The 2022 quarterback free-agent class lacks stars, but given the recent retirements of Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger - after Drew Brees and Phillip Rivers retired last offseason - there are more holes to fill at the position than in years past. Keeping an open mind to the cost and expectation of these players should present opportunities to fill a need or make an upside value investment.
Difference Makers for Fantasy
Jameis Winston is the potential difference-maker in free agency in 2022. Winston was QB32 in 2021 on only seven games on 161 attempts, 37th in the league. Winston finished with 14 touchdowns and only three interceptions, before tearing his ACL, and finished with 19.2 PPG, which ranked QB16 on only 23 attempts per game. Winston has a history of interception issues, including leading the league in 2019 (30), which hampered his market before he signed consecutive one-year deals with the Saints.
Two other difference-makers for fantasy football among free-agent quarterbacks include Marcus Mariota and Mitchell Trubisky. Both had opportunities to start after being the second pick of the draft in their respective classes but ultimately failed in the first stop of their career. Mariota and Trubisky both can create on the ground which could aid their fantasy valuation.
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For a comparison point, think higher draft pedigree, with less starting success, than Tyrod Taylor’s career after Buffalo. Taylor has made stops with the Browns (one season), Chargers (two seasons), and Houston (one season), but only started 10 games in those three seasons. Taylor lost the starting job to Baker Mayfield in Cleveland and Justin Herbert in Los Angeles, two first-round draft picks, before losing the job to Davis Mills in Houston after he was injured.
Mariota and Trubisky have a higher draft pedigree than Taylor and enter free agency before a weak 2022 rookie quarterback class. This could give either player an opportunity for a second act, similar to Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee, in a way Taylor never did.
Even if Mariota and Trubisky are not long-term starters, their rushing ability can make them fantasy viable in 2022 in Superflex leagues as QB2s. If they are available outside the top 25-30 quarterback valuations, they are good opportunities in startup drafts. However, be careful tying up liquid assets in investing in their future. You are unlikely to return a future first-round pick for either player, so buying for a second is more of an investment in their production than an investment in their depressed valuation.
Retread Starters
Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, and Tyrod Taylor are veteran starters who enter free agency. Bridgewater’s status in Denver may be determined by the fate of the Aaron Rodgers trade saga. If he does not return to Denver, look for Bridgewater to get a similar type of opportunity to start in 2022. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton has had dwindling yards per attempt over the past three seasons, falling from 6.6 (2019) to 6.5 (2020) and 6.4 (2021), below his career yards per attempt average of 7.0. In this era, 7.0 yards per attempt just will not cut it. Dalton is more of a serviceable backup than a bridge starter.
Tyrod Taylor is in a cycle of bridge starter roles where he is replaced by a younger higher upside option. Taylor could have had a better shot at rejuvenating his career with the Chargers before an errant needle deflated his lung and gave birth to the Justin Herbert era. The NFL has basically confirmed that Taylor is a more mobile version of Andy Dalton at this point of his career. He would still be one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league with playoff starting experience.
Geno Smith, who played better than expected in relief of Russell Wilson in 2021 is also a free agent. With Wilson traded to Denver, Smith could be a potential bridge starter. Otherwise, watch for him to be a backup elsewhere. Smith played well enough in 2021 to be considered a top 10 backup in the league.
Cam Newton’s return to Carolina was largely a disappointment. He could get another opportunity to be a bridge starter, but his career is to the point that is no sure thing. He is living off name-brand at this point more than any recent production.
Potential Cut Candidates
Carson Wentz was the leading name on this list but has been traded to Washington.
Nick Foles should likewise be available on the market. He may not get a day one starting opportunity, but a high-end backup position could be available to the Super Bowl MVP.
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