakout game in last week’s win over the Panthers with 5 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown.
• While prior to last week, the numbers will not show it, the Falcons have been making an effort to get Pitts the ball in creative ways.

Good things happen when Kyle Pitts has big receiving performances pic.twitter.com/48uATL1WBZ

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 1, 2022

• The Chargers have given up at least 60 yards to opposing tight ends in each of the last four games, and it has not been a murderer’s row of tight ends faced. In Week 7, the Seahawks tight ends (led by Will Dissly), had 80 yards. In Week 6, the Broncos tight ends had 60 yards. David Njoku had 88 yards in Week 5. The Texans tight ends, led by Jordan Akins, had 60 yards in Week 4.
• Gerald Everett has at least 54 receiving yards in four of seven games this season.
• Who else is Justin Herbert going to throw to this weekend other than Everett and Austin Ekeler? Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Jalen Guyton are out. Josh Palmer is banged up. Everett is the number two target behind only Ekeler heading into the weekend.