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Touchdown scoring can vary wildly from year to year. Red zone usage and luck on longer touchdowns can have a massive sway on quarterback touchdown scoring in one season before things break against the quarterback the following year. Below are four quarterbacks who may be candidates for bounceback after low touchdown rates in 2022.
A lot of things went wrong for Trevor Lawrence in 2021. The most consequential in terms of fantasy scoring was his 2.0% touchdown rate, well below the league average. Lawrence’s 12 touchdowns were almost half of the 21 expected touchdowns based on his usage. Lawrence’s touchdown underperformance was historical, as Laviska Shenault Jr was one of only five wide receivers since 1970 to have 60 receptions without a touchdown. Lawrence had 56 attempts in the red zone in 2022, the 16th-most, with only seven touchdowns. By way of reference, only four other quarterbacks had more than 40 red zone passing attempts with fewer than 10 red zone touchdowns: Daniel Jones (five touchdowns on 42 attempts), Sam Darnold (seven touchdowns on 41 attempts), and Zach Wilson (six touchdowns on 41 attempts). The coaching change and better luck should allow Lawrence to rebound in 2022.
Justin Fields was similarly low on the touchdown rating, ranking with the fifth worst touchdown rate (2.6%). Fields was expected for nearly 13 touchdowns and only managed 7, only converting five of his 31 red zone throws into touchdowns. Fields will have an entirely new coaching staff which should benefit him. One thing that is unlikely to hurt Fields is the loss of Allen Robinson, who only was targeted four times in the red zone in 2021, with three catches, 16 yards, and one touchdown.
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