Welcome to Week 9 of the 2022 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. Topics are now split into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Second-Half Slump Candidates (see below)
- Wounded Wide Outs
- For Real-Fool's Gold
- Zach Wilson's Future
Second-Half Slump candidates
Matt Waldman: Name two players you believe are about to fizzle in the second half of the fantasy season or at least see a notable decline in production (by at least a tier in a 12-team PPR format, think RB1 to RB2 or WR3 to WR3, etc.)
Gary Davenport: Leonard Fournette. It pains me to write this, given how many shares of Fournette I have, but there's no way he can maintain RB1 value over the entire season while averaging less than 3.5 yards a carry. Fournette has less than 10 carries in three of his last five games and has 15 carries just once over that span. The touchdowns that have saved him are going to dry up. The Buccaneers will get rookie Rachaad White more involved, Whatever. Both. The point is, Fournette's production isn't sustainable—not with efficiency numbers that make Najee Harris last year look good.
Michael Pittman. The good news is that in Sam Ehlinger's first start, Pittman led the Colts in both targets (nine) and receptions (seven). The bad news is that he averaged two fewer yards per catch than Derrick Henry averaged yards per carry in Week 8. Maybe the Colts will open things up and throw the ball downfield more moving forward. But right now, counting on the Colts' new quarterback to keep Pittman's high-end WR2 fantasy value afloat feels like asking for trouble.
Waldman: I'll give you a reason for optimism, Gary. Ehlinger was accurate with both deep balls he threw to Alec Pierce and Parris Campbell in this game. The pass to Campbell drew a pass interference foul, and if not for what the defender did, this target could have resulted in a 45-yard touchdown. Pittman also dropped a late-game throw that would have flipped the field and put the Colts in field goal position, likely a gain of 25-35 yards.
Still, I think it's tough to say the Colts are a great bet to dramatically improve with an inexperienced starter at the helm. Who are your slump candidates, Sam?
Sam Wagman: It pains me to say it, but beware of Adam Thielen for the rest of the season. With T.J. Hockenson now in town, Thielen's production, which was already quite red zone dependent, could take another dive. Hockenson ranks eighth in the NFL among tight ends with six red zone targets, but this could translate over to taking more targets away from Thielen as well, as Hockenson has been very good between the 20s as well.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has enjoyed a return to relevance over the past couple of games, averaging 23 FPPG, but is that sustainable? With the trade for Kadarius Toney, a wrench could get thrown in this receiving corps. First, we have to think about how there's been no consistency outside of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in terms of fantasy points for this offense. Smith-Schuster has been great the past two weeks but averaged just over nine fantasy points a game in the previous five games. If Toney is activated, I could see Smith-Schuster dropping down a tier for the rest of the season, making him a very iffy WR4.