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Touchdown scoring can be highly variant from year to year. Those who score a high number of touchdowns in one season can struggle to do so the following season, even on a similar volume of receptions. One way to look at these players is how they scored in non-touchdown statistics compared to their overall scoring. Another is the percentage of a player’s production that came from touchdowns. Below are five players who were highly dependent on touchdowns in 2021, looking at whether they will repeat in 2022.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay

In 2021, Mike Evans finished WR9 overall, but 14 touchdowns boosted him significantly. Evans finished WR24 in non-touchdown scoring, which was 15 spots better than his WR9 overall finish. On the season, 32% of his scoring came from touchdowns, which was the third-highest scoring at the position among qualifiers. Evans was seventh in expected touchdowns but finished second in touchdowns at the wide receiver positions (14). He is in a high-value role in the Tampa Bay offense and could benefit from increased volume.

DK Metcalf, Seattle

DK Metcalf had 12 receiving touchdowns on 75 receptions in 2021. Metcalf finished at WR15 but finished WR27 in non-touchdown scoring. 29.5% of his scoring was on touchdowns, the fifth-highest percentage of scoring by touchdowns. Russell Wilson has a career 6.2% touchdown rate, well above the NFL average, and the loss of Wilson could hold Metcalf’s 2022 season back.

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona

DeAndre Hopkins had a down season playing in only nine games in 2021. Overall, he caught eight touchdowns on 42 receptions, and touchdowns accounted for 32.6% of his scoring, the second most touchdown reliant of any player with over 40 receptions. Hopkins is facing a six-game suspension to start the season and could be a discount for a player expecting close to two-thirds of a touchdown per game when he plays.