2025 Fantasy Review: The Gut Check No. 672

Matt Waldman reviews his preseason Gut Checks and shares players and analysis worth a second look for 2026.

Matt Waldman's 2025 Fantasy Review: The Gut Check No. 672 Matt Waldman Published 12/23/2025

© Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images fantasy

Worth A Second Look for 2026

Here's a list of features and prominent players from various features this year that I still stand behind as players to watch and/or acquire, depending on the format.

These pieces are worth a second look for those of you building rosters or considering emerging talents in 2026. 

Short-Term (2026-27)

Long-Term (2027-Beyond)

2025 Gut Checks Review

Let's look at my Pre-Draft Brain Dump in mid-August and what I think now. To jog your memory, this column was about a lot of things...

  • Players and situations I like.
  • Players and situations I dislike.
  • Players and situations where I am ambivalent.
  • Players and situations where my emotions are getting in the way.
  • Players I have no reason for drafting, but I'm tempted.
  • Players I have no reason to avoid, but I'm hiding from them. 
  • Players and situations where I'm generally confused. 
  • Fantasy situations where I ask myself if I am crazy or if everyone else is? 

Get the keys to the dump truck and let's roll. 

1. Ja'Marr Chase Hasn't Reached Ceiling

My August View: I had Chase at 120 receptions, 1,632 yards, and 17 scores -- slightly down from 2024, but good enough for the top spot on my board. I expected Joe Burrow to spread the ball around enough that Tee Higgins would fall short of 1,000 yards. 

If Higgins and one of Jermaine Burton or Andrei Iosivas got hurt, I would have considered buying high on Chase because career production could be in sight. 

December Thoughts: Chase's 110 receptions, 1,256 yards, and 5 scores after 14 weeks project to 134 receptions, 1,525 yards, and 6 touchdowns if he maintains his season-long production pace. 

The receptions and yardage are close to my projections,  but the touchdowns are well shy of the exceptional production I projected, thanks in large part to Joe Burrow missing half of the year. We're talking a 66-point difference from the touchdowns alone.

Projecting high touchdown totals is always significant risk. It was too aggressive. 

2. Don't Be Afraid of Christian McCaffreyDerrick Henry, or Saquon Barkley

My August View: If a running back has a strong offensive line, a track record of high volume, a capable quarterback, and a quarterback who can gain yardage with his feet, don't overthink it.  

December Thoughts: McCaffrey is RB1, Henry is RB12, and Barkley is RB13. I've long advised that trying to hit the RB1 targets is more important than hitting the No.1 RB overall bull's eye. In other words, focus on high-volume starters, not upside options who haven't proven they will get the workload of an elite back. 

3. Jahmyr Gibbs is Good, But the Change In Usage Isn't A Fantasy Positive

My August View: Gibbs will see more time split from the formation as a receiver. The initial gut reaction in this space is that he's going to build on his already excellent 2024 campaign as a top-three fantasy option at his position. 

Gibbs already earned 1,929 yards and 20 TDs from scrimmage last year -- the 95th-best total among running backs in history. For Gibbs to earn more from scrimmage, it will have to come more from the ground than through the air. 

This seems counterintuitive, but follow the logic of the scheme and the game. In this case, your gut is not your friend...

...Go against your gut reaction because it's more likely that Gibbs helps the offense with his expanded role in the passing game than he earns a massive boost in production for fantasy GMs. 

The only way this boost comes is if the Lions suffer two or more injuries to their core starters in the passing game or if David Montgomery is out for more than five games. Otherwise, expect similar, or even slightly less production from Gibbs this year -- not more. 

December Thoughts: Gibbs is the No.2 fantasy RB overall with 1662 yards and 17 TDs from scrimmage this year. He's on pace for 1,884 yards and 19 TDs from scrimmage. 

Montgomery didn't get hurt, but his offensive line was not healthy. It impacted the interior running game. You could take some creative license and say this was the poetic equivalent of Montgomery missing time because the injuries to the line changed how the staff deployed its backs. 

There's some truth to my assessment of the dynamics that would have to occur for Gibbs to reach the heights he has. He did, and congratulations to Gibbs' GMs who invested in him early. 

4. More Than A Gut Feeling: Davante Adams Is the Ram to Draft

My August View: I liked Adams more than Nacua this year and felt Adams was more QB-proof due to his red-zone and man-to-man skills. I preferred the combo of Malik Nabers or Nico Collins paired with Adams at their ADPs to Nacua. 

December View: Nacua has been dominant with 335 fantasy points as WR1. Adams has been WR7 with 223 points. There's no doubt I was wrong about the valuation of Nacua vs. Adams. 

However, if you followed my advice for the early rounds and grabbed one of my top running backs, McCaffrey, and you got Nico Collins and Adams, you probably were just as happy, if not happier. 

If you wound up with Collins and either Henry or Barkley, you might still be feeling good. If you grabbed Nabers and Adams, my condolences. 

Adams has nearly twice as many touchdowns as Nacua, and Nacua has twice the receptions and yardage. While I was correct about the red-zone production where man-to-man coverage gets a lot of value, Adams' presence did more to open up Nacua's game everywhere else.

We saw the same with Cooper Kupp's man-to-man prowess in the same areas. It was the thing I missed about this dynamic in August.  

5. Don't Dip Out on Brock Bowers

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a PRO subscription.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Share This Article

More by Matt Waldman

 

The Top 10: Week 17

Matt Waldman

Featuring fantasy-oriented insights rooted in film-driven football analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

12/23/25 Read More
 

The Replacements: Week 16

Matt Waldman

A curated list of preemptive pickups poised to emerge before the rest of your league is aware, along with candidates who could contribute due to unexpected events.

12/18/25 Read More
 

Roundtable: Unlikely Playoff Starters

Matt Waldman

The Footballguys roundtable discusses potential playoff starters who've emerged from no where in recent weeks.

12/18/25 Read More
 

Roundtable: What to Make of Trevor Lawrence

Matt Waldman

The Footballguys roundtable discusses Trevor Lawrence's hot streak, why it's happening, and if it will continue.

12/18/25 Read More
 

Roundtable: The Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes

Matt Waldman

The Footballguys roundtable discusses the value of the Chiefs' fantasy options without Patrick Mahomes under center.

12/18/25 Read More
 

Roundtable: Fantasy True/False

Matt Waldman

The Footballguys roundtable discusses fantasy players and scenarios that are on the minds of fantasy GMs.

12/18/25 Read More