2022 Team Reports
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Denver Broncos Writers
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Team Philosophy
Adam Harstad
Offensive Players
Alfredo Brown
Kickers
Sigmund Bloom
Returners
Adam Harstad
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Team Philosophy
In 2021, the Denver Broncos were a middling offense that was 19th in passing yards, 13th in rushing yards, and 23rd in scoring. The Broncos' new head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, did not call plays in Green Bay, but he comes from a Packers offense that was 8th in passing and 10th in scoring in 2021. Granted, much of that success in Green Bay may be attributed to Aaron Rodgers. However, in Denver, Hackett will get to work with newly acquired quarterback, Russell Wilson. Over the last three seasons in Green Bay, Hackett has run a very simple offense that allows his quarterback to take advantage of what he sees. The offense primarily runs out of 11 personnel (one running back and one tight end) or 12 personnel (one running back and two tight ends). The heavy use of 11 personnel means that the Broncos are likely to deploy three receivers on most offensive sets. Hackett has said multiple times that he wants to "Build [the offense] around him... It's going to be what Russell likes to do". That likely means the Broncos will use a lot more play-action to give Wilson time for the deep ball. Wilson also often rolls out of the pocket to put himself in space and allow for easier reads and rushing potential. When it comes to running the ball, Hackett has deployed a two-running back system for years. Over the last five seasons, his backfields have averaged a 55/30 split, with the remaining 15% of snaps going to reserves.
Quarterbacks
Starter
Key Backups
Is it finally time to let Russ cook?! On the surface, it looks like Russell Wilson could be throwing the ball more than he ever has in his career. His career high in pass attempts was 558 in 2020 - that was just under 35 attempts per game. For context, in 2021, eleven starting quarterbacks threw for more pass attempts per game. Wilson's problem has never been a lack of efficiency but a lack of volume. For his career, Wilson has an average of just 30 pass attempts per game. Over the last five seasons, Hackett's quarterbacks have averaged roughly 33.5 pass attempts per game. This information tells us that Wilson will probably pass the ball a little bit more, but likely not to the extent most fantasy managers want. Throughout his tenure in Seattle, the offensive line made life very difficult for Wilson. Last season, the Seahawks were second-to-last in both pressure percentage (31.3%) and sack rate (10%). The Broncos' offensive line was only slightly better in 2021. Denver was 27th in sacks allowed and 15th in pressure rate, numbers that should improve with the addition of Billy Turner at right tackle. With the improved offensive line, the likely increase in pass attempts, and an offensive-minded head coach in place, Russ has a safe production floor, with the potential to be a top-three fantasy quarterback.
In 2021, Josh Johnson proved to not only be a solid backup, but he was also a formidable fantasy option when he started. In his two starts, he totaled 621 passing yards, 5 passing touchdowns, and 28 rushing yards. Those performances turned into 25 and 20 fantasy points, respectively. Brett Rypien has two games played and one start in his career, which was uninspiring. In his lone start, Rypien put up 242 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions for a 14-point fantasy performance. Should Russell Wilson miss any time, Johnson is expected to be the starter in Denver.
Running Backs
Starter
Key Backups
- Melvin Gordon, Mike Boone, Damarea Crockett
Fullback
Javonte Williams showed that he is not only incredibly talented but that he could also produce fantasy numbers early in his career despite splitting a backfield. In 2021, Williams had a 48% snap share in the Broncos backfield. Over the last five seasons, the lead back in Nathaniel Hackett's offense tends to see around 55% of the backfield snaps. This means Javonte could be in line for a nice increase in rushing work. Despite the lack of "bell-cow" usage in his rookie season, he still finished as the RB15 overall in PPR formats from weeks 1-17. For the sake of this commentary, had Javonte gotten a 7% increase in usage and seen an equal increase in fantasy production, he would have vaulted into the RB11 spot as a rookie. Hackett's two-running back approach with Melvin Gordon and the addition of Russell Wilson may put a cap on Javonte's ceiling. Javonte may have a top-20 floor, but his potential is so limited in 2022.
Nathaniel Hackett's two-running back system means that Melvin Gordon will still be heavily involved in the running game. Gordon should still see 30-40% of the snaps in the backfield. He'll have some fantasy value as an RB3 when healthy. Mike Boone and Damarea Crockett are the only other running backs on the roster. Boone had some short-term production in 2019 on the Vikings when both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison were injured.
There's not much to say for Andrew Beck. He has not recorded a rush attempt or a reception since 2019. He will primarily be a blocking piece used on power run plays.
Wide Receivers
Starters
Key Backups
- K.J. Hamler, Seth Williams, Travis Fulgham, Tyrie Cleveland, Kendall Hinton, Tim Patrick (inj)
Courtland Sutton appears to be an early favorite of Wilson's and he likely has a higher fantasy ceiling. Last season, Sutton led the Broncos in targets, receiving yards, and average depth of target (aDOT). Sutton could find himself in a very explosive role as a deep threat for Russell Wilson - He's typically been a yards guy who has made big chunk plays with average volume and a low-scoring offense. In his career, Sutton has averaged 15.2 yards per catch. For context, in 2021, only three top-24 fantasy receivers had a yards-per-catch average of 15.2 or better: His potential for boom/bust success makes him a great option in best-ball and non-PPR formats. If Sutton can get the necessary target volume, he could break into the elite-level of fantasy RWs.Jerry Jeudy came out firing on all cylinders until he got injured in the third quarter of week 1. Despite missing seven games, Jeudy still led the Broncos receivers in targets per game, receiving yards per game, and yards-after-catch per reception. The injury really de-railed his season and left fantasy managers wanting a lot more after finishing with no touchdowns on the year. Jeudy doesn't quite fit the mold of DKMetcalf or Tyler Lockett, but he's a strong route runner like Wilson's former teammate, Doug Baldwin, and he led the NFL in average yards of separation per route run (2.35). Because of his ability to get open, Jeudy has the potential to become the WR1 in this offense with a solid PPR floor. Over the last four seasons in Seattle, Wilson has helped his receivers finish as the WR18 or better in each season, including 2020, where Metcalf and Lockett finished as the WR6 & WR13, respectively, in PPR formats. Although he's not the big name amongst the wide receiver group, Tim Patrick was a hot name for most of the summer but suffered a season-ending ACL tear on August 2. He's worth a stash in dynasty leagues, especially if you have a slot for injured players. The injury to Patrick, while unfortunate, opens the door for, both, Sutton and Jeudy to be in the mix as top-15 fantasy WRs.
Outside of K.J. Hamler, there's not much to be excited about in the backups. Hamler, somewhat, resembles Tyler Lockett and could take on a bigger role than expected in the Broncos' offense, especially with Patrick out. He has the ability to take the top off defenses and win on quick routes underneath. He may find himself in a bit of a rotation at the slot WR spot with athletic TEs, Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich. Seth Williams and Travis Fulgham are decent depth pieces that will likely carry no fantasy value. In contrast, Tyrie Cleveland and Kendall Hinton are just special teams guys who would only see the field in five-wide sets if the team had injuries to the players ahead of them.
Tight Ends
Starter
Key Backups
Albert Okwuegbunam is the hot name for the tight end position in fantasy football. Throughout his career, Russell Wilson has targeted his top tight end on nearly 11% of his throws. This means that Okwuegbunam will likely see around 55-65 targets on the season. Even at 65 targets, that would have put Okwuegbunam as the 21st most targeted tight end in football, which isn't what fantasy managers want. The thing is, many people are banking on the talent of Okwuegbunam and think that he could look more like the Seattle version of Jimmy Graham from 2015-2017. The issue is, those Seahawks teams didn't have the level of receiving talent that the Broncos currently have, which made Graham the first or second read on many passing plays. Okwuegbunam will clearly be the third or even fourth target on this Broncos squad, assuming he holds off third-round pick Greg Dulcich, a big play tight end from UCLA, but with the right amount of touchdown production, he could eventually be a top ten fantasy tight end and a great late-round selection for fantasy managers.
After Okquegbunam, Eric Tomlinson and Shaun Beyer are just depth pieces who provide blocking ability and perhaps some goal-line work.
Offensive Linemen
Starters
- LT Garret Bolles
- LG Dalton Risner
- C Lloyd Cushenberry
- RG Quinn Meinerz
- RT Billy Turner
Key Backups
- OT Tom Compton, OG Netane Muti, OL Calvin Anderson, RG Graham Glasgow
Denver was 27th in sacks allowed and 15th in pressure rate, numbers that should improve with the addition of Billy Turner at right tackle. Turner allowed just three sacks in 2021, while left tackle, Garrett Bolles, gave up five. Dalton Risner, Lloyd Cushenberry, and Quinn Meinerz are all young players that have taken big steps forward in their development. This unit should also use their athleticism well in Nathaniel Hackett's zone run scheme.
This rising group is best at guard where Dalton Risner and Quinn Meinerz form an effective duo. Graham Glasgow returns from injury and will be the best backup guard in the game. Left tackle Garrett Bolles does an above-average job, and right tackle Billy Turner arrived in free agency from Green Bay to compete with Calvin Anderson. Still, this group has top-10 potential.
Kickers
McManus is one of the longest-tenured kickers in the NFL but hasn't been fantasy relevant since he had a good quarterback. His accuracy has been adequate, and he has a good distance leg, aided by about half of his games being played in the thin Denver air, but the offense hasn't given him enough opportunity to make a difference in fantasy leagues. That could and should change this year with the addition of Russell Wilson, so make McManus a top last-round target if you wait to take your kicker.
Returners
Kickoff Returners
- Kendall Hinton, K.J. Hamler
The Broncos' former return specialist (Diontae Spencer) is currently a free agent, and odds are good that their future return specialist is as well. If the Broncos opt to go into the season with the guys currently on the team, former practice squad receiver Kendall Hinton-- best known as the team's emergency quarterback when its entire quarterback room was ruled out of a game for Covid protocols-- would be the most likely choice, though receiver K.J. Hamler has speed to burn as well.
Punt Returners
- Kendall Hinton, K.J. Hamler
The Broncos' former return specialist (Diontae Spencer) is currently a free agent, and odds are good that their future return specialist is as well. If the Broncos opt to go into the season with the guys currently on the team, former practice squad receiver Kendall Hinton-- best known as the team's emergency quarterback when its entire quarterback room was ruled out of a game for Covid protocols-- would be the most likely choice, though receiver K.J. Hamler has speed to burn as well.
Team Defense
The Broncos defense went into rebuilding mode in 2021, with Von Miller departing via trade during the season, but they were still reasonably productive, with great games against the poor Jets, Washington, and Jaguars offenses with Miller and surprisingly solid games against Dallas, Las Vegas, and the Chargers without him. They should be one of your top targets with free agent pickup Randy Gregory in place to fill the big shoes of Miller, and Russell Wilson in town to make the team more competitive than they have been in any year since Peyton Manning retired. With Seattle and Houston on tap to open the season, the Broncos D/ST could be the #1 scorer in fantasy leagues at their position to open the season.
Defensive Linemen
Starters
- DE DreMont Jones, DE D.J. Jones, NT Mike Purcell
Key Backups
- DE McTelvin Agim, NT DeShawn Williams, DE Jonathan Harris
The Denver defensive line isn't built for aggressive, penetrating stat-builders. New coordinator Ejiro Evero, who comes from ex-coach Vic Fangio's coaching tree, will likely continue to lean on his down men to clog lanes and free up his linebackers. The loss of the underrated Shelby Harris may be covered well by ex-49er D.J. Jones, a penetrator who can both tie up blockers and blow up plays. DreMont Jones offers the most pass-rush ability; he's recorded 12.0 sacks over the past two years, and he'll likely see more snaps than he ever has before. Purcell is a fine rotational nose, but he does little more than occupy blockers in the middle. Through 6 NFL seasons, he's averaged 2.4 tackles a game and totaled just 2.0 sacks.
A former third-round pick, Agim has yet to put much on film. With Shelby Harris out of the picture, there's ample opportunity for him to lock down a prominent role, but it seems more likely the new coaching staff will pursue more options. Williams provides valuable depth at all the front-line spots, particularly against the run. Harris will face camp competition from rookies and veterans alike to fill out the depth chart.
Linebackers
Starters
- OLB Bradley Chubb, OLB Randy Gregory, ILB Josey Jewell, ILB Baron Browning
Key Backups
- ILB Alex Singleton, ILB Jonas Griffith, OLB Nik Bonitto [R], ILB Justin Strnad
At the moment, there's a large production vacuum in the middle of this defense. Former starter Alexander Johnson is a free agent, and there have been no indications he'll be brought back. Johnson lost most of 2021 to a torn pectoral, but he totaled 124 tackles and made a handful of splash plays the year before. One or two of Browning, Griffith, Strnad, and Singleton could pop in the preseason and step into LB2-type workloads. Browning seems the most likely after acquitting himself well in a full-time role down the 2021 stretch. Jewell is a solid if unspectacular starter, and he's working his way back from a torn pectoral of his own from early last season. His fantasy outlook is murky at best, but he's a candidate to go undrafted in IDP leagues. If so, he'd be a great value play just 2 years removed from a 113-tackle season. On the edges, Chubb and Gregory will be asked to rush the passer and little else. It's an imposing set of rushers on paper, but availability is a question mark for both guys. Chubb has lost 26 of his last 49 games to injury, posting just 3.4 tackles a game and 8.5 sacks over those three seasons. Gregory has produced even less, and he required rotator cuff surgery right after signing in March. Either could erupt and post a 12-sack season, but both are far too volatile to count on in fantasy drafts.
This logjam of bodies will battle for a full-time role (or two) on the inside, so there's real IDP intrigue here. Browning and Griffith played well when called upon in 2021, so they'll almost certainly get their feet in the door first. But the team would love to see real competition, so they've assembled several options. Singleton was a statistical beast last year in Philadelphia, recording 135 tackles (4 for loss) and scoring a touchdown. Strnad looks like a dependable run-stuffer but may be maxed out on special teams. Second-rounder Bonitto looks poised to command pass-rush snaps right off the bat. One of the NCAA's most disruptive edge men last year, he makes for a fine contingency plan behind the shaky duo of Chubb and Gregory.
Defensive Backs
Starters
- FS Justin Simmons, SS Kareem Jackson, CB Ronald Darby, CB Patrick Surtain
Key Backups
- CB KWaun Williams, FS Caden Sterns, CB Michael Ojemudia, CB Damarri Mathis [R], FS Delarrin Turner-Yell [R]
The Denver defense revolves around the coverage and playmaking skills of its secondary, and that won't change under new coordinator Evero. Luckily, they've stockpiled incredible talent on the back end. Simmons remains one of the NFL's premier safeties, an all-around beast against both the pass and the run. Last year brought his lowest tackle numbers (4.7 per game) since 2016, but he still demands low-end DB1 attention in fantasy drafts. He plays virtually every snap and has picked off 14 passes over the last 3 years. Jackson will likely move into a platoon role for his age-34 season. He produced 88 tackles over 15 games last year, but his play dipped noticeably, and the team is intrigued by second-year man Sterns. Surtain looks to build on a wildly promising 2021 in which he led all rookie cornerbacks in passer rating allowed. Last year's Kyle Fuller experiment didn't pan out, so Surtain looks locked into a full-time role, and he boasts the potential to both shadow top receivers and make plays on the ball (4 interceptions, 14 passes defensed). Darby remains rock-solid on the other side if not much of a fantasy play.
With Bryce Callahan not brought back, Williams was signed away from the 49ers to man the slot. Callahan was an elite cover man on the inside, but Williams has graded well there himself. He'll matter more to the Broncos than to fantasy players. There's been offseason buzz over Sterns, who reminds some of Simmons as a determined, downhill attacker. He'll look to work his way into a platoon role with the 34-year-old Jackson, and there's real potential there as a playmaker. Ojemudia shows promise as a size-speed prospect, but he'll be left to battle with the two rookies (and others) for a role in the dime.
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