In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Final 2025 In and Out Accountability
Again, we push the envelope here. That means I'm wrong -- a lot. But even then, sharing the thought processes behind those picks can be helpful. Of course, it's more helpful when I'm right. And that's always the goal. But realistically, I'm aiming to hit .500 on these predictions.
So how did it go last year?
Here's where we finished after 18 weeks: 85 hits; 77 misses.
So we ended 2025 sitting at .524. I'll take that and build on it this year.
For the record, you'll find a full, player-by-player accountability report in this space throughout the season. And with that, let's dive into Week 1.
Week 1 Picks At a Glance
In: Jaxson Dart, Bucky Irving, Tetairoa McMillan, Mark Andrews
Out: Josh Allen, Quinshon Judkins, Drake London, Travis Kelce
Outlier to Watch: Tre Tucker
Quarterback
In: Jaxson Dart, NY Giants vs. Dallas
Dart heads into his second season trying to emulate what Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and Bears quarterback Caleb Williams were able to do in their second NFL seasons.
And if he takes a similar step forward, it would be a big deal.
Let's not lose sight of how impressive Dart's inaugural season was. He had 2,740 total yards from scrimmage and a 74.3 percent adjusted completion rate in just 12 starts. Throw in a supporting cast that will include Malik Nabers, who appears to be on track to return this week, and there's a lot to like.
Still, a change of play-callers with Matt Nagy taking over for Brian Daboll, Dart's aggressive style of play, and his copious trips to the blue medical tent (because of that style), had many dialing back their expectations this year.
I'm one of them.
But this week, Dart gets a matchup against a Dallas defense that allowed the most fantasy points -- 23.3 per game -- to opposing quarterbacks last season. The Cowboys should be better this year, but with a projected total of 47.5 points, there's plenty of room for scoring on both sides of the ball.
SI.com's Michael Fabiano notes that Dart was also solid at home last year, averaging more than 20 points per game -- including five games in which he scored at least 19.8 fantasy points. In the last meeting between these clubs, at New York in Week 18 last year, Dart had a career-high 110.2 passer rating, 230 passing yards, two touchdowns, and five carries for 32 yards, and scored 20.4 fantasy points.
Bottom line: Dart's Footballguys projection calls for a QB18 finish with 16.9 points. I say Dart exceeds 20 points.
Out: Josh Allen, Buffalo at Houston
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This is a great opportunity to remind you that me being out on a player doesn't mean I'm benching them. It means I don't expect them to hit their Footballguys projection.
So to be clear, don't bench Allen.
If you drafted Allen, you're starting him every single week, and expectations should be high.
But they should be lower this week.
Houston allowed only 17.4 points per game last year, second only to the Seattle Seahawks. ESPN.com's Mike Clay notes the Texans defense didn't allow a single quarterback to reach 21 fantasy points in 2025 and remains elite on paper.
Not surprisingly, the Texans are one of the few teams that Allen has routinely struggled against throughout his eight-year career -- and the four-time Pro Bowler hasn't struggled against many.
Houston is just one of two teams against whom Allen has a losing record, going 1-4 in their five matchups to this point. He's winless against them in Houston.
In 2024, he connected on just nine of 30 pass attempts for 131 yards and a single touchdown, though 54 rushing yards (14.6 fantasy points) helped rescue anyone who started him that week.
Most recently, Allen was sacked a career-high eight times in a 23-19 Thursday night loss in Houston. He threw for 253 yards, had two interceptions, and no touchdown passes in the game.
Again, Allen is too good to bench, but, as Clay put it, "be prepared for a slow start and avoid him in DFS cash games."
Bottom line: Allen's Footballguys projection calls for a QB4 finish with 19.9 points. I say he falls short of both numbers.