Sunday Showdown Week 16

Photo: Reinhold Matay, USA Today Sports

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heading to Arizona to take on the Cardinals as 7.5-point favorites. The total is set at 40.5. The Cardinals already lost their franchise quarterback for the remainder of the season and are now once again without Colt McCoy. Trace McSorley is drawing the first start of his career. In Week 15 he threw 15 passes resulting in 7 completions and two interceptions. Arizona ranks sixth in pass rate over the last three weeks, but it’s safe to assume that with McSorely, and a banged-up receiver room, that number should drop dramatically. This leaves room for James Conner to flourish, even as a 7.5-point underdog. On the flip side, we understand as 7.5-point favorites, we’re looking to heavily stack the Buccaneers. While this build will be popular, there are plenty of viable options in Tampa Bay to help us remain unique.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Julio Jones – Knee – Questionable

Colt McCoy – Head – Out

Marquise Brown – Groin – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Tom Brady
2. Chris Godwin
3. James Conner
4. DeAndre Hopkins
5. Mike Evans

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tom Brady $10,400 – Captain or Flex

While maybe ineffective at times, the Buccaneers have the highest pass rate in the league this season. Over the last three games, they ranked second. Brady has passed at least 40 times in 11-of-14 starts thus far, which leaves the door open for a wide variety of stacking options. He also gets his running backs involved in the passing game, making both Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White viable. In lineups including Brady at Captain, we’re going to stack him with at least two receiving options, but feel comfortable going up to four.