WE'RE ALWAYS LOOKING FOR AN EDGE
We don't always know where to look and when we do, we often fail to recognize the genuine article for it is. An edge at this time of the year can require risk. Most people are risk-averse. There is a smaller percentage of GMs who often lack a good barometer for what's too risky, but they're a topic for another time.
Gaining an edge at this time of the year requires having the vision to see the possibility of an outcome that most people didn't expect, identifying the tangible and logical reasons that can underpin this possibility, and having the guts to embrace it.
If you're a serial trader, check yourself with that fine line between what's truly going to upgrade your team with the least amount of downside and pursuing the thrill of the deal in order to get high from the buzz of the potential ceiling outcome.
This feature, like many I'm doing this year, is rooted in the idea of identifying players who could potentially outperform their current value for the rest of the year and, based on common public perceptions about their profile, could be acquired at a low enough cost to minimize the risk.
Minimizing risk doesn't mean there will be minimal risk, just less of it than there is with other players/scenarios.
When examing the past two weeks of the fantasy season, Falcons' Damiere Byrd is the 15th-ranked PPR receiver during this span. The first thought for most is to discount his production as a blip, an unsustainable fluke.
Should we? And if we should, is there something more to learn from examining Byrd's game that can help us as fantasy GMs?
Let's take these questions one at a time. First...
Why Am I Examining A Fringe Fantasy Receiver?
I'm about to brag, but I'm doing it to set up praise for someone else.
Whether you're a scout-draft analyst, fantasy writer, or in my case, both, you're going to miss. I've had my share when looking at the wide receiver position. Hakeem Butler, Dorial Green-Beckham, and Dante Pettis are players I was higher on than many of my peers who didn't remotely produce to their potential.
It makes entertaining fodder for those who make it a point to attract their audience off the backs of others' failures. It's part of the game. The only reason the fodder is entertaining is that I have sustained success with the position over the span of 17 years.
While I learned I wasn't in the majority opinion about Butler, Beckham, and Pettis and failed, I was also in the minority opinion with how highly I ranked and forecasted an immediate fantasy impact for Odell Beckham, Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave.
If you get the Rookie Scouting Portfolio pre-draft and post-draft publications, you know what I'm talking about — and in great detail.
My success is rooted in a detailed process of evaluation that encourages continuous improvement based on how it's structured. The more I watch, the more the process encourages me to ask questions that refine it. A lot of that work behind the scenes shows up (literally) behind the scene of my appearances on the Audible or my RSP Casts.
This blackboard is filled with notes about how to potentially improve my scouting of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. This includes how to tighten up the way I define the criteria to use as well as techniques and concepts at each position that I'm learning about.
For a year, my board was filled with the work of Drew Lieberman, a former receivers coach at Rutgers. Lieberman's current students include NFL receivers and tight ends like Jakobi Meyers, Darius Slayton, Allen Robinson, Evan Engram, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Byrd. He has also worked with Julian Edelman, Mohammad Sanu, Juwann Winfree, and Chris Conley.
Lieberman's YouTube Channel, the Sideline Hustle, is an excellent resource. He has broken down tape with top pros like Kupp and Davante Adams. As I've done before with Lieberman when he joined my podcasts, I've credited his work as a basis for how I've continued to refine my wide receiver criteria, beginning with a significant incorporation of detailed techniques and concepts with the position into my evaluations about four years ago.
It's a big reason that while most saw Brown, Jefferson, and Olave as bad or less-than-ideal fits for the Titans, Vikings, and Saints as rookies, I saw them having the best chance for immediate impact in their respective classes.
I'm sharing this because another insight I gained from studying Lieberman's work and applying it to my process is that we fantasy GMs often miss out on calculated gambles that can at least generate short-term success because we don't always understand how defenses dictate targets.
In competitive leagues, fantasy GMs snatch up known free-agent commodities immediately. There will be weeks where there's nothing on the waiver wire. At least nothing the fantasy community knows anything about.
The best fantasy GMs don't lean on that as an excuse. I'm trying to do the groundwork for you and tackle potentially difficult situations that others shy away from.
WHY DAMIERE BYRD IS WORTH KNOWING ABOUT
Byrd and Zaccheaus, who, coincidentally are Lieberman's clients, are two of those players. I recommended Zaccheaus as a desperation addition for teams in deep leagues with bye-week issues in a recent Replacements column, based on the way opposing defenses were playing Kyle Pitts and Drake London.
Byrd had not earned much of a snap count during the season. He was recovering from injury during the first three weeks of the year. When he returned in Week 4, his snap counts were between 11-16 reps for three of his first four weeks. Byrd's high-water mark was a 21-snap affair against the Buccaneers in Week 5. He only earned three targets during his first four games.
But one of those targets was a 75-yard catch and run against the Bengals in Week 7. The pre-snap coverage shows us that Marcus Mariota and Byrd recognized the Bengals focused too much on Kyle Pitts and left a big hole for them to exploit deep.
Mariota is consistently recognizing when opposing defenses are overplaying Pitts and leaving another receiver open and this also includes post-snap adjustments that lead to big swaths of the field for Byrd after the catch.
The more I watched Byrd during these past two weeks, the more I noticed him aligned next to Pitts. All but one of the plays I'm sharing below begin with Byrd and Pitts aligned to the same side of the field and defenses focused on Pitts to the point of leaving Byrd in an advantageous situation that Mariota identifies.
The casual fan might argue that the Panthers are a bad team and the Bengals have been struggling, but the Bengals are the 8th stingiest defense for wide receiver fantasy points and the Panthers are 18th. Neither are exactly patsies.
In addition to a rematch with Carolina, Byrd has a nice schedule ahead:
- Chargers: 11th-most generous to wide receivers.
- Bears: 4th stingiest to wide receivers.
- Commanders: 8th-most generous.
- Steelers: Most generous in the league.
- Saints: 9th-most generous.
- Ravens: 6th-most generous.
- Cardinals: 12th stingiest.
Six of the next eight weeks of games are against struggling or mediocre defenses relative to the league. Many of these teams are likely to overplay Pitts and London at the expense of giving Mariota a chance to exploit them with Byrd.
And if not Byrd, it could be Zaccheaus, who was one of the top two producers in the Atlanta receiving game on a weekly basis until two weeks ago. Granted, we're not talking about massive point values, but when 1-2 plays can generate low-end or mid-range fantasy starter production, you may be in a situation where you have to consider it.
Byrd's snap count in Week 8 jumped to 34, and with Cordarrelle Patterson returning soon, if not this weekend, the play-action game will be more effective, which could create even more pressure for opposing safeties to bite hard on Pitts and London to the benefit of Byrd.
Fantasy Advice For Byrd (And Zaccheaus)
Byrd has been the No.15 receiver for the past two weeks in PPR formats, and while stranger things have happened, the likelihood of Byrd sustaining this production is low based on the sheer fact that his first game with more than one target this year came last week. Even if he earns 4-6 targets a week, the fact that many of them are vertical shots also reduces the likelihood of success.
Throw in the fact that he's often the second read, and that's another negative for his fantasy potential.
Yet, Pitts is seeing more targets. Although his 39 targets are 10 fewer than Atlanta's leader, Drake London, Pitts has seen 17 targets to London's 10 during the past three weeks, and Byrd's alignment next to Pitts is important when considering Mariota.
Mariota, like most NFL quarterbacks, can read the entire field, but it is not the strength of his game from the pocket. He does his best work reading the full field after he breaks the pocket. This is why I've been telling you since early September that with London and Pitts, their weekly fantasy production is one or the other but not both.
They are often working on opposite sides of the field, and Mariota isn't likely to find them as that third or fourth read in these situations. He's more likely to run or attack deep to a receiver on the same side of the field where he began. There is one game this entire year where both players had some level of fantasy effectiveness, a 27-23 victory against Seattle when Pitts earned 5-87-0 and London 3-54-1.
Pitts is the first read in a lot of these looks. It means if Byrd continues being the guy next to Pitts, he's the defacto second read in situations where most safeties and linebackers will overplay the potential Pitts target and leave Byrd open for high-leverage opportunities with healthy points potential, even with a smaller target share.
I'm not telling you to value Byrd like a fantasy starter. Consider him an emergency bye-week option who gives you a puncher's chance rooted in actual football. If play in DFS and play a ton of lineups, Byrd might be a swing for the fences that few will consider that might also help you.
If you don't really need Byrd but have the luxury to hold onto a player or two who might buck expectations and deliver consistent value, it wouldn't hurt to consider Byrd if you don't have anyone viable that you're hanging onto right now.
Good luck!
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