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Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Thursday Night Special
- It is going to be tough sledding for Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense against what is arguably the NFL’s best defense.
- Over the last six games, the 49ers have held every opponent to 17 or fewer points and are allowing just 10.4 points per game (many of which came in garbage time).
- San Francisco held the Seahawks to just seven points and Geno Smith to a season-low 7.1 fantasy points in their Week 2 matchup.
- Over the last two weeks, Christian McCaffrey has 299 total yards, 10 catches and 3 touchdowns. He had 28-plus fantasy points in both games.
- The 49ers can clinch the NFC West with a win Thursday night. McCaffrey should be primed for another huge workload in the key matchup.
- Tyler Lockett has quietly had an elite season. He is the WR8 with 208.6 fantasy points on the year.
- Lockett has scored a touchdown in six straight games and has 14 catches for 188 yards and 2 touchdowns over the last two weeks.
- Lockett had 54.3% of the Seahawks receiving yards against the 49ers in the previous matchup on (9-107-0).
- Over his last four matchups against the 49ers, D.K. Metcalf has been very much held in check, averaging 4.0 catches for 45.2 yards and 0.25 touchdowns per game.
4: AFC North showdown
- Deshaun Watson showed signs he was beginning to knock the rust off last week against the Bengals, throwing for 276 yards while using his legs to pick up a number of key first downs (33 rushing yards). He scored 3.7 more fantasy points than the Bengals give up on average to opposing quarterbacks.
- Watson showed a strong rapport on timing routes with Donovan Peoples-Jones (8-114-0) and the return of David Njoku (7-59-1) also provided a boost to the passing attack.
- The Ravens defense gives up the 11th-most against opposing quarterbacks, allowing 17.4 fantasy points per game.
- Watson has scored 20-plus fantasy points in 12 of his last 18 games.
- Mark Andrews has gone six straight games with fewer than 12.5 fantasy points. Over that stretch, he has averaged just 3.2 catches and 36 receiving yards per game. He has not scored since Week 6.
- Andrews was held without a catch despite playing 88% of the snaps in the Week 7 matchup against the Browns.
3: Garrett Wilson still undervalued
- Since Mike White took over as the starting quarterback for the Jets in Week 12, Garrett Wilson is second in the NFL with 335 receiving yards.
- In six games started by anyone other than Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson has averaged 6.2 catches for 91.5 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game on 10.5 targets.
- The Lions allow the third-most receiving yards (198.6 per game) to opposing wide receivers.
The Lions have allowed NINE top-24 WR performances over the past four games.— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) December 14, 2022
It's Garrett Wilson Week!!
- Jamaal Williams has seen his playing time cut in recent weeks, playing 30% of the snaps in Week 13 and 37% of the snaps in Week 14. DAndre Swift has been healthier of late and has out-snapped Williams over the last two weeks. Plus, Justin Jackson has been increasingly involved (20%-plus snap share in six straight). This is a messy three-man RBBC.
- Williams’ efficiency has been awful of late, averaging less than 3.8 yards per carry in each of his last six games (3.35 yards per carry since Week 9).
- The Jets have one of the NFL’s best run defenses, allowing just 85.5 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
2: Can Engram stay hot?
- With his outstanding performance in Week 14, Evan Engram leaped from the fantasy TE15 on the season all the way up to TE4. He set career highs in targets (15), yards (162) and touchdown catches (2).
Very clear the Jaguars prioritized featuring Evan Engram vs the Titans LBs and Safeties— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 13, 2022
Slot snaps to maximize clear outs
Whip vs Byard
TE screen, won with YAC
and even split out wide
Hope some of these concepts stick week in and week out pic.twitter.com/tH3Q66u9Eo
- Engram had four straight games with 40-plus receiving yards before getting injured and playing a season-low 55% of the snaps in Week 9. He has looked healthy again the last two weeks and is again having a major impact in the Jaguars passing game.
- Engram’s receiving over is a way to get indirect exposure to one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL. Since Week 9, Trevor Lawrence has completed 71.8% of his passes, thrown for 272.4 yards per game with 10 touchdowns against 0 interceptions, and had a QB rating of 111.7. We are seeing a young quarterback quietly make the leap to elite right before our eyes.
- Michael Gallup is a strong candidate to see improved efficiency down the stretch in his return from ACL surgery. He is averaging just 6.1 yards per target on the season, which is well below his career average of 8.0.
- Gallup has seen six-plus targets in five of six games and should again see a healthy number of opportunities if Lawrence can continue his recent streak of excellent play and force Dallas to remain aggressive on offense for four quarters.
1: WRs show out in Tampa
JaMarr Chase MORE than 18.5 fantasy points
Chris Godwin MORE than 14.5 fantasy points
- This is a correlation play based upon a belief we could see a shootout between Joe Burrow and Tom Brady.
- Since Week 6, Chase leads all wide receivers with 27.6 fantasy PPG.
- JaMarr Chase is going to be peppered with targets as the Bengals could be without Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Boyd is recovering from a dislocated finger, while Tee Higgins is dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of last week’s game against the Browns. The most likely scenario is that both Boyd and Higgins are able to play in some capacity but with limited effectiveness.
- With Higgins and Boyd out last week, Chase was dominant despite shadow coverage from top Browns cornerback Denzel Ward. He had 10 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets.
- The Buccaneers could be without three starting defensive backs (Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield, and Mike Edwards) as well as multiple key pass rushers on Sunday.
- Chris Godwin has been an absolute target hog of late. Since Week 6, he has averaged 11.1 targets per game (a 17-game pace of 189). He has at least eight targets in every game over that stretch and has had 10-plus targets in six of eight.