The 2022 Subscriber Contest is up and running. If you win it, you'll get $10,000, and we'll donate another $5000 in your name to a food bank.
And it's free for subscribers.
- If you are a subscriber, you can check it out.
- If you are not yet a subscriber, you can check it out before signing up.
By the way, the deadline to submit/edit your contest entry is 11:59 pm Eastern on Wednesday, September 7.
Granted, it's a complicated contest. To help you out, we went to a group of people who have spent countless hours figuring out high-level strategies.
This contest-crazed group pretty much lives in the Footballguys forums.
We asked them to give their strategy tips in 150 words or less. Some went over 150, but that's okay. Oh, we also will add $100 to anyone who makes the finals (as long as their team follows their own advice).
Lots of value WR's is a good strategy. Additional players ups your odds at getting people who way outperform preseason expectations. However if matching expectations a group of mediocre WR's can combine to score really well in best ball.
I have started my write-up, but I fear it may go a tad over 150 words. I'm at 79 words right now, and have only talked about K's and D's.
I feel like getting the perfect write up in under 150 words is harder than getting the perfect line up in under 250 dollars.
Hold on....the server running my monte carlo simulations just crashed...
- QB - Choose 2 if pocket passers; 3 if runners. Important, know your scoring format – pocket passers benefit if 6 per pass TD and .05 per pass yard.
- RB – Avoid top studs with late byes. Do not avoid/chase rookies. Volume is king! Consider 3rd down passing backs with injury upside.
- WR – Target hogs rule and are undervalued. Concentrate on WR1’s on running teams, WR2’s on average teams, and WR3’s on passing teams.
- TE – You can start 3; don’t be shy. Believe it or not, studs are worth it.
- K - 3 cheapest with job security and differing byes. Job security trumps expected output.
- D - 3 cheapest with differing byes. Concentrate on matchups against teams expected to give up sacks. Add emphasis on weeks 15 thru 17.
Overall - Avoid bye conflicts within positions, and spread budget over bye weeks. Very important – check submission before kickoff! Knibb High Football Rules!
According to Microsoft Word, 150 words on the nose, not counting these ones.
Here is your Winner Winner Chicken Dinner right here! This is all incredibly sound advice for folks just starting in this contest (And for many of us who have been doing it for a long time*) as It gives you cliff notes on where to look for value as well as taking some of the guesswork out of who to select - without actually telling you to select!
*This reminds me to change my roster again.....lol!
Come on - you write one now. I am dying to read it. It's very hard condensing it down to 150 words.
To be honest I did my breakdown after last season and posted it in the opening page of this years contest thread. It was WAY longer than 150 characters and it really was more about the $$ values at the time of last years contest. I agree on all your points so really not a need to counter anything you have put. It was well written and concise, why change what works?
OK then - here's a challenge. Let's really dig into it. RB's and WR's are by far the hardest to pick every year. You pick one and write about it, and I will take the other. No 150 word minimum. You can make your write-up as specific as you want, with actual names if you wish. Game on? If so, tell me which side I have to write about.
Disclaimer - I have never made it past week 3 in 20 years!
Part of my Strategy is using the latest FBG products provided:
- I have my home league set to the FBG contest scoring, so when I look at FBG rankings I get an exact match on projected points, with both individual and team projections - it makes it easier when deciding between 2 players. If your league isn't set like that you can set up a free MFL league pre-season and plug in players that you can sync with the FBG League dominator!
- I use the pre-season FBG articles on K's as I don't use them in my regular league and have not really kept up on them and settle on 3 bottom priced K's.
- For Team Defenses, I use the Strength of Schedule articles on FBG's. targeting 3 of the cheapest projected high scoring Defenses in the contest playoffs.
For reference, made finals 2 of last 3 years.
(according to your link this is 150 words on the dot)
@TheWinz and @apalmer both sat with me one year and reviewed my lineup and gave me such helpful hints. And spent a lot of time doing so. Any way to incorporate, work in, or somehow alert people to their answers would be one of the coolest things I've ever seen on the board, and I've been here over a decade now. Truly a labor of love for these guys. Peace.
Exactly 150 words below per word counter....
Emphasis on Methods as a Strategy
- Slightly oversimplifying, we want to understand STARTER value AT projection and BENCH value from projection upside.
- Get PRICING and SCORING from entry form and (customized) footballguys vbd app.
- Split each position into scoring tiers. Monitor news and opinions to "optimize" projections.
- Pick starter baselines. Compute "slope vs baseline" values as (points above baseline / cost above baseline).
- Compute "local slope" values similarly comparing RB tier 1 vs RB tier 2, etc.
- Considering these values (steeper slopes are better), decide on the priority of adding a player within the position tiers and across positions (Josh Allen vs Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen vs Cooper Kupp).
Position budgets (RB $85, WR $75, TE $40, QB $30, PK $10, TD $10) help you understand where you might be too heavy or lean, but the process should be driven by optimizing projections and finding value versus following immutable rules.
Hot Sauce Guy
The FBG subscriber contest, so simple it can drive a reasonable man insane. In 2021, I made it to week 14 before missing the cut by ~1 point.
Like regular FF, my first step every year is identifying players I believe can vastly outperform dollar value. Of course value is in the eye of the beholder. Once I’ve checked all of those, I fill my lineup. The annual mental battle for me is whether to have a fat or lean roster. Best Ball format favors more players, but I feel like one must have enough studs to really get over the top.
I aim between 19-24 players. If I can get more while retaining my sleepers & studs, I will.
It’s a tough nut to crack , and there’s no “right way” to do it. As a friend used to say, there are many paths to the house next door.
Double the allowable words, but it's the best I could do:
One day during your morning routine, as you're sipping your coffee and scrolling aimlessly through the FBG boards, it will happen. You'll see a beautifully bolded thread title along the lines of “Subscriber Contest is Now Live!”. You proceed with caution since you've been burned one too many times by some June- @TheWinz -Bump of a previous year's thread, but you click it anyways. You see that it's a post from @Joe Bryant , and a wave of emotion fills your body. This... can't really... be it... can it? Has the moment you've waited for since your Monday Night QB took a last second knee and kicked you out of last year's contest finally arrived? It has. This is your time to shine.
You'll cancel all your meetings for the month, fill the dog's bowl with enough food for the 40 days, and tell your wife that the family summer vacation is being moved to January.
You fill out your first attempt and are pleasantly surprised. Wow, I got my final team so fast this year! It's perfect! You close the screen and hop in the shower ready to start your day. As the conditioner is setting in, the doubt hits you like a ton of bricks. What week is Kamara's bye week again?! Patience feels impossible, and you'll find yourself back on the couch 10 seconds later. Dripping wet, lathered hair, trying to click to the entry page as fast as you can like a desperate husband trying to get his wife Adele tickets because he forgot her birthday for the 3rd year in a row.
The remaining 5 weeks will be constant repetition of similar situations. You'll change your line up over 100 times, each time foolishly thinking it could possibly be your last. But when you finally create your masterpiece, you'll be so proud of your work of art.
It's stressful. It's consuming. It's awesome.
- Unique and fun contest where you need to understand rules. Spend ~60% budget on lineup with players that can hit big week. Get couple mid QBs with high TD potential.
- Best ball so go 24-26 spots. Too small needs to hit all. Too many and lineup weak. Have lottery ticket at each position.
- Get several mid WRs, they can score similar weeks as top guys. Don’t stack QB except maybe cheap option. Too much one team is issue for bye and bad weeks. Start anchor RB and couple bargain RB2s.
- Watch byes and earlier better. 15-20% max $ on bye.
- Go cheap on 3 Kickers and 2 Ds (I’ve never looked back and wished for 3rd)
- Check lineup before contest closes. Prices set early so bargains after preseason. Don’t need to differentiate everywhere.
- Positions: 3/7/8/3/3/2
- Spend: 35/80/80/40/9/6
Have fun, good luck!
Btw, I’ve never made finals.
- My two cents:
Know your bye weeks and try to avoid overlapping your core players bye weeks. So having your RB1, WR1, TE1, QB1 off on a different week is a key aspect.
- Play it as best ball. Use those extra dollars to take some flier on high upside guys, especially in receivers when it goes very deep. Look for some of the smaller stacks.
- TEs can make or break. Stud TEs make a difference, even though they are costly.
- The magic number is three. Three Ds and Three Ks. All cheap and all different bye weeks. It’s amazing how random the scoring is.
- Try to optimize that more than 50% of your spending is prior to the mid-bye week in the season. That way you are not losing your key players when you need them the most.
Big rosters are way more fun!
- Positions: 3/6-7/8-9/3-4/3/3
- Spend: 30-35/70-80/70-80/30-50/9/9
Made it to the Finals once FWIW.
100 words exactly:
The FBG Subscriber Contest is by far the most engrossing and enjoyable fantasy game of the year in terms of preparation. My favorite strategy this season is towards a small roster. Go big or go home. I started with 2K and 2D at the minimum price for $12 total, leaving $238 to build out the team. I selected a core group of stud players with different bye weeks for ~$200. The final roster spots are low priced, high upside players. No more than 3 players share a bye week. I avoided all of the trendy preseason hype players. Let’s go!
RB – Avoid top studs with late byes. Do not avoid/chase rookies. Volume is king! Consider 3rd down passing backs with injury upside.
The counter argument: The goal is to make it to the finals. If a team does make it that far, it's likely at least some of the remaining teams will have the same player(s) with late bye weeks. So you get a slight edge earlier in the season over the early bye week teams and your low priced backups can still win the day during the late bye weeks if you selected correctly. You also end up with a lower percentage owned player in the finals with massive upside. You zig when others zag, it's risky, but the potential payoff is there.
My favorite strategy to approaching this contest is:
- Select a bunch of players from each position group
- Watch games preseason week 1 and drop original players and add those that had a hot week
- Visit the forums thread on the FBG Contest, drop the hot players and add players that are popular
- Wash, Rinse, Repeat for preseason week 2
- Wash, Rinse, Repeat for preseason week 3
- Go back to original players selected
The contest is as much about math and logic as it is football knowledge. FBG projections can provide the knowledge, so I concentrate on the others. One key is to waste as little money as possible: rostering Allen and Herbert is a waste because you’re spending too much for a small weekly bump. Instead, either play safe with two midrange QBs or pair a star with a cheap bye cover. Similarly, according to Draft Dominator (a great tool for building your team), Buffalo will score 98 points this year while several $3 defenses will each score 88. Give me two 88s over one 98 anytime. At RB/WR/TE, find a few players who will greatly out-produce those priced similarly and build around them, ALWAYS keeping byes in mind. Don’t only look at positional byes and forget about cross-positional. Example: a Wilson/Harris/Lamb/Kittle base sounds great—until Week 9.
My 2 cents:
- Go as cheap as you can at QB. I usually only take 2 midrange QBs. Most teams that go deep into the contest hit big at RB, WR and TE. Need to allocate as much money to those positions.
- Spread out your bye weeks as best as you can. Even better if your stud players do not have late bye weeks.
- Anchor RB and WR with a stud or a really good solid option and then grab lots of high upside options.
- Gamble on a few players that you think will not be heavily owned.
- Get three cheap options at kicker and defense.
- You can win this contest with 18 players, 30 players, or any amount in between. There is no optimal number.
Don't build your team around expensive studs. Wipe your sheet clean, identify your favorite value plays and build from there. Season is long, money's won at the end and attrition is real so try for a larger roster sizes with just a few high end studs. When you can handcuff on the cheap you do but you also want to nab at least 1-2 high end handcuffs that are not backing up a player on your team. You can buy one expensive QB at most. Strive for team stacks. Don't go expensive on K or D, but do go with 2-3.
Hot Sauce Guy
I try for a mix. I rarely get the peak $29 players, but occasionally will take a swing with a $22 guy. Or two.
Also, I’ve been known to grab a better D or K if I have $1-2 leftover after my best build. I hate leaving money on the table.
I’m obsessed with Footballguys subscriber contest. My favorite contest by far! The approach…
- Rules matter!
- Survive weekly cut to make the playoffs, so 1 bad week eliminates you.
- Late bye weeks are riskier and limit conflicts. RIP if your top QB,RB and TE are out the same week.
- Scoring 6 per passing TD favors pocket QB and running quarterbacks are more likely to miss games.
- Tight ends score extra PPR, focus on high target share.
- Go full Mad Scientist!
- Check player prices for value. $$$ locked when the contest opens and cheap backups could be valuable commodities in September
- Lock in “my guys”
- Frankenstein different combinations built around my core group.
- Roster size target 21-26 players
- Builds that I like, grab a screen shot then go back and make another monster. Lock in my favorite before the deadline.
Good luck and have fun!