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OVERVIEW
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
GAME THEORY
The Green Bay Packers are heading to Buffalo to take on the Bills as 11-point underdogs. The total is set at 47. Optimizers are going to push for Packers 2-4 lineups due to all their value at wide receiver. Don’t fall for it. The Bills are expected to score 29 points this week, and it feels conservative. Josh Allen is leading the most productive offense in the league and has hit the 300-yard-passing bonus in four of six games. He missed the fifth bonus by three yards. He’s as close to a lock for Captain as we’ll ever see, which means we will need multiple Bills pass catchers in our lineups. As close to a lock as Allen is for Captain, Aaron Jones is that for the Flex. The Packers already had one of the worst receiving corps in the league and are now without two of their top three options. Jones is currently their best-receiving weapon. I would not fault anyone for locking Allen at Captain and Jones at flex before doing anything else on this slate.
INJURY ROUND-UP
Allen Lazard – Shoulder – Out
Christian Watson – Hamstring – Questionable
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
GREEN BAY OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Aaron Rodgers $9,800 – Flex
Aaron Rodgers has resembled nothing of what we saw from the back-to-back MVP the past two seasons. I’m not naïve enough to think that losing Davante Adams is the only problem with this offense, but it certainly doesn’t help. His only consistent weapon has been Allen Lazard, who has barely played this year. Romeo Doubs has shown flashes but has let Rodgers down in multiple key moments. The only option Rodgers can trust in the passing game at this point is Aaron Jones. I like stacking Rodgers with Jones in the flex with four Bills but it removes the ability to play Stefon Diggs.
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